As more films have been unleashed, the race for the visual effects Oscar now appears clearer than it did three months ago. I’m starting to feel the race for the final three will really be down to a handful of films.
As I explained in August, a shortlist of seven films will be announced in December or January. After the branch screens the films, the three nominees will be announced on the same day as all the other categories. We can expect the nominees to be big budget films – and also big hits, which is why how they perform on release is so important.
Summer titles such as “Night at the Museum: Battle of the Smithsonian” and “G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra” strike me as highly unlikely to survive to the year’s end. Nor do I believe “Harry Potter and the Half-Blood Prince” will able to distinguish itself enough from its predecessors, only one of which was nominated here.
Spike Jonze’s “Where the Wild Things Are” did not have the reliance on visual effects that I thought would be necessary for a nomination and I frankly doubt its chances. “Watchmen,” on the other hand, has slightly more potential in my opinion but still remains almost too innovative for a berth here.
The two summer films which I do fully expect to be in the running had very different critical reception – though I’m not sure if that will determine their fate in this category. I felt significantly dumber after watching “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen.” That said, the box office was nothing short of massive, as were the effects. It’s certainly still among the top contenders.
*All historic figures cited are adjusted to today’s dollars.
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Apologies for the lateness today. I’m hammering this out on the plane en route to Los Angeles. God bless Virgin America/on-board Wi-Fi.
I haven’t “G.I. Joe: The Rise of Cobra” yet. I wasn’t one of the Paramount chosen and I’ve been moving my girlfriend up to San Francisco this weekend, but at some point, we do plan to dish out our hard-earned cash in town for a look-see. Color me curious.
*All historical figures are adjusted to today’s dollars



*All historical figures are adjusted to today’s dollars.