“Eye candy” at the movieplex is increasingly becoming more and more dazzling, attempting to attract an audience on spectacle alone. And of all the “technical” aspects of the filmmaking medium, the arena of visual effects is perhaps the only discipline upon which a studio would try to sell a film outright.

Visual effects work is also becoming more and more expensive, sometimes taking twice as long as physical production to implement. And yet, while the work of an entire team of individuals goes into creating the visual effects of a given motion picture, only four members of the crew are ultimately eligible to share an Academy Award nomination when the time comes.

It’s not surprising that most of the nominees in this category are “the films that pay the bills” if you will, with blockbusters making up the vast majority of the nominees. With the exception of “What Dreams May Come” in 1998, the last ten winners of this award have all been among the top grossing endeavors in their respective years.

There are only three nominees per year in this category (probably because many films have little substantial reliance on visual effects). The category also has a two-stage nomination process. Before nomination morning, a group of seven finalists is announced in a “bake-off.” A committee screens the seven films and chooses the nominees from this lot. Now that sound editing has abandoned this practice, the visual effects category remains only one of two (the other being Best Makeup) to use this method of choosing nominees.

Let’s take a look at the strongest contenders this year.

“Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” has all the makings not only of a surefire nominee but also the likely winner. Extremely reliant on visual spectacle, not only in its oceanic action sequences, but also in creating the characters of Davy Jones and his entire crew (with the exception of Stellan Skarsgård’s Bootstrap Bill), the work was undoubtedly painstaking and extremely challenging. The work is also integrated almost flawlessly into the film. That “Pirates” has claimed a mammoth box office intake is just gravy, not to mention the fact that the effects work was supervised by three-time nominee John Knoll (still awaiting his first win).

“Superman Returns” is looking pretty solid for a berth as well. The sheer size of the visual effects crew is staggering, including Oscar winners Neil Corbould and Mark Stetson. The work is also majestic (and EXPENSIVE), and it is integral to almost every scene in the movie. Some might argue that there is a lack of passion for the film itself (it did lose lots of money) – never a good sign in any category. But really…what would replace it?

“The Fountain” was seemingly on track for a nomination before it fell flat at the Toronto and Venice Film Festivals. (And in all honesty, it’s not very good). That’s never a promising sign, especially as no one on the effects team has ever garnered Oscar love before. While the film is a visual treat, the effects work is not the sort of CGI-intensive accomplishment that screams out “Oscar fodder!” Nor is the film likely to rake in a significant amount of money.

”The Prestige” from the young and talented director Christopher Nolan certainly looks visually impressive. I’d venture to say that the cinematography, art direction and costume design could all be bona fide contenders this awards season. But what of the visual effects work? Much like Nolan’s “Batman Begins,” my suspicion is that the achievement will probably be heavily intensive on camera work without a lot of the showy CGI the branch has warmed up to in recent years. We’ve come a long way since the practical effects of films like “Blade Runner,” for better or worse.

“X-Men: The Last Stand” made the most money of the “X-Men” trilogy. It also has the splashiest visual effects, with Oscar winner John Bruno among its supervisors. “Harry Potter and the Prisoner of Azkaban” managed to find a nomination here two years ago after its two predecessors failed to make the cut. Alas, “Prisoner of Azkaban” had the best reviews of the “Harry Potter” movies at that point. This installment of the “X-Men” series was widely acknowledged as the weakest of the trilogy. It would therefore be rather odd for this film to be the only “X-Men” movie to enjoy the moniker “Oscar nominee.”

“Eragon” looks like a potential train wreck in the eyes of this viewer. Much like “Poseidon” (a film whose flop status will almost certainly keep it out of the race), I suspect long-time visual effects supervisor Stefen Fangmeier’s directorial debut could be a disaster with critics and may not draw in the audiences Fox might expect. The trailer was certainly dreadful, in any case. If anything is in the cards Oscar-wise, however, that would be Best Visual Effects. Dragons, after all, are bound to necessitate top-notch CGI.

“Pan’s Labyrinth” from director Guillermo del Toro might certainly end up deserving of a nomination here. Recently submitted as Mexico’s official entry in the Foreign Film race, the film has been considered a visual spectacle by a host of admirers. However, it would be unusual for a foreign-language feature to enter the category most embracing of the films that, again, “pay the bills.”

When the dust of this year’s visual effects race finally settles, I’d look to one of the branch’s favorite sights to see: talking animals. This year, such a peculiarity shall be very prominent in “Charlotte’s Web.” With special effects being supervised by Clay Pinney (Oscar-winner for “Independence Day”) and visual effects being supervised by John Berton (of “The Mummy” and “Men in Black” fame), there is reason to expect the work to be exceptional. With an amazing cast of vocal talent, Dakota Fanning in the lead and a beloved book to sell on which to sell the film, there’s also reason to suspect it could be a big hit. Assuming “Pirates of the Caribbean: Dead Man’s Chest” and “Superman Returns” are looking good for a mention, I’d bank on the third slot being “Charlotte’s Web”’s to lose.

So that’s the way I see the visual effects race right now. And year after year, it is one of the races that changes the least during the course of the year. That is probably because the contenders seem relatively striking from afar – but then again, who expected “Star Wars” to miss out on a nomination last year…honestly?

Next week…we’ll take an initial glance at Best Cinematography.