We have officially relocated to our new home at HitFix. So come on over to the new URL — hitfix.com/incontention — and join the on-going goings-on. All of yesterday’s material is backdated there and patiently awaits, so feel free to continue the discussion there.

If you’re thinking to yourself right now, “Wait, huh?,” then fear not. All your answers can be found here and here.

You can comment as a guest at HitFix just as you can here, but I recommend registering for an account with them. Keeps it nice and organic. The link for that is at the op right of the main page, or go directly here.

This page will be up for a very brief transitional period. Soon it will redirect you to the new location and later on, all the content here will have magically migrated over.

InContention.com, signing off.

As we move out of the Toronto fray, Venice and Telluride already a memory, we look to the season ahead. The starting gun echo of those three early fall festivals is beginning to fade away, and with the dust settled or settling, it’s interesting to note the lack of an inarguable emerging player. In fact, the only thing Toronto really did was heat up the Best Foreign Language Film conversation.

In recent years, films like “Brokeback Mountain,” “Juno,” “Slumdog Millionaire” and “The King’s Speech” have bubbled up in this frame as real contenders to take the lead in the Best Picture field. But nothing at this point really seems to have the kind of stranglehold on things those films had.

Alexander Payne’s “The Descendants,” with George Clooney front and center, is well-liked, but few really think it has the goods to be a significant Best Picture threat. Clooney’s own “The Ides of March” has enough detractors to raise doubt that it will be an across-the-board Academy favorite, while “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” — freshly opened in the UK — is happy to just be making the case for a nomination at the moment.

The Weinstein Company’s “The Artist,” from director Michel Hazanavicius, has continued a conversation that began in Cannes. But the overall vibe is that the victory will be landing in the field, not leading it (though who knows with these modest returns).

Really, with everything that’s screened in any real capacity right now, if you held the vote today, “The Help” would probably win Best Picture.

What this all could mean is that, as the LA Times’ Stephen Zeitchik and Nicole LaPorte proposed last weekend, modest indie, festival-driven cinema might not have much of a seat at the table this year, leaving the spoils for studio offerings. But what it says to me is that the strategy to dodge the festival circuit might have paid off crucially this year.

Peaking early in an Oscar season is always unfortunate. It establishes an expectation at the beginning of a long road. And voters always want something that at least has a whiff of freshness. So studios with films they think have the goods — like Paramount with “Young Adult” and Warner Bros. with “J. Edgar” — will not have to endure that consistent scrutiny from the start.

Jason Reitman has taken each of his films to the Toronto Film Festival, choosing Telluride as a sneak preview launching pad for the last two — “Juno” and “Up in the Air.” But this year, he and Paramount held “Young Adult” back for fear of overexposure.

Warner Bros., meanwhile, has recently brought Clint Eastwood’s work to the New York fest in order to build a sophisticated word of mouth, but it’s never really gone anywhere (largely because the films haven’t really brought the goods). This year, the studio opted for an AFI Fest bow for “J. Edgar” (as did Paramount last year with “The Fighter”), which comes in November as an addition to an on-going conversation. Word is the film wasn’t ready in time for New York, but nevertheless, getting an easy Los Angeles premiere out of the deal will probably have a bigger impact anyway.

Then there are the films that were never meant for the festival circuit, like Steven Spielberg’s one-two punch in “War Horse” and “The Adventures of Tintin: The Secret of the Unicorn,” David Fincher’s “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” and Stephen Daldry’s “Extremely Loud and Incredibly Close.” Each of these could get the added boost of not having to rise to an elevated bar.

The flip side of all of this are the held-in-check expectations that will greet this year’s festival crop. Without frothing-at-the-mouth appreciation comes the opportunity for these films to still be a discovery of sorts later in the season. That’s beneficial, as well.

What this all adds up to, for me, is the potential for a competitive late-season frame for these titles, as well as the opportunity for something unseen to really capitalize (if, indeed, there are studios holding onto anything with an eye on weak spots).

It’s refreshing, for once, to not see a clear line to the Kodak. Last year, “The King’s Speech” was looking like the heart vote and the likely winner out of Telluride and Toronto, while “The Social Network” was screening simultaneously in New York and Los Angeles, kick-starting conversation around that film as a more high brow choice. The narrative was already set, and the road was long and grinding from there. Maybe that helps explain most of the restless, frustrating fatigue that set in as Phase One was barely in the books last season.

Don’t get me wrong. There are some interesting variables in the mix from the early September reveals. Brad Pitt, for instance, looks to be a threat in the Best Actor field for “Moneyball.” And he might find some company in that discussion should “Barrymore” and “Rampart” get solid distribution and campaign strategies in place, as Christopher Plummer and Woody Harrelson have established themselves as formidable. But there’s so much more on the horizon, and all of it will have its say.

So I’m excited and hopeful that the season is, finally, something of an unknown in mid-September rather than nearly ready for a postmortem. Bring it on.

And what a perfect time to be staring down a clear, open road of possibilities, because with that, posting at InContention.com draws to a close. It feels good to rattle off one more Off the Carpet column in this space before turning off the lights, and now, onward and upward.

Tomorrow, we’ll officially be relocated over at HitFix. Over the course of a few months, the archived content from here will be moved over to that space and, before long, the transition will be fully complete. (Everything from today will show up backdated there when we launch.) But all new material will be over there from now on. There will be a redirect post here as soon as everything is good to go, and after a while, the incontention.com URL will send you straight there.

It’s a good time for the change-over, as the season is about to really start roaring.  Guy’s first edition of The Long Shot this year will turn up there on Wednesday, and then, a day later, Gerard’s Tech Support preview piece.

For now, one more time, I point you to our Contenders section, which has been updated in full. The sidebar predictions currently reflect all changes. (Note: We won’t have the Contenders section fully functional at HitFix for another week or so, but this page will be here for a bit, so you can see where I currently stand. No more updating of those until we get it off the ground over there.)

So that’s that. Once more, allow me to say thank you for making InContention.com such a great place. Here’s looking forward.

[Photo: Warner Bros. Pictures, Paramount Pictures, Touchstone Pictures]

I don’t want to write too much about “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” right now because, point blank, I want to see it again and digest and — gasp! — consider.

For now, though, I’ll start with this: It’s an impeccably made, satisfyingly dense piece of work from director Tomas Alfredson. It’s the rare film that is a slow burn but nevertheless moves along at a clip, with a very well-honed editorial sense, I might add.

The thing is, I saddled up to the film this afternoon without knowing the source material or bothering to investigate it much. I’ve never read John le Carre’s novel (I will) and I haven’t seen the 1979 British mini-series starring Alec Guiness (I will). And the vibe I get is it would be helpful to come to the new film with a modicum of knowledge on that, but it’s no less satisfying. It just means a second look is in order, and I’m all for it, because you come away with an extreme reverence for craft here.

Guy saw the film on a rainy day in Venice and offered a perfectly-reasoned take. As I go back and read through it for the first time now, I see it matches my own quite closely. One thing he brought up was the production design from Maria Djurkovic, and while that might not be the sexiest element to start in on, it was nevertheless one of the big takeaways for me here.

Each environment is so meticulously decorated to at times staggeringly profound thematic levels. Whether it’s a dismantled parade dragon in the street, a room of boxed-in chandeliers across from London’s Parliament or the sound-proofed conference room of Britain’s MI6, aka the Circus, the design of the film is telling the story just as much as the writing, Alfredson’s direction or the incredible ensemble performance.

Hoyte Van Hoytema’s camera captures these sets and everything that populates them with an icy objectivity, while Dino Jonsäter’s film editing, as mentioned, makes this complex yarn glide effortlessly along, smartly offering just enough to push forward and yet dialing it back for the performances to take center stage in quieter moments when necessary.

And on those performances — well, where to begin? I’m already getting into a higher word count than I wanted, but let me say Gary Oldman conveys tightly wound awareness and cool collection with equal measure, giving one of his most restrained yet affecting performances to date.

The vast ensemble is littered with highlights, and while I agree with Guy that Tom Hardy’s work is noteworthy for its knowing intelligence and breezy casualness, I was most taken by Benedict Cumberbatch’s peaks and valleys. The actor — who pops up in three films this year — balances gripping paranoia and tension one moment while emoting heart-wrenching loss the next.

Wait, Mark Strong also deserves to be singled out, but enough. I want to sit on it a bit more, give it another look and circle back around. I’m sure Focus would rather string this out a bit given that the US release is two months out, but the film has already landed in the UK, so if there are any Brits who’d like to join in here, feel free to engage in the comments section. More from me on it as we push through the season.

[Photo: Focus Features]

One of the great unknowns of the season (as I’ll get into momentarily with today’s Off the Carpet column) is Clint Eastwood’s “J. Edgar.” Well today, we finally get a glimpse of the film via the trailer at Apple. The first thing of note, naturally, is Leonardo DiCaprio’s accent, which seems to come in and out in just these few minutes. Also notable is the makeup, which I’ve been saying for a while will be transformative and most certainly something to watch for in that race. Finally, I’ve been hearing that Judi Dench gives the supporting performance to watch for, and that seems evident here. Check out the trailer by clicking on the image below or watch an embed after the jump.

• Anne Thompson talks “Rampart” with writer/director Oren Moverman. [Thompson on Hollywood]

• Greg Ellwood ponders who got an Oscar bounce out of Toronto. [Awards Campaign]

• Simon Kinnear on the clothing designs of “Drive.” [Clothes on Film]

• On “Contagion” taking the number one spot at the box office last weekend, Patrick Goldstein observes, “When people are beset by anxiety, they often turn to movies that allow them a vicarious release.” [The Big Picture]

• With “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy” opening across the pond, Terrence Rafferty reflects on John le Carré adaptations through the years. [New York Times]

• Meanwhile, William Boyd calls the novel le Carré’s “masterwork” and offers up a dense primer on the material. [The Guardian]

• Paramount hangs hopes on Eddie Murphy’s Oscar gig, moves his film “A Thousand Words” to March 23. [Deadline]

[Photo: Entertainment Weekly]

I can’t say I’m all that aware yet of Nadine Labaki’s “Where Do We Go Now?,” which Guy recently called “a serious-minded comedy with musical elements that premiered to warm reviews in Cannes’ Un Certain Regard section, where it earned a special mention from the Ecumenical Jury.” But the film has swooped in and nabbed the Toronto Film Festival’s People’s Choice Award when many were predicting “The Artist” would charm its way to the prize. Expect a domestic distributor to pounce any day now.

The film was recently submitted by Lebanon into the foreign film race, and one of the runners-up in Toronto, Asghar Farhadi’s “A Separation,” was also slotted by Iran. So for a festival that usually paves the way for the major categories in an Oscar race (more on that tomorrow), Toronto has actually heated up the race for Best Foreign Language Film. Unexpected and, I might say, entirely refreshing, that.

The audience’s choice for Best Documentary went to “The Island President,” which I was sad to miss at Telluride. The Midnight Madness award went to “The Raid,” which blew up on Twitter the night it screened. Other awards went to “Monsieur Lazhar,” “Avalon,” “The First Man” and short film “Doubles with Slight Pepper.”

So now it looks like, just judging from what I’ve seen/heard from others, we have three solid contenders for a nomination in the foreign film category: “A Separation,” “In Darkness,” “Le Havre” and now, “Where Do We Go Now?” Guy expects “Pina” to get in, but I don’t see that happening, while “Attenberg” and “The Turin Horse” seem incredibly unlikely (but never discount the power of the executive committee).

[Photo: Pathé]

Disney found a somewhat soft spot for children’s films in the 2011 schedule to slot “The Lion King 3D,” and they came away with a healthy #1 take this weekend. Assuming you’re okay with that being added to the film’s already impressive overall take from the summer of 1994, it leap-frogs “Finding Nemo” to become the third-highest grossing animated film of all time. Now that I look at the figures, “Drive” actually opened on a lot more screens than I thought, but I’m nevertheless a bit surprised it bested “Straw Dogs” (which itself was even held in check by the still-chugging “The Help”).

(Courtesy: Exhibitor Relations)

So, it’s been a big week of announcements here at In Contention, and next week, a bigger week of changes. The current plan is to have the new digs off the ground on Tuesday, so we’ll have Monday to say our goodbyes. But it occurred to me I haven’t offered up a Cinejabber space for you to cut loose about any and everything in quite some time. So, let’s do that before we go.

I’m stoked that we’re going out with a bang on our “tell us what you thought” posts, as the “Drive” discussion is easily our most engaging and lively one yet. I saw the film again last night (I’m guessing it’s the first opening night film I’ve taken in in three years). It’s such a brilliant piece of work. I hope it does well this season.

I had lunch this afternoon with the soft-spoken and, following engagement on a studio film and the Toronto grind of last week, rather exhausted Bennett Miller. He’s very passionate about the themes and the main character of the film, as I knew he had to be, given how dense it is. One thing he said really stuck out: “Brad [Pitt] told me, ‘I’m proud of this movie, and I’m proud of it for how hard it was.’” Indeed, it was a “beautiful nightmare” getting “Moneyball” made, but Miller ended up giving the material a delicate touch and one that allowed it to work on his terms within the studio system. He’s proud of it for that, too. But more on all that later.

Let’s see. I’m excited for what is still an unknown season. I’ll get into this more in depth in Monday’s Off the Carpet column, but the festival circuit has done little to anoint any one contender this year, and that’s a welcome change.

I’m planning something longer on it, but I finally caught up to Thomas McCarthy’s “Win Win” yesterday. What a gem. McCarthy is a national treasure and no one even knows it. I’m so glad that guy is making movies.

The Redskins are undefeated (heh). The weather has cooled off here in Los Angeles. I’m hitting that stride of talking to smart people about their films and the choices they made along the way. I’m passionate about what I’ve seen and liked and I feel positive about what’s left to be seen this year. And, of course, I’m very stoked for our new venture with HitFix.

So that’s where I’m at. Feel free to cut loose with thoughts on this or that or things you’ve seen, whatever. This is your space. Open thread. Have at it one more time under the InContention.com banner.

[Photo: Columbia Pictures]

One last solicitation for thoughts today, on Rod Lurie’s “Straw Dogs” remake. I already offered my receptive opinion of the film, but I’m curious what everyone else has to say. So cut loose with your thoughts when/if you get around to it this weekend.

Lots has been written and spoken about “Drive” around these parts. Guy fell in love in Cannes. I hopped on board at Comic-Con. And now, it’s your turn to weigh in. The film opens nationwide today, and I imagine it’ll be a big priority for many of you. Come on back here when you get around to seeing it this weekend. We’d love to hear your thoughts.

Welcome to Oscar Talk.

In case you’re new to the site and/or the podcast, Oscar Talk is a weekly kudocast, your one-stop awards chat shop between yours truly and Anne Thompson of Thompson on Hollywood. The podcast is weekly, every Friday throughout the season, charting the ups and downs of contenders along the way. Plenty of things change en route to Oscar’s stage and we’re here to address it all as it unfolds.

It’s a bittersweet time. Barring any set-backs, this is the last time you’ll see an episode of Oscar Talk…in this space. As revealed earlier this week, In Contention is moving over to HitFix, aiming for as early as Monday of next week. So this 61st installment of the podcast is all she wrote for these white walls, but the fun will continue at the new destination a week from today. But, for now, with Anne on her last day of Toronto coverage, there is plenty to cover. So let’s see what’s on the docket today…

• With Toronto winding down, it’s worth taking note of early festival films looking for an added bump, like “The Artist” and “The Descendants.” Anne gives her take on how those films played up north.

• There were a few considerable bows at the festival, like Bennett Miller’s “Moneyball” (thumbs up from both of us), Oren Moverman’s “Rampart” (ditto) and Roland Emmerich’s “Anonymous” (ditto). Those are the ones we’ve both seen, so we discuss them at length.

• But is “Moneyball” an Academy movie? We both love it for various reasons, but we both seem to have the instinct that it’s not going to strike Oscar gold.

• Anne has also seen a few more films at the fest, like the Christopher Plummer-starrer “Barrymore” and Terrence Davies’s “The Deep Blue Sea.” Are their Oscar prospects merely part of the out-of-Toronto media frenzy that won’t amount to much? She offers her thoughts.

• We also get around to talking about “Take Shelter,” which is also playing Toronto and features, to my mind, the best performance of the year so far from Michael Shannon.

• Finally, reader questions. I tried to speed through more than usual, addressing queries regarding “Warrior”’s Oscar hopes after coming up short at the box office, the New York Film Festival’s acquisition road this year and potential unexpected contenders lurking on the periphery.

Have a listen to the new podcast below. If you make it to “Drive” this weekend, you’ll appreciate the lead-in music. If the file cuts off for you at any time, try the back-up download link at the bottom of this post. And as always, remember to subscribe to Oscar Talk via iTunes here.

Thank you for being such a devoted audience for Oscar Talk here at InContention.com. But close one door and open another, so we hope you’ll join us at HitFix next week.

Back-up download: Oscar Talk Episode 61

Speaking of “Drive,” I just read through Roger Ebert’s review and this pull quote stuck out to me as particularly cogent:

The key thing you want to feel, during a chase scene, is involvement in the purpose of the chase. You have to care. Too often we’re simply witnessing technology.

The great Albert Brooks took playful Twitter umbrage with my yanking him from the predicted five supporting actor contenders recently. I assure you (and him) that it’s a lack of faith in the Academy, which would enter uber-cool territory by giving him (or anything) a nod for this film, not a lack of faith in his work. He’s fantastic in the film and, well, nothing’s impossible. I’d be over the moon. Brooks and the rest of the team recently made the press rounds on the film. So, from our new partners at HitFix, via Awards Campaign:

We’ll have a “tell us what you thought” post on the film later today.

I don’t know if many of you are planning on taking in “The Lion King 3D,” a converted version of the 1994 animated classic that will be in theaters for a few weeks in advance of the film’s Blu-ray bow next month. But I figured I’d offer up a space for you to discuss it anyway. If you’re on the fence, I’d highly recommend it. As noted last month, I think it actually brings a lot of life to the film, which itself is already bursting with it. So head on back here to give us your thoughts if you happen to check it out this weekend.

• Scientists say “Contagion” is for real. [Associated Press]

• James Rocchi talks “The Ides of March” with Best Supporting Actress hopeful Evan Rachel Wood. [MSN Movies]

• Nicolas Winding Refn breaks down a scene from “Drive.” [Arts Beat]

As Magnolia Pictures turns 10, owner Todd Wagner says it’s not for sale and that VOD strategy is thriving. [Deadline]

• Anne Thompson wonders if Joseph Gordon-Levitt can ride Toronto goodwill all the way to an Oscar nod for his performance in “50/50.” [Thompson on Hollywood]

• Sasha Stone writes up the Best Actress field. [Awards Daily]

• Nathaniel Rogers has a few pressing Oscar questions to accompany his latest predictions. [The Film Experience]

• Finally, with Toronto reduced to a simmer, Jeff Wells distills the takeaways… [Hollywood Elsewhere]

• …as does David Poland. [The Hot Blog]

[Photo: Warner Bros. Pictures]

John Madden’s latest, “The Best Exotic Marigold Hotel,” is set for release. Contrary to rumor, it will stay on its March 9, 2012 release date (especially now that Fox Searchlight has filled its awards boat), but it nevertheless looks like the sort of film that could be a lighthearted awards play next year if they wanted it to be. Maybe. For now, the trailer has launched via Apple. Check it out by clicking the image below or watch an embed after the jump.

Here’s a nice change of pace. On the occasion of the UK opening of “Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy,” London’s Telegraph newspaper has commissioned actor Gary Oldman for his thoughts on director Francis Ford Coppola. It’s kind of random, though. Yeah, Oldman starred in Coppola’s 1992 film “Bram Stoker’s Dracula,” but there’s no real connection otherwise. Coppola has “Twixt” at Toronto right now, so there’s that, but whatever, I’m not complaining. It’s always nice to get this kind of perspective from an actor. Here’s a taste:

For me, Apocalypse Now is the peak of his career. So much so that I used a bit of it when I directed Nil By Mouth [1997] — that sequence when Dennis Hopper goes to Willard, who is Kurtz’s captive, and starts telling him about Kurtz (“What are they gonna say? That he was a kind man? That he was a wise man?”). Francis gave me that footage for free, which was very kind of him.

On working with the director:

It was quite something working with him [on Dracula], though I got the feeling that I wasn’t quite working with the same man who had made Apocalypse Now.

How does he deal with actors? He’s collaborative. Unusually for a movie, we had a rehearsal period — about four weeks at his vineyard in northern California. He’s opera, a big character. He’d cook us food, and there’d be lots of wine.

Francis likes to do a lot of takes, which I like, too — I don’t find it trying at all. Tomas [Alfredson, director of Tinker, Tailor, Soldier, Spy] likes to get it in one or two, which at times I found a little frustrating, but you have to find the rhythm of how people work. And I would say to Tomas. ‘At least give me three.’ So we made a deal.

More at The Telegraph.

[Photo: Universal Pictures]

It’s been a bit slow on the whole for acquisitions at Toronto, but one film I’ve kept an eye on is “Barrymore” (which we pointed to over the weekend as a potential Oscar play for Christopher Plummer). It absolutely seems like a powerhouse performance, but man, it’ll be hard to sell a one-man show. I imagine that’s partly what’s stalling a sale. In any case, the trailer is available via TIFF’s YouTube channel. Check it out by clicking the image below or watch an embed after the jump.

You know the drill. Fire off your queries and we’ll try to address a few. Keep in mind we’ll surely be talking plenty about Toronto so try to be specific otherwise. And since we didn’t get to any last week due to the rushed session, feel free to re-post something you really want addressed. If things pan out, this will likely be the last Oscar Talk under this roof. But we’re 60 episodes deep and we’ll keep going strong at HitFix, so don’t you worry.

I have to be honest and admit that sometimes I forget that Jon Stewart hosted the Oscars. Part of that is because the host is just so rarely memorable (everything that’s not novel starts to become a blur). And Stewart’s done it TWICE, mind. The first time (2006 ceremony), his dry “Daily Show” writers failed to hit the mark (though, now that I think about it, I was in the aisles over that Wylie Stateman bit). The second time, two years later, went over better but he had obviously dialed some things down.

Still, anyone who has hosted the Oscars twice is a go-to guy for advice any day of the week. It’s a demanding gig, not for the faint of heart. And if you do it twice, well, you’re probably a little crazy, but you also clearly love the showmanship of it all. Billy Crystal is generally associated with the job (he’s done it eight times and almost made it a ninth this year). But Bob Hope is of course the real king, having taken the stage on 18 occasions in his time.

So the news that Eddie Murphy was tapped as this year’s Oscarcast host is naturally a hot topic to cover with prior emcees. And over at Rolling Stone, Eric Bates has done just that, probing Stewart for his thoughts.

Says Stewart:

Listen, the last person I would give advice to is Eddie Murphy. He’s gonna fucking kill it. He’s the type of guy they haven’t had in a while. He’s a movie star, but he’s a great comic – sort of similar to Billy Crystal in his “multi-ability”…

With guys like me, you get the sense that at some level, deep down inside, we think it’s fucking ridiculous. Now that can make for a very entertaining show. But it’s good to mix it up.

The biggest problem of the show is the show. My favorite thing was when we showed one of their montages about all of these incredibly socially powerful films, and how Hollywood was a leader in the civil rights movement. I came back after the montage ended and said, “And racism was never a problem again.” You just felt the whole room go, “Hey, motherfucker! Who do you think you are?”

I still think the Condon/Mark/Jackman year was the freshest, classiest example of late, a show that never really dipped too far into the pompous sincerity Stewart describes at the end there, but always maintained a level of respect. It was like a giant cocktail gathering.

We’ll see how Ratner and company handle the festivities this year. I’m honestly (cautiously) optimistic. But one thing I’m definitely okay with is Murphy at the helm. I think it’s going to be a great, unique fit.

[Photo: Associated Press]

I feel like Guy was talking up Emily Watson’s performance in “Oranges & Sunshine” earlier in the year. I can’t remember. But the film tells the true story of the 300-year practice of sending poor or orphaned children to British settler colonies to help alleviate the shortage of labor. It’s the other pony in Cohen Media Group’s Oscar stable (after yesterday’s acquisition of “The Lady”), and today, courtesy of Thompson on Hollywood, we get our first look at the trailer. Click on the image below to see it or watch an embed after the jump.

• John Horn talks to FilmDistrict honcho Bob Berney about the flamboyant advertising of Nicolas Winding Refn’s “Drive.” [24 Frames]

• Dana Harris chats with “Albert Nobbs” stars Glenn Close and Janet McTeer. [indieWIRE]

• Oscilloscope picks up Andrea Arnold’s “Wuthering Heights” in Toronto. [Variety]

• Phil Brown sits down with “Dark Horse” director Todd Solondz. [Collider]

• Sasha Stone on this year’s knee-jerk Oscar predictions from around the web. [Awards Daily]

• Jeff Wells is on board for “Rampart.” [Hollywood Elsewhere]

• An 8-minute taste-tester reel of “The Girl with the Dragon Tattoo” screened before a press screening of “Straw Dogs” last night. [First Showing]

[Photo: FilmDistrict]

Everyone’s just been waiting to see who would pick up Luc besson’s “The Lady” out of Toronto, just for an excuse to go ahead and shuffle Michelle Yeoh over to the pile of likely Best Actress contenders. Yeoh stars in the film as Burmese opposition politician Aung San Suu Kyi and David Thewlis has a meaty part as her husband. Well, Mike Fleming reports at Deadline that a deal has been struck:

The Oscar race just got a little more interesting. EuropaCorp has made a U.S. distribution deal with Cohen Media Group for the Luc Besson-directed The Lady…to release the film for an Oscar-qualifying platform release late this year.

Outside of “Frozen River” — which Cohen Media Group produced (though it was distributed by Sony Pictures Classics in the States) — this would be the first real brush with awards season for the company. So I’m not sure what kind of infrastructure is in place to really get the film out there (Newmarket had a tough time with very little money for Peter Weir’s “The Way Back” last year), but Yeoh and Thewlis are definitely on the radar now that a strategy is percolating. Cohen will also have “Chasing Madoff” in the documentary race this year, as well as the Emily Watson-starrer “Oranges & Sunshine.”

[Photo: Cohen Media Group]

I should really write something about Rod Lurie’s “Straw Dogs” remake, which, naturally, has been met with a lot of skepticism ever since it was announced. “How dare someone tinker with Peckinpah,” etc. As if Peckinpah is beyond reproach. He’s not, I’d argue, and Lurie’s version of the novel that Peckinpah’s film was based upon — Gordon Williams’s “The Siege of Trencher’s Farm” — works in ways that film didn’t really want to.

The film features some dynamic acting from James Marsden and particularly Alexander Skarsgård (recognizable to most from TV’s “True Blood”). Marsden finds a lot of interesting rhythms in the re-purposed Dustin Hoffman role, this time set as screenwriter David Sumner, who heads off with his wife, Amy (Kate Bosworth), to her bayou hometown for a change of pace and scenery. And he carries the overall theme of the film well: fighting for one’s principles (which, interestingly enough, is a recurrent theme in Lurie’s work going way back).

But Skarsgård is extra creepy as the beefcake brute from Amy’s past, a former beau with a dose of obsession in his veins, and the slow boil that ultimately erupts in the story’s famed rape scene has a particularly unsettling trajectory. What lurks beneath the surface all along is well handled but never inaccessible.

Basically I’m saying Lurie walks a delicate line here and pulls off an interesting directorial departure. I still prefer his work on “The Contender” and “Nothing But the Truth,” but I always like to see filmmakers stretching and this was a smart step away from his usual strut.

Anyway, as mentioned, top marks for Skarsgård and Marsden. Bosworth almost internalizes too much here because the characterization is kind of vague, but then again, that kind of works for the character here and there. Also worth mentioning is James Woods, who chews the scenery as a hothead drunken former football coach who kick-starts the film’s bloody climax.

It doesn’t want to be your father’s “Straw Dogs” because the audience it’s aiming for, well, isn’t your father. But it’s well-played genre and a good post-summer piece of commercial cinema.

“Straw Dogs” opens nationwide this Friday.

[Photo: Screen Gems]

Deadline’s Pete Hammond already reported that this was imminent, but since it arrived on my doorstep this morning, it seemed worth conveying here. Summit Entertainment is first out of the gate this year with FYC screeners aimed at drawing attention back to Chris Weitz’s “A Better Life.”

I was a big fan of Weitz’s film, which hit the counter-programming slot this summer, particularly Demián Bichir’s affecting lead actor performance (which Mark Harris recently spotlighted in his first on-going season column). You’ll recall I spoke to Weitz about the film back in June, around the occasion of the film’s Los Angeles Film Festival bow. He noted at the time that he was very keen on pushing for some year-end kudos recognition for Bichir.

I started to get worried that the film would be lost in the shuffle after it failed to find much life at the box office. But Summit is really smart to push this out there now, after such campaigns for Melissa Leo (“Frozen River”), Jacki Weaver (“Animal Kingdom”) and Fox Searchlight’s “Once” in recent years got a big leg up by being first on the doorstep. Oscar recognition will be tough but I definitely think some Indie Spirit attention could be in the cards. Any awards season attention at all is a big win, of course, as it just means more people will see the film.

Here’s an excerpt from the Weitz interview that nicely conveys his thought process behind the film:

Everyone is constantly in their car, and when you’re in your car, you miss a tremendous amount…People are completely unaware of the person next door, of the person on the corner, of the neighborhood that they’re driving through only in a few brief flashes at 40 miles per hour. So I guess part of the aim of the film is to slow down and show a section of our culture, because it’s not just Mexican culture, it’s American culture.

“A Better Life” is set for release on DVD and Blu-ray October 18.

[Photo: Summit Entertainment]