January winner predictions

Posted by · 8:27 am · January 11th, 2011

After taking a stab at winner predictions early last month, it seemed now would be a good time to re-assess.  Only three adjustments, though — for Best Picture, Best Film Editing and Best Original Score.  I’ll try my hand at another set post-nominations.

Best Picture: “The Social Network”
Best Director: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”
Best Original Screenplay:
“The King’s Speech”

Best Art Direction: “Alice in Wonderland”
Best Cinematography: “True Grit”
Best Costume Design: “Alice in Wonderland”
Best Film Editing: “The Social Network”
Best Makeup: “Alice in Wonderland”
Best Music (Original Score): “Inception”
Best Music (Original Song): “Waiting for Superman”
Best Sound Editing: “Inception”
Best Sound Mixing: “Inception”
Best Visual Effects: “Inception”
Best Documentary Feature: “Inside Job”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Toy Story 3”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Life, Above All”

“Inception” – 4 (still seems like too many)
“The Social Network” – 4
“Alice in Wonderland” – 3 (weird)
“The King’s Speech” – 2
“True Grit” – 2
“Black Swan” – 1
“The Fighter” – 1
“Inside Job” – 1
“Toy Story 3” – 1
“Live, Above All” – 1

I kind of feel like there ought to be more for “Black Swan,” but I’ll stick with this for now.  You?

[Photo: Paramount Pictures]

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64 responses so far

  • 1 1-11-2011 at 5:25 pm

    Eddie said...

    4 wins for “Inception” too many… I still think it is the favorite for editing, which is by far the flashier of the probable best pic noms.

    Also, is Bale such a lock? Isn’t his bad boy antics (fighting with his mother, trashing a DP) too much for the Academy (like Russel Crowe was)? I wouldn’t be shocked if he wasn’t even nominated…

  • 2 1-11-2011 at 7:22 pm

    DRM said...

    Inception won’t win more than two.

  • 3 1-11-2011 at 8:39 pm

    Q-Mann said...

    I think Inception is a lock for effects as well. It may not be as flashy as Tron, but there are so many subtle effects (I read there were around 500 visual effects shots). It really is a marvel to watch.

    Anyway, here are my picks:

    Picture – The Social Network
    Director – Fincher, The Social Network
    Actor – Firth, The King’s Speech
    Actress – Portman, Black Swan (keeping an eye on Bening at the SAGs, though)
    Supporting Actor – Bale, The Fighter
    Supporting Actress – Leo, The Fighter
    Adapted Screenplay – The Social Network
    Original Screenplay – The King’s Speech

  • 4 1-11-2011 at 8:48 pm

    Q-Mann said...

    Oh, and Kris. I’m sure I missed an announcement somewhere, and I apologize in advance…but when do you think we can expect your Top 10 shots of 2010?

  • 5 1-11-2011 at 9:37 pm

    jake said...

    Hailee is not THAT great in True Grit, does everyone really think so. And I wish that Lionsgate would go wide with rabbit hole already because Nicole gives the performance of the year. Black Swan was just such an outrageous movie.

  • 6 1-11-2011 at 11:22 pm

    Hans said...

    Editing will go to Social Network. As of late, the Academy has more or less regarded that category as a second “Best Picture” category.

  • 7 1-12-2011 at 2:29 am

    Ryan Hoffman said...

    I think the top categories are going to be a combo of spreading the wealth and rewarding TSN.
    Anyone else seeing this?
    Best Picture: The Social Network
    Best Director: David Fincher – The Social Network
    Best Actor: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman – Black Swan
    Best Supp. Actor: Christian Bale – The Fighter
    Best Supp. Actress: Hailee Steinfeld – True Grit
    Best Original Screenplay – Christopher Nolan – Inception
    Best Adapted Screenplay – Aaron Sorkin – The Social Network
    Best Animated Feature – Toy Story 3
    Best Documentary Feature – Inside Job

    Best Editing – The Social Network
    Best Cinematography – True Grit
    Best Art Direction – The King’s Speech
    Best Costume Design – Alice in Wonderland
    Best Makeup – The Wolfman
    Best Visual Effects – Inception
    Best Sound Editing – Inception
    Best Sound Mixing – Inception
    Best Music (Original Score) – Inception
    Best Music (Original Song) – Shine – Waiting for Superman

    Inception 5
    The Social Network 4
    The King’s Speech 3
    True Grit 2
    Alice in Wonderland 1
    Black Swan 1
    The Fighter 1
    Inside Job 1
    Toy Story 3 1
    Waiting For Superman 1
    The Wolfman 1

  • 8 1-12-2011 at 7:44 am

    Nelson said...

    Best Picture – The King’s Speech
    Best Director – The Social Network
    Best Actor – Colin Firth
    Best Actress – Natalie Portman
    Best Supp. Actor – Christian Bale
    Best Supp. Actress – Amy Adams
    Best Original Screenplay – The King’s Speech
    Best Adapted Screenplay – The Social Network
    Best Animated Feature – Toy Story 3
    Best Editing – The Social Network
    Best Cinematography – True Grit
    Best Art Direction – True Grit
    Best Costume Design – Alice In Wonderland
    Best Makeup – Alice in Wonderland
    Best Visual Effects – Tron Legacy
    Best Sound Editing – Inception
    Best Sound Mixing – Inception
    Best Original Score – Inception
    Best Original Song – Waiting For Superman
    Best Documentary – Waiting For Superman

  • 9 1-12-2011 at 8:29 am

    Joel said...

    Jon (Post #43): You are equating Christian Bale to Eddie Murphy? PLEASE tell me it’s just that Bale is a favorite in the Supporting Actor category and could suffer an “upset” (like Murphy was- even though I thought his performance was cardboard), NOT because they are equivalent actors!

  • 10 1-12-2011 at 8:36 am

    KB said...

    Picture – The Social Network
    Director – David Fincher
    Actor – Colin Firth
    Actress – Natalie Portman
    Supporting Actor – Christian Bale
    Supporting Actress – Amy Adams
    Adapted Screenplay – The Social Network
    Original Screenplay – The Kids Are All Right
    Animated Feature Film – Toy Story 3
    Art Direction – Inception
    Cinematography – True Grit
    Costume Design – Alice in Wonderland
    Film Editing – The Social Network
    Original Score – The King’s Speech
    Original Song – Tangled
    Sound Mixing – Black Swan
    Sound Editing – Inception
    Makeup – Alice in Wonderland
    Visual Effects – Inception

  • 11 1-12-2011 at 8:55 am

    Holden said...

    There might be an excess of credit going to Inception, but it’s not like it’s crazy or unwarranted. I think that this will be more like 1977, where Annie Hall won four major awards, but Star Wars dominated the technical categories.

    Picture – The Social Network
    Director – David Fincher
    Actor – Colin Firth (though I’ve got a feeling about Jesse Eissenberg.)
    Actress – Natalie Portman
    Sup. Actor – Christian Bale
    Sup. Actress – Hailee Steinfield
    Adapted Screenplay – The Social Network
    Original Screenplay – Inception
    Animated Feature Film – Toy Story 3
    Foreign Language Film – Biutiful
    Documentary Feature Film – Exit Through the Gift Show
    Art Direction – Inception
    Cinematography – Inception
    Costume Design – Alice in Wonderland
    Film Editing – Inception
    Make Up – The Wolfman
    Original Score – The Social Network
    Original Song – “I See the Light” Tangled
    Sound Editing – Inception
    Sound Mixing – Inception
    Visual Effects – Inception

  • 12 1-12-2011 at 6:31 pm

    Brett said...

    I would really like an Amy Adams win over Steinfeld. Sometimes actors need to prove they can do it again.

    Awards coverage & analysis @ filmretrospect.blogspot.com – now updated daily!

  • 13 2-19-2011 at 3:10 pm

    Gary of We Ho said...

    Fearless forecast: It will be an interesting OSCAR night if it goes this way:

    Picture: King’s Speech
    Actor: Firth
    Actress: Bening
    S. Actor: Bale
    S. Actress: Adams