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(UPDATE: Dave Karger reached out and noted that his picks for the screenplay fields were actually in the newsstand issue of Entertainment weekly, and that he got 10/10. He is noted below, fine, but come on — is it so hard to put it online?)
I did some poking around in the usual corners to see how the pundits fared in predicting this year’s nominees. Not everyone predicted everything. In fact, I think the only ones to predict all 24 categories, from what I can tell, were Nathaniel Rogers, Anne Thompson and myself. And I’m happy to report I was tops in that range (nailing 92 of 120 nominees). Anne got 91 correct and Nathaniel got 90.
I’m sure someone out there did better than me, so don’t mistake that for gloating. I’m just happy I was right on “Salt” in Best Sound Mixing and “The Way Back” in Best Makeup. The little things.
Anyway, speaking of Nathaniel, he did VERY well in the general eight categories that everyone predicts, correctly guessing 40 of 45 nominees. As did Dave Karger (see note above). But we all have to bow to Steve Pond in this arena, who missed just three nominees for an impressive 42/45 score. Bravo.
I wasn’t even good enough for third place there, as Anne, Sasha Stone, Brad Brevet and our own Guy Lodge each correctly guessed 39 of the 45. Scott Feinberg is keeping me and my 38 company in fourth place, however.
Unfortunately most pundits stop with the top eight categories. But more and more, people are branching out and taking stabs throughout the tech categories. As best I can tell, that was my and Tech Support columnist Gerard Kennedy’s time to shine. We both went 82/105. Brevet, Rogers and Lodge came in second there with 81 correct picks. Feinberg, meanwhile, came in third with 78.
Hopefully my math isn’t wrong on any of these. I’m sure I’ll be corrected swiftly if that’s the case. Lots of counting. As long as the numbers hold up, I’ll happily take my two gold medals, but I’m more pumped by a stellar slate of nominees with which, mostly, I’m having a difficult time arguing.
Top 8 fields:
Gold: Steve Pond
Silver: Dave Karger, Nathaniel Rogers
Bronze: Brad Brevet, Guy Lodge, Sasha Stone, Anne Thompson
24 feature fields:
Gold: Gerard Kennedy, Kristopher Tapley
Silver: Brad Brevet, Guy Lodge, Nathaniel Rogers
Bronze: Scott Feinberg
All 24 fields:
Gold: Kristopher Tapley
Silver: Anne Thompson
Bronze: Nathaniel Rogers
How did you do on your picks?
38 responses so far
1 1-25-2011 at 2:10 pm
AdamL said...
Yes I am sad and pedantic, but if Steve, Nathaniel, Anne, Sasha, Brad and Guy all out-guessed you, how on earth are you in fourth place? I think you’ll find you’re 7th!
2 1-25-2011 at 2:15 pm
Danny King said...
I did decent on my predictions, getting ten wrong in the top eight categories. The only other category I predicted this year was cinematography, and I hope to expand my predictions next year to the point where I will also predict all 24 categories for the next Oscars.
And I had a quick question about the nominations announcement this morning: Who is in the audience? I saw Dave Karger speaking on the livestream, and he also mentioned that there were publicity people. Is it generally just representatives of the talent?
3 1-25-2011 at 2:18 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Adam: Steve was first, Nathaniel was second, the rest tied for third. Easy, peasy.
Danny: All kinds of peeps. Steve was there. Tom O’Neil usually goes. Lots of publicists.
4 1-25-2011 at 2:29 pm
brian said...
I like the idea of two gold metals, like you have some kick ass golf clubs or something.
5 1-25-2011 at 2:30 pm
Graysmith said...
I got 40 of 45 in the top categories and 86 out of 105, so clearly this means I should be running one of these sites!
6 1-25-2011 at 2:38 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Cruel, brian. Cruel! I’ve been up since 4:30! (But thanks for the catch.)
7 1-25-2011 at 2:47 pm
americanrequeim said...
im ready for phase 2. im curious which way sup actress will go (im in the hailee camp but dont think shell win) and it does seem t be a race between the kings speech and the social network. letss gooooo
8 1-25-2011 at 2:51 pm
Loyal said...
I managed 81/105 (a more respectable 87/105 with alts).
I screwed the pooch by going too high on Black Swan and I missed the boat on the 2 key Inception/Waiting for Superman snubs.
9 1-25-2011 at 3:02 pm
Blake said...
83/105.
Missed 1 in every category except sound mixing and foreign language film, where I missed two each, and went 5/5 on adapted screenplay.
38/45 in main 8 categories.
10 1-25-2011 at 3:08 pm
AdamL said...
Kris, I do not dispute that Steve was 1st, Nat 2nd and the rest tied 3rd. But if 4 people tie for 3rd the next place is not 4th – it’s 7th!
In a race if two people tie for first the next person is the third to finish. They are therefore 3rd and would get a bronze medal (or metal) if it were the Olympics. They are not 2nd.
Some guy on metacritic posted 20 films in his “top 10″ this year by having ties all over the place. It annoys me. I know it shouldn’t.
11 1-25-2011 at 3:08 pm
CMrok93 said...
I’m not all that disappointed with the Oscars this year, except no love for Christopher Nolan, or The Town for that matter. However, it doesn’t matter all that much really since The Social Network is practically going to win everything it’s nominated for. Which kind of blows, but hey it really was an amazing piece of work. Can’t wait for the show!
12 1-25-2011 at 3:18 pm
Patriotsfan said...
I thought I did good getting 41/45, but damn, 44/45, bravo to Steve Pond. I correctly guessed six whole categories (Picture, Director, Supporting Actress, Adapted Screenplay, Cinematography, and File Editing), so I felt pretty good about that.
Overall, I was 85/105 (check it out here: http://auteurfan.blogspot.com/2011/01/predicting-nominees-everything-in-its.html). Has anyone you know done better than that Kris ? Or anyone else reading Incontention?
13 1-25-2011 at 3:20 pm
Patriotsfan said...
Film Editing*
14 1-25-2011 at 3:51 pm
N8 said...
85 out of 105
15 1-25-2011 at 3:55 pm
Ed D. said...
92 out of 105! New high for me, lol
16 1-25-2011 at 4:07 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Adam: If we were running a marathon, I’d get you. But we’re not. It’s a data set. Tied for third, ted for fourth.
17 1-25-2011 at 4:12 pm
J.R. said...
84/105. I’m just glad I went 10/10 on Best Picture (no “Blind Sides”).
There were some misses that made more more excited than anything, though. For instance:
I AM LOVE: OSCAR NOMINEE.
Love the sound of that. :)
18 1-25-2011 at 4:13 pm
Michael W. said...
83 out of 105. I’m very happy with that. The goal is always to reach the 80 :D
And then 37 out of the 45 from the big 8.
I had the Duvall snub right, but I took the chance on Mark Wahlberg and not Bardem. I also had Steinfeld in lead and Manville in supporting. If I had just changed that I would have had one more right. Oh well.
I went 100% on 3 categories. Adapted screenplay, animated film and cinematography.
19 1-25-2011 at 4:26 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
FYI, updated with Anne’s full tally. She got 91. *whew*
20 1-25-2011 at 4:55 pm
Steve Pond said...
While I appreciate the kudos, honestly compels me to point out that I missed the Coens too, and the ‘Fighter’ writing nomination. (I had Nolan and ‘Black Swan.’) So I was 42/45, not 44/45.
Still good enough to win, but not quite so beastly.
21 1-25-2011 at 4:59 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Really? I thought you had the Coens and Fighter in there. Brain dead. Thanks. Chump!
22 1-25-2011 at 5:07 pm
Andrew F said...
I managed to get a personal high for me this year, with 86/105. :D
Sound Editing, Documentary and Visual Effects messed me up, but I’m happy to say I correctly predicted “King’s Speech” getting a Sound Mixing nod. As for the big 8, I got 41/45, incorrectly predicting Nolan, Gosling, Garfield and “Black Swan”.
But kudos to Pond! He managed to predict the (more than welcome!) Nolan snub.
23 1-25-2011 at 5:14 pm
Andrew F said...
Oh, so Pond missed the Nolan snub, too? Still, 42! Super-kudos to you.
Did *anyone* predict it, then?
24 1-25-2011 at 5:31 pm
Carlo said...
Got 70/91. Opted out of Best Song though. Not that bad:)
25 1-25-2011 at 5:44 pm
Steve Pond said...
Kris, I figured maybe you gave me two extra points for 1) predicting that the song category would have fewer than five nominees, and 2) talking you into switching your prediction to ‘Dogtooth.’
26 1-25-2011 at 6:16 pm
forts said...
I managed 89/120 myself and 111/120 if we include my alternates… Only complete biffed on Kidman, Salt, Unstoppable, I Am Love’s costumes and then some of the documentaries and shorts… I liked how the Academy kept it somewhat fresh with some surprises (No Nolan makes me extremely happy) but still dumbfounded at certain stupid choices like 4 noms for Best Song or no Coyote Falls or Tangled getting shafted and of course no VFX for Tron (damn Disney and their cheating by using computers)
27 1-25-2011 at 7:02 pm
Evan said...
85/105 and 93/120. A friend got 84/105 and 94/120, beating me by one. He picked 5/5 on the doc short category.
My worst categories were, aside from the shorts, Sound Editing, Sound Mixing, and Visual Effects, where I got 3/5.
28 1-25-2011 at 7:15 pm
Chris said...
I wonder who correctly predicted “I Am Love” for Costume Design.
29 1-25-2011 at 7:46 pm
Pablo (BOG) said...
Of the 120 nominees in the 24 categories, i got 94. So i guess I beat Anne, Kris and Nathaniel.
:D
30 1-26-2011 at 6:26 am
Colin Walsh said...
I got 40 in the top 8. But if you count alternates (which i don’t) I only missed one. Happy that I went with a strong Winter’s Bone showing.
http://newfoundfilm.tumblr.com/post/2915686609/83rd-academy-awards-nominee-predictions
31 1-26-2011 at 7:03 am
karol said...
hi there,
i’m really interested in hearing your opinion of the snub’s reasons.
Nolan in Director.
Inception in Editing.
Black Swan in Original Screenplay & both Sound categories.
Waiting for Superman in Documentary & Song.
Alice in Wonderland in Makeup.
Burlesque in Song.
Tron Legacy in Visual Fx.
for example, some are saying that while watching Inception, they got lost, and didn’t know what was happening (sic!). could it be the reason of the snub in editing?
32 1-26-2011 at 7:34 am
bluemoon02 said...
Geez, why are all the pundits jumping on TKS bandwagaon just becuz they got the most nominations?
At least Guy Lodge is steadfast on TSN.
33 1-26-2011 at 7:45 am
Ben M. said...
I went 38 out of 45 (and only got that due to my last second change from Blue Valentine to Inception in original screenplay), getting director right but missing one in all the others.
So not bad I guess, but I doubt I will ever match the 39/40 I had in 2006 when I got lucky with my risky predictions of Letters from Iwo Jima instead of Dreamgirls in picture, Eastwood and Greengrass in director, and DiCaprio for Blood Diamond rather than Departed.
34 1-26-2011 at 8:42 am
Red said...
I was 80/105, with perfect marks in Best Actress, Original Score, Original Song, and Animated.
The Docs killed me, with Inside Job being my only prediction that was right.
http://www.anomalousmaterial.com/movies/2011/01/forecasting-oscars-decisions-1202011/
35 1-26-2011 at 9:46 am
Roger said...
I was 38/45… New High as well… Perfect in the Ladies categories… 43 out of 45 with alt but that doesn’t matter… Direction killed me otherwise it would have been closer…
36 1-26-2011 at 10:24 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
bluemoon: I was only on TSN for like a week, so you can basically assume I haven’t done a total about face. I’ve always felt like TKS was in a better position and that critics awards wouldn’t matter that much, and I still do. You could say even more so, now.
37 1-26-2011 at 10:34 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
FYI, Karger emailed me to remind that his screenplay picks were int he issue. I’ve made a note of this at the top.