So, with SAG, PGA and ASC out of the way, and with WGA still to come in a matter of hours, I guess it’s worth mentioning that the big daddy guild is announcing tomorrow: the Directors Guild of America (DGA). Now’s as good a time as any to take a stab at guessing the nominees…
The DGA has been one hell of an Oscar Best Picture barometer for the last decade or so. Last year was the first real hiccup as the guild only nailed three of the eventual five nominees with their director choices. 2006 saw one misfire (but we all still figured “Dreamgirls” was in around this time two years ago). Then it was four years in a row five-for-five until we have another hiccup, Ridley Scott making it in for “Black Hawk Down” and Christopher Nolan (in the mix again this year) for “Memento.”
After that, the general trend was four-for-five with some 100 percents thrown in here and there, but you get the picture. This is, more often than not, quite the prognosticative (that’s so not a word) guild. With the PGA clearly establishing a consensus of sorts (not that those five films haven’t been the obvious contenders for weeks upon weeks), I see no real reason to get creative right now, so I’m going with the following:
David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Christopher Nolan, “The Dark Knight”
Ron Howard, “Frost/Nixon”
Gus Van Sant, “Milk”
Danny Boyle, “Slumdog Millionaire”
There are only two filmmakers that I think have a shot of cracking this quintet: Woody Allen for “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” and, perhaps more so, Darren Aronofsky for “The Wrestler.” John Patrick Shanley and “Doubt” showing up would truly shock me and Andrew Stanton is not eligible for “WALL-E,” so the field is rather thin.
What are you thinking?
I almost let this one slip by without taking a stab at it. It’s all happening!
It’s a lovely thing when you realize, at least part of the way through adulthood, that we still possess the ability to surprise ourselves. When left to graze at leisure, the mind can stumble upon some unexpected notions, frequently overriding the conclusions we thought we had reached after twelve months of watching, writing and (occasionally over-) thinking. And more often than not, it knows best.
It’s no secret that I don’t expect 2008 to be remembered as a banner year for cinema, though with that said, there are plenty of exceptional films to be remembered.
Before we get to the end of the month here I thought I’d go ahead and toss up another set of winner predictions. This’ll be the last pre-nom set. I’ll go back to them next month, probably the day of the nominations announcement. But for now, it’s really all blind guessing, as always.
Having been a film critic for more than a quarter of a century now (my God) and a film junkie for more than 40 years, I have never gotten over the joy of surprise when an actor or actress comes out of left field with a performance of such brilliance it eliminates every single bad performance or bad film they have ever been associated with.
I know I shouldn’t get upset. As Sasha Stone over at Awards Daily repeatedly intones, when it comes to awards analysis, “the trick is not minding.” You should coolly observe the trends, learn from them and be guided always by your head rather than your heart.
One of the wearying things about the sheer multitude of critics’ awards (next up: the Northwestern Topeka Women Film Critics Society awards) is that there is dispiritingly little variety in their picks. I love “Man on Wire” too, but it’s hardly the only award-worthy documentary out there. Ditto “Let the Right One In” in the foreign-language field, or various other names we’ve been hearing an awful lot of this past fortnight.
Just to say it once more, because I’ve certainly brought it up enough, 2008 was not a good year for film-goers.
In 1994, Woody Allen’s masterful “Bullets Over Broadway” was not really on anyone’s charts as a potential Oscar nominee. A very funny film about a playwright who enlists a gangster to help him bring life and reality to his play, it was one of Allen’s best works with hysterically funny performances from John Cusack, the great Dianne Wiest (who won an Oscar), Chazz Palminteri, Jennifer Tilly, Jack Warden, Mary Louise Parker, Rob Reiner, Jim Broadbent, and Tracey Ullman. The film premiered here at the Toronto International Film Festival with excellent reviews, but it seemed overshadowed that season by Quentin Tarantino’s “Pulp Fiction,” without question the movie of the year.
As ever, this morning’s Golden Globe
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