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This weekend completes the trio of Guild awards with the most bearing on the Best Picture race, as the Directors’ Guild of America and the Screen Actors’ Guild dish out their prizes on Saturday and Sunday, respectively.
Following the Producers’ Guild’s surprise coronation of “The King’s Speech” last week, the next two days could help level the race — most are favoring “The Social Network” to fight back with a DGA gong, but the SAG Awards are more of a wild card.
A couple of SAG categories, of course, barely require discussion. In the lead acting races, there’s no reason whatsoever to suspect that Colin Firth and Natalie Portman won’t continue their joint march to the Oscar podium on Sunday. (If Annette Bening were to pull off a shocker, she’d be the first two-time Best Actress winner in the 17-year history of the awards, which somehow makes it seem even less likely.)
Neither can I really see a scenario in which Christian Bale loses Best Supporting Actor, given the Guild’s clear regard for “The Fighter” (it leads all nominees with “The King’s Speech”) and the fact that his chief competitor, Geoffrey Rush, has already been honored.
Best Supporting Actress is the place to look for an upset, as four nominees (sorry, Mila Kunis) stand a chance at victory. A win for teen first-timer Hailee Steinfeld would tilt the Oscar race in her favor, but I feel that Golden Globe and Critics’ Choice champ Melissa Leo, a longtime stalwart of film and television, is still the best bet to earn her peers’ approval.
The least predictable award of the night is also the biggest. Given that SAG treat the Best Ensemble category as their own Best Picture honor, the award has, in years past, been an indicator of shifting momentum in the Academy’s top race: “Shakespeare in Love” and “Crash” both foreshadowed their Oscar night upsets in this category. On the other hand, SAG sometimes simply votes for the film with the biggest and/or toniest ensemble, regardless of the film’s position in the race: wins for “Inglourious Basterds” and “Gosford Park” had little impact on the Best Picture derby.
As far as I can see, three films have a clear shot at the award. The youth and comparative inexperience of the “Social Network” ensemble would make it an atypical winner in the category — but at the same time, counting out Jesse Eisenberg’s long-shot Best Actor bid, this is the only place where voters can acknowledge the most acclaimed and awarded film in the race. (This factor made a similarly unlikely victor of “Slumdog Millionaire” two years ago.)
Of course, if “The King’s Speech” really is muscling in the season’s new frontrunner, the film — peppered as it is with beloved thesps ranging from Firth to Derek Jacobi — could easily take the win, and is probably the safest bet right now. (It would, however, be the first film to take both the ensemble award and a lead acting gong since “Chicago” eight years ago.)
On the other hand, if voters don’t feel like exporting the award, “The Fighter”‘s well-liked, well-known assembly of stars and character actors would make for popular winners in the category. However, while my head tells me otherwise, my unreliable gut says the season’s initial favorite regains its standing here.
Will win
Best Ensemble: “The Social Network”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Best Stunt Ensemble: “Inception”
Should win
Best Ensemble: “The Fighter”
Best Actor: Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Best Actress: Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Share your own predictions and/or preferences in the comments section. Meanwhile, Tom O’Neil has gathered a wide range of pundits’ picks in both the film and television categories — check ‘em out here.
[Photo: Paramount Pictures]
56 responses so far
1 1-28-2011 at 10:54 am
Lenny said...
Here are my SAG predictions
Best Ensemble: The King’s Speech
Best Actor: Colin Firth = The King’s Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman = Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale = The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo = The Fighter
Best Stunt Ensemble: Inception
If The King’s Speech takes the SAG ensemble, and Tom Hooper somehow upsets David Fincher for the DGA, then it’s over.
2 1-28-2011 at 10:54 am
Craig said...
I think I’m going to predict a win for The Fighter. Much like Basterds last year, it doesn’t have much of a shot in the grand scheme of things, but it does have the finest and deepest ensemble, and should therefore take home the top prize. That said, I wouldn’t begrudge a win for The Social Network.
3 1-28-2011 at 10:57 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
My chips are on:
Best Ensemble: “The King’s Speech”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Best Stunt Ensemble: “Inception”
NOTE: I think Bening could easily win and, in fact, I think we could start seeing the tide shift her way in the lead actress race very soon. Just a hunch.
4 1-28-2011 at 11:02 am
JJ1 said...
Best Ensemble: The Fighter
Best Actor: Colin Firth = The King’s Speech
Best Actress: Natalie Portman = Black Swan
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale = The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo = The Fighter
Best Stunt Ensemble: Inception
I don’t see any weird action coming here. But by the Oscars, I don’t think several of these will match up (maybe Pic, S. Actress).
5 1-28-2011 at 11:04 am
Ella said...
I’ve read that the SAG membership, taken as a whole, tends to skew young. TSN might be their choice for ensemble, but I think The Fighter will take it. Other predictions: Portman, Firth, Leo, Bale.
6 1-28-2011 at 11:06 am
JJ1 said...
Funny, I’m thinking something similar, Kris; with regards to Bening.
The overdue factor, Kids is obviously well loved by the Academy, Black Swan definitely disappointed with it’s lack of nominations (showing a lessening of support across AMPAS), and Portman isn’t really hitting it out of the ball park with her tidy, pleasant speeches (not that that should matter). That’s just my opinion from someone looking in from the outside. The race is definitely close.
7 1-28-2011 at 11:18 am
Gabriel D. said...
Will win
Best Ensemble: “The King’s Speech”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Anette Benning, “The Kids Are All Right”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Best Stunt Ensemble: “Inception”
Should win
Best Ensemble: “The King’s Speech”
Best Actor: James Franco, “127 Hours”
Best Actress: Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams , “The Fighter”
Annette Benning has a lot of friends, Warren Beatty has a lot of friends…I feel it’s time for Annette to get some recognition from her peers altough she had some for American Beauty).
Meanwhile, I would agreably shocked if Nicole Kidman take the ”actor” home.
8 1-28-2011 at 11:23 am
Ibbs said...
I’m predicting all the usual in the acting categories, but The Fighter for Ensemble. Just given the flashiness of all the supporting players, I feel like it might be hard to not tick off that box. Although I wonder if the SAG brouhaha Steve Pond reported on about the switch to online voting that a lot of older SAG members didn’t get the memo about (despite repeated letters informing them of it and instructing them of how to go about voting online) would lend itself to the hipper choice of The Social Network. It would be quite a coup for Scott Rudin for the film to nab the DGA, SAG, and have Mark Zuckerberg make an appearance on the Eisenberg-hosted SNL episode all in the same weekend.
9 1-28-2011 at 11:29 am
Derek 8-Track said...
Any chance you know the percentage of Brits that make up the SAG?
So far all the SAG members ive talked to have voted Fighter, but i honestly don’t know many SAG members.
10 1-28-2011 at 11:33 am
Yogs said...
Best Ensemble: “The Social Network”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
Best Stunt Ensemble: “Inception”
11 1-28-2011 at 11:34 am
Joey said...
I think if The Social Network wins here and at DGA, it will take the Oscar. I also think if Natalie wins over Annette, then the Oscar is definitely hers.
12 1-28-2011 at 11:36 am
americanrequiem said...
seeing as aronofsky directs some of the best performances ever to hit screen yet none can win oscars i say
actress:benning
actor:firth
sup actor:bale
sup actress:bomhan carter
stunt:inception duh
odd, not one of those people im supporting..sigh
13 1-28-2011 at 11:41 am
Erik said...
Guy – Has a film ever won the PGA-DGA-SAG ensemble trio and not won best picture?
14 1-28-2011 at 11:44 am
Jason Travis said...
ENSEMBLE: “The King’s Speech”
LEAD ACTOR: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
LEAD ACTRESS: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
STUNT ENSEMBLE: “Inception”
15 1-28-2011 at 11:47 am
Paul Outlaw said...
WILL WIN (my predix):
Cast: The Fighter
Male Actor In A Leading Role: Colin Firth
Female Actor In A Leading Role: Natalie Portman
Male Actor In A Supporting Role: Christian Bale
Female Actor In A Supporting Role: Melissa Leo
Stunt Ensemble: Inception
SHOULD WIN (my actual ballot):
Cast: The Kids Are All Right
Male Actor In A Leading Role: Colin Firth
Female Actor In A Leading Role: Nicole Kidman
Male Actor In A Supporting Role: Christian Bale
Female Actor In A Supporting Role: Helena Bonham Carter
Stunt Ensemble: Inception
16 1-28-2011 at 11:49 am
Collin said...
I think this will be the most mismatched SAG/Oscars in awhile in that Fighter will probably take Ensemble but not Best Picture, as the two really have no correlation. And I think Leo may take supporting actress but Steinfeld will get the Oscar.
All that said, every actor I know has voted for The King’s Speech across the board…
17 1-28-2011 at 11:51 am
Paul Outlaw said...
Not this actor, lol. See above.
18 1-28-2011 at 11:51 am
bluemoon02 said...
Best Ensemble: “The Fighter”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
Best Stunt Ensemble: “Inception”
I have a gut feeling about this. I really do. Craving for some hot,piping APPLE PIE!
19 1-28-2011 at 11:54 am
Daniel Crooke said...
Best Ensemble: The Fighter
Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
Best Actress: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
Best Stunt Ensemble: Inception
20 1-28-2011 at 11:56 am
Dominik said...
My predictions:
Best Ensemble: “The King´s Speech”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King´s Speech”
Best Actress: Annette Bening, “The Kids are all right”
Supp. Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Supp. Actress: Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
21 1-28-2011 at 11:58 am
Matthew Starr said...
Best Ensemble: King’s Speech
22 1-28-2011 at 12:02 pm
Guy Lodge said...
Erik: Yes. “Apollo 13″ in 1995.
23 1-28-2011 at 12:10 pm
Craig said...
Erik: Why should it matter? No film will do that this year.
And those saying that Black Swan isn’t well liked by the Academy seem to be forgetting that it still received picture and director nominations. Seems well liked to me. Portman will win.
24 1-28-2011 at 12:17 pm
Cordy said...
Will win
Best Ensemble: “The Fighter”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Best Stunt Ensemble: “Inception”
Should win
Best Ensemble: “The Fighter”
Best Actor: Jesse Eisenberg, “The Social Network”
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, “The Fighter”
I would be very disappointed if The Fighter loses this, as I feel strongly it has the best acting across the board this year. For some reason I can’t understand The Social Network winning this, even though I know they can treat this as a best pic category. If The King’s Speech wins I will be disappointed, as it has 1 great performance, 1 very good performance, 1 serviceable performance, and a bunch of window dressing as far as I’m concerned (and I liked the movie).
25 1-28-2011 at 12:17 pm
Erik said...
I think there’s an outside chance it could happen, though I think Fincher is the heavy favorite for DGA.
Just something I was curious about.
26 1-28-2011 at 12:19 pm
Chris said...
Let me just say it now, I will be one pissed off homo if Annette Bening wins. Somebody really needs to sit me down and talk to me like I am five and explain to me, what the hell was so “oscar worthy” about her performance in “The Kids Are All Right”?
27 1-28-2011 at 12:24 pm
JFK said...
Guy, I’m going with all of your Will Win’s except I think The Fighter will take ensemble.
28 1-28-2011 at 12:25 pm
red_wine said...
Should win
Best Ensemble: “The Kids Are All Right”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Best Supporting Actress: none of them
29 1-28-2011 at 12:33 pm
darklayers said...
Collin and Paul Outlaw or anyone else whose met SAG members? May I ask, some contend that a substantial proportion of voters think of SAG ensemble (one Academy member talking to Dave Karger in 1998; Scott Feinberg on “Oscar Poker”) as their “Best Picture.” How do they view the “Best Ensemble Award,” from the standpoint of the chemistry of the cast and their work as a group or in terms of the movie overall?
30 1-28-2011 at 12:40 pm
DylanS said...
Best Ensemble: “The Social Network”
Best Actor: Colin Firth “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Natalie Portman “Black Swan”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Amy Adams “The Fighter”
31 1-28-2011 at 12:52 pm
Ky said...
I`m with you Chris, I don`t get it either. She`s the weakest one in her category. She was fabulous in Mother and Child but her TKAAR performance is overrated.
32 1-28-2011 at 12:55 pm
Kel D said...
The Fighter wins ensemble to give it entry into serious contention come Oscar time.
33 1-28-2011 at 1:16 pm
SC said...
I thought Moore was much better than Bening in TKAAR (and had the bigger/juicier part), and she’s, if anything, even more “overdue” than Bening is. I don’t get how all the attention came to be on Bening.
Will and should win:
Ensemble: The King’s Speech
Actor: Colin Firth
Actress: Natalie Portman
Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
34 1-28-2011 at 1:18 pm
Sam C. said...
As much as everyone is predicting a Steinfeld win, I just can’t see the voters voting against Working Actress Extraordinaire Melissa Leo
35 1-28-2011 at 1:21 pm
Mike M. said...
Will win
Best Ensemble: “The Social Network”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Annette Bening, “The Kids Are All Right”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, “The Fighter”
Best Stunt Ensemble: “Inception”
Should win
Best Ensemble: “The Fighter”
Best Actor: No preference without Ryan Gosling.
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Best Supporting Actor: John Hawkes, “Winter’s Bone”
Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
36 1-28-2011 at 1:32 pm
Paul Outlaw said...
darklayers, I can only speak for myself, but I never view that award as either “Best Picture” or “Best Ensemble.” I try to vote for what I consider “Outstanding Performance By A Cast In A Motion Picture,” the actual title of the award. In other words, I’m first and foremost interested in the individual performances of the nominated actors (although I’m usually frustrated by the rules determining whose names show up in the nomination). If they happen to function well as an ensemble, that’s a bonus.
The entire nominated casts of The King’s Speech, The Social Network and Black Swan didn’t blow me away. It was kind of a toss-up between The Kids Are All Right and The Fighter, because I found something to admire in every single performance (including not nominated ones like Yaya DaCosta), but since I’d already given one vote to my favorite performance in The Fighter, I went with TKAAR.
37 1-28-2011 at 1:38 pm
Fitz said...
Best Ensemble: “Black Swan”
Best Actor: Colin Firth “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Annette Bening “The Kids Are All Right”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo “The Fighter”
Stunt Ensemble: “Inception”
38 1-28-2011 at 1:52 pm
Speaking English said...
I’m actually incredibly surprised about people bad-talking Bening. I don’t even care for the movie very much, but her performance in “The Kids Are All Right” is a beautiful, warm, wry portrayal both full of pathos and superbly timed humor. Just watch the scene towards the end when Julianne Moore’s character is talking to the family about the hardships of marriage. Bening, just sitting and watching, ends up stealing the entire scene. Her face is a great conveyor of feeling.
39 1-28-2011 at 2:47 pm
/3rtfu11 said...
“there’s no reason whatsoever to suspect that Colin Firth and Natalie Portman won’t continue their joint march to the Oscar podium on Sunday. (If Annette Bening were to pull off a shocker, she’d be the first two-time Best Actress winner in the 17-year history of the awards, which somehow makes it seem even less likely.)”
Did you ignore the Hilary Swank factor when you came to this conclusion?
Actor – Firth
Actress – Bening for the sympathetic upset.
Supporting Actress – Leo
Supporting Actor – Bale
Ensemble – I don’t care
40 1-28-2011 at 4:26 pm
Anita said...
Oh, Guy. If only your Should Wins prevailed. If only.
How does The Social Network have eight pundits predicting it for the win? I thought it was between The Fighter and The King’s Speech? God, I hope they’re right.
41 1-28-2011 at 4:43 pm
Andrej said...
Ensemble: The Fighter
Actor: Colin Firth.
Actress: Natalie Portman.
Sup. Actor: Christian Bale.
Sup. Actress: Melissa Leo.
My second, hopeful options go to Jesse Eisenberg and Hailee Steinfeld.
42 1-28-2011 at 4:48 pm
Kholby said...
The Nicole Kidman love makes me smile.
She certainly should be winning this award. She is magnificent.
43 1-28-2011 at 7:41 pm
Chris138 said...
I pretty much agree with what Guy said, except I think ensemble will be between The Fighter and The Social Network. I’m leaning towards the former.
44 1-28-2011 at 9:21 pm
Robert said...
ENSEMBLE: The Fighter
ACTOR: Colin Firth
ACTRESS: Natalie Portman (My gut tells me, though Bening will gain traction after this and Bening will win the Oscar).
SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christian Bale
SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Melissa Leo
45 1-28-2011 at 10:29 pm
Mike said...
Nicole Kidman has never won an actor before (lost to Berry in 2001 and Zellweger (!) in 2002). I was on the comittee and voted for her astonishing performance. I hope she wins.
46 1-28-2011 at 10:55 pm
Andrew said...
Guy do you think a win for Benning is worthy or is it just a gift for prior (better) work ? she was my least favorite part about that movie i loved Moore, more ahah ??? do you think Portman was the best ?
47 1-28-2011 at 10:57 pm
Andrew said...
Will win ( my guess )
Social network
Colin
Natalie
Christian
Melissa
Should Win ( in my eyes )
Social Network
Jesse
Natalie
Christian
Amy
48 1-28-2011 at 11:22 pm
Danimal said...
I agree with Guy’s predictions.
I’m surprised no one has mentioned this (unless I missed it), but Bening will NOT win Best Actress, as she as already won an Actor for “American Beauty.” I think there’s a great deal to be said for the idea of “sharing the wealth,” and since Portman has not won an Actor prior, I think that makes her a shoo-in. If anyone is pulling an upset, it’s Kidman.
I really, REALLY want to predict The Fighter for Ensemble, but again, if Bale and Leo win, I feel an Ensemble win would almost be too much praise for one film. SAG will want to reward the most critically praised movie of the year, which leaves The Social Network winning Ensemble by default.
49 1-29-2011 at 4:27 am
Simon Warrasch said...
Will win:
Lead Actor:
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech (Lock)
RU: /
Lead Actress:
Natalie Portman – Black Swan (Lock)
RU: /
Supporting Actor:
Christian Bale – The Fighter (Lock)
RU: /
Supporting Actress:
Mellisa Leo – The Fighter : (
RU: Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
Ensemble: The Fighter
RU: The Social Network vs. The King’s Speech
Should win:
Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
Natalie Portman – Black Swan
Christian Bale – The Fighter
TIE:
Haille Steinfeld – True Grit
Amy Adams – The Fighter
The Fighter
50 1-29-2011 at 4:31 am
Graysmith said...
Firth, Portman, Bale, Leo, The King’s Speech.
Giving it to The Fighter seems a bit like overkill when Bale and Leo are likely to win individual awards, and I’m rooting against The Social Network for the sole reason that Rooney Mara wasn’t nominated as part of the ensemble. A small role, but a very important one that shouldn’t have been left off.
The King’s Speech has the largest ensemble nominated, and outside of the main cast there’s also royalty like Gambon, Jacobi, Spall and Pearce nominated. Seems like an ideal opportunity to give a whole lot of amazing actors an award.
51 1-29-2011 at 5:24 am
Guy Lodge said...
/3rtfu11: I don’t get what you mean by “the Hilary Swank factor.” This is SAG, not the Oscars — Swank and Bening have one each.
Andrew: As I clearly state in my “should win” picks, I think Nicole Kidman is the best in the category — though Swank (who I usually like) aside, I think every nominee is terrific. I think this is the best performance of Bening’s career, so I’d be content with her winning.
Danimal: If you read my piece again, you’ll see I clearly mention Bening’s previous win.
52 1-29-2011 at 6:25 am
JJ1 said...
On merit alone, I think Portman deserves the win(s). She was incredible in a wow role.
But Bening gave a very good performance, as well. Nuanced, funny, witty, intuitive. I bought “Nic” at every step of the way. It wouldn’t be a travesty if she won (overdue notion or not).
And p.s. – just watched ‘Conviction’. Not wild about the movie. But Swank was very good; much better than anticipated. I could almost see why SAG populist support would come behind it (for the nom).
53 1-29-2011 at 10:31 am
Danimal said...
Yep, guilty of commenting without carefully reading the article. You got me, Guy. As an avid reader of the site, I should know better :)
54 1-29-2011 at 11:47 am
Speaking English said...
***Giving it to The Fighter seems a bit like overkill when Bale and Leo are likely to win individual awards***
SAG doesn’t work that way, and you’re obviously forgetting about “Chicago” which won two acting awards and the best ensemble in 2002.
55 1-30-2011 at 2:37 pm
matsunaga said...
Should win
Best Ensemble: “The King’s Speech”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Nicole Kidman, “Rabbit Hole”
Best Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush, “The King’s Speech”
Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter, “The King’s Speech”
I’ll stick with these upsets…