Predict the weekend in societies

Posted by · 6:00 pm · February 17th, 2011

Anne and I will be briefly previewing the American Cinema Editors and Cinema Audio Society awards in tomorrow’s Oscar Talk, and maybe a little Motion Picture Sound Editors thrown in to boot.  All three will be announcing winners this weekend, while members of the Costume Designers Guild will put a bow on the guild season Tuesday night when they present their awards.

So, let’s start with the editors.  It’s one of the oldest industry organizations, going all the way back to 1961, and this year marks its 50th anniversary.  In that 50 year existence, the Society has awarded the eventual Oscar winner for Best Film Editing 35 times.

Additionally, 20 times their choice was also reflected in the Academy’s selection of Best Picture of the year (including four instances where the Society awarded a film that did not win Best Film Editing at the Oscars but still won Best Picture).

Now, with the silly statistics out of the way, you can see from the big picture that this group’s blessing isn’t as important for Best Picture hopefuls as some might have you believe.  Recent history indicates more of a dovetailing, though (seven out of the last 10 years the Eddie has gone to the Best Picture winner).  More impressive is the fact that this group has successfully foreshadowed the Best Film Editing winner for 18 of the last 20 years (though as of 2000 they’ve had double the opportunity to nail it, with the addition of a comedy/musical field).

Here’s the rub on “Inception.” No film that wasn’t nominated for an Oscar has ever won the ACE Eddie award.  That’s a steep hill to climb, but I think I’m feeling frisky enough to put a chip on Lee Smith to break that mold.  Interestingly enough, Christopher Nolan will be receiving the Golden Eddie Filmmaker of the Year award from the group the very same night.  Could that be considered enough recognition for the film?  Maybe.  Whatever the case may be, while some might think the safer pick is “The Social Network,” I say watch out for “The King’s Speech” to surprise here and, if so, take that all the way to an Academy win, too.

The comedy field, in a scant 10 years of existence, is generally a good place to predict the token musical.  But there isn’t one in the mix this year.  Last year’s “The Hangover” excepted, this prize rarely goes to a straight-forward job, so I’m thinking Chris Lebenzon wins his second Eddie in three years for “Alice in Wonderland,” but watch for “Scott Pilgrim vs. the World” as a surprise spoiler.

For animated films, I say “Toy Story 3,” while “Exit Through the Gift Shop” seems, to me, a fair bet for documentaries (though, given what they respond to in docs, “Waiting for Superman” could just as easily win).

Alright, still with me?  Let’s move on to the sound mixers.

The Cinema Audio Society is only 17 years old.  And its pick for best sound mixing has gone on to win the Oscar for same nine of those years, so a little more than half.  Most of those, however, came in the early years.  As of late, the group has been a little more discerning than the general Academy membership.

This year, I know there’s a lot of complaining about the “Inception” mix among the community, but it’s a titan that couldn’t be stopped here or with the Academy’s sound branch, regardless.  I wonder, though, if it’ll actually take the win here or not.  It’s a decent bet, if only because the competition might be perceived as somewhat thin (even if I disagree).

So I’m going to play it safe here and just expect the film to take it down, making it a very good weekend overall for the film.  I’d do cartwheels if “Black Swan” managed to win, though.

I was going to try my hand at picking the MPSE side of things, but flip a coin.  I won’t pretend to be as well-versed in that group’s voting peculiarities as the rest, but feel free to offer up your picks for that, the CAS and the ACE in the comments section below.

Another week and it’s all over.

[Photo: Warner Bros. Pictures]




→ 12 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , | Filed in: Daily

12 responses so far

  • 1 2-17-2011 at 6:34 pm

    DylanS said...

    Although “The Social Network” is my favorite editing of the year, I pray that they pick “Inception”. It’s such a momumental feat for the craft and its academy snub was ludicrous.

  • 2 2-17-2011 at 7:05 pm

    RHS said...

    Kris, am I reading this wrong? You write: “I think I’m feeling frisky enough to put a chip on Lee Smith to join Thomas Stanford and Françoise Bonnot as one of only three editors to win the Eddie without being nominated for an Oscar.”
    Both Thomas Stanford for “West Side Story” and Francoise Bonnot for “Z” were nominated for and won Oscars for Best Editing.

  • 3 2-17-2011 at 8:17 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Wow. Who needs a nap? This guy.

    Clearly I got my research tangled, i.e., reversed. NO film has won the Eddie without being nominated for the Oscar, so that’s an even steeper hill. And hey, at least now I know what two films won the Oscar without being nominated for an Eddie.

    Now, about that nap…

  • 4 2-17-2011 at 8:27 pm

    RHS said...

    I thought maybe you were just testing your loyal readers to see if we were really paying attention!

    Take that nap now!

  • 5 2-17-2011 at 8:29 pm

    JJ1 said...

    It’s late in phase 2 … we understand, Kris. :)

    ACE – I’ll go TSN
    CSA – I’ll go Inception

    Boring predics and somewhat populist, I know.

  • 6 2-17-2011 at 8:31 pm

    RHS said...

    Oh, meant to add earlier that “West Side Story” was released in 1961 (as I’m sure you know), not ’63. (Perhaps the Eddie to Stanford was awarded in ’62, but I don’t think ’63 would have applied in any case.)

  • 7 2-17-2011 at 9:19 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Yep, screwed that research up completely. Though he didn’t win the Eddie. Wasn’t even nominated, surprisingly enough.

  • 8 2-17-2011 at 9:31 pm

    Maxim said...

    Black Swan deserves the most and does so by far. Some films this year impressed with complex editing but Black Swan was both artistic, complicated and had an incredible rhythm. It’s probably my favorite aspect of the film overall.

  • 9 2-17-2011 at 9:41 pm

    DarkLayers said...

    Kris, also on the twenty year prediction thing, “Gladiator” and “Almost Famous” won ACE but “Traffic” nabbed the Oscar.

  • 10 2-17-2011 at 9:50 pm

    Andrej said...

    “I’d do cartwheels if “Black Swan” managed to win, though.”

    Kris doing cartwheels?! … I want to see this.

    Go Black Swan GOGOGO ☺ Make it happen!

  • 11 2-17-2011 at 10:05 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    Kris, also on the twenty year prediction thing, “Gladiator” and “Almost Famous” won ACE but “Traffic” nabbed the Oscar.

    Also, in 1995, Braveheart won ACE while Apollo 13 took the Oscar. Still, their strike rate is pretty overwhelming.

  • 12 2-17-2011 at 10:13 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    That’s a whole other stat I screwed up. Seriously taking that nap now.