Taking questions for Oscar Talk

Posted by · 11:42 am · December 29th, 2010

After taking the holiday week off (and a good thing, too, as I was knocked on my rear by some wicked virus), Anne and I will be back on the case Friday for Oscar Talk.  Here’s the usual solicitation.  PLEASE KEEP IT TO ONE QUESTION, and as always, keep it fresh.  Anything overly chewed on will likely be avoided in favor of something new to address.

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40 responses so far

  • 1 12-29-2010 at 11:49 am

    Maxim said...

    Do you think that Natalie Portman is in a better position to win an Oscar this year than Mickey Rourke or Ellen Bernstyn were when they got nominted for Aronofsky’s films? If so, how much of this is due to Black Swan’s likely presence in other top categories, or, put another way, would she have been as strong without it?

  • 2 12-29-2010 at 11:50 am

    Yih said...

    What gives an actor/actress in a foreign film the momentum needed to get a nod? The last best actor nod went to Bardem in 2000 and best actress was Cruz in 2006. What gave them that momentum or buzz? I’m asking for the sake of Edgar Ramirez, Bardem (again), Hye-ja Kim, Tilda Swinton, and Giovanna Mezzogiorno. If their performances were in domestic films, they would be locks…but now I feel lucky just to get two of these.

  • 3 12-29-2010 at 12:04 pm

    Erik said...

    Why is Michael Giacchino’s score for Let Me In not included in your predictions? Is it a case of you not liking it or thinking it’s not the Academy’s cup of tea?

  • 4 12-29-2010 at 12:07 pm

    forts said...

    What films have the best chance to pull a Blind Side this year and spoil the Best Picture race? For Colored Girls? Secretariat?

  • 5 12-29-2010 at 12:25 pm

    Chris LaBrocco said...

    If Melissa Leo and Amy Adams are both nominated for the Fighter in Supporting Actress, wouldn’t it be difficult for one of them to pull off a win? Think shut outs for Almost Famous, Gosford Park and Doubt in recent years.

  • 6 12-29-2010 at 12:32 pm

    JJ1 said...

    Of any acting category, who do you think has the biggest shot at a Tommy Lee Jones/Maggie Gyllenhaal nom? In other words, getting nommed without many or any precursors, whatsoever.

    i.e., an Ed Harris, a Di Caprio, a Vanessa Redgrave, etc..

  • 7 12-29-2010 at 12:34 pm

    Marc R. said...

    Is this 3-D craze ever going to cease?

  • 8 12-29-2010 at 12:34 pm

    Andrej said...

    A tiny and simple question to end the year ☺

    What’s your favourite movie quote, monologue or dialogue from 2010 and why?

  • 9 12-29-2010 at 12:38 pm

    Ziyad Abul Hawa said...

    Do you think that Julianne Moore is out? Is there maybe a remote possibility after last year’s snub for A Single Man?

  • 10 12-29-2010 at 12:38 pm

    Drew said...

    I don’t think there really is a Blindside contender this year. Blindside at least had some kind of major precursor, and niether Secretariat or Colored Girls have either of those.

  • 11 12-29-2010 at 12:40 pm

    Loyal said...

    What role, if any, will True Grit’s box office success play in the Best Picture race. True Grit’s domestic gross be over 70m by Friday’s Oscar Talk and it will pass No Country’s overall gross and near 100m by the end of the weekend.

  • 12 12-29-2010 at 12:52 pm

    Edie said...

    Is Natalie Portman a lock for Best Actress?

  • 13 12-29-2010 at 12:54 pm

    Simon said...

    Has Anne finally seen Exit Through the Giftshop?

  • 14 12-29-2010 at 12:55 pm

    Maxim said...

    “Is Natalie Portman a lock for Best Actress?”

    This question triggered the most awesome Geico commercial in my head :) .

  • 15 12-29-2010 at 12:55 pm

    Hans said...

    @Yih: minor correction, but Marion Cotillard was also nomianted in 2007. Still, your excellent point stands.

    After a quick check of your sidebar predictions, I see that you are predicting that only about twenty-some odd films will garner nominations, but many of them are great, great films. What are your thoughts regarding the quality of good films but lack of quantity this year versus a year like 2009 which had a great quantity of good films? (In other words, how does this year hold up to previous years quality-wise, Oscar-season wise, etc.?)

  • 16 12-29-2010 at 12:56 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    She already had, Simon. She talked about it during our top 10 podcast.

  • 17 12-29-2010 at 1:04 pm

    Pa'Varis said...

    After John Hawkes snagged an SAG noms, do you think his name will be announce when oscars nominations are presented?

  • 18 12-29-2010 at 1:06 pm

    Pa'Varis said...

    Annette Bening is a supporting role not a lead. *not a question but a fact*

  • 19 12-29-2010 at 1:28 pm

    Chris said...

    Do you think with the recent SAG nomination for Hilary Swank in “Conviction”, could open up the possibility of her being nominated at the Oscars?

    That fifth spot seems wide open, and with Nicole Kidman’s “Rabbit Hole” not setting the box-office on fire, it could make the case much more open for a possible shot for Swank.

  • 20 12-29-2010 at 1:47 pm

    Alex C. said...

    overexposure, last year it was avatar and the hurt locker , this year the two perceived front runners in their respective categories, social network and Natalie portman, more the latter. With the pregnancy and engagement and endless amount of 2011 releases should we expect to see some form of backlash smear campaign begin shortly? Has she peaked?

  • 21 12-29-2010 at 2:03 pm

    joey said...

    What are Black Swan’s Best Picture chances? Pick me! It’s my birthday!!!

  • 22 12-29-2010 at 2:07 pm

    Gabriel said...

    Which theater is opening The Way Back today?? I’ve been looking for it and can’t find it. Any reports from Academy screenings, industry reports, etc.? It seems dead. Unfortunate, as this very well may be our last Peter Weir film.

  • 23 12-29-2010 at 2:08 pm

    Patrick said...

    We just had ballots go out this week. Given the surprise Box Office success this weekend and the general overall love for the film, could we see True Grit lead nominations?

  • 24 12-29-2010 at 2:10 pm

    Anthony said...

    I also think True Grit’s chances have increased–with a high Rotten Tomatoes critic reading and great box office, shouldn’t it be higher and do you think the Coens have a Best Director shot?

  • 25 12-29-2010 at 2:18 pm

    Jenny said...

    Why do you think ANOTHER YEAR doesn’t seem to be have any momentum behind it for a best film nom?

  • 26 12-29-2010 at 2:39 pm

    ann said...

    Can David O’Russell be nominated for best director, even with his bad reputation?

  • 27 12-29-2010 at 2:46 pm

    DylanS said...

    Do you think a small indie film like “Winter’s Bone”, with no stars, no notable director or a studio behind it recieves attention because of a chain reaction or because everybody actually thinks it’s that good?

  • 28 12-29-2010 at 3:32 pm

    eurocheese said...

    Which pictures might miss Best Picture but make it into the Screenplay categories?

  • 29 12-29-2010 at 3:49 pm

    Rick Evans said...

    Do you feel the Oscar race have become too highly politicized? If so, what could be done to change it?

  • 30 12-29-2010 at 3:59 pm

    Zoe said...

    Why is James Franco getting more attention than Anne Hathaway on hosting the Oscars?

  • 31 12-29-2010 at 4:15 pm

    Frank Lee said...

    To expand on “Chris’s” question: Which SAG nominee in each of the four categories is most likely to be left off the Oscar nominee list? Robert Duvall? Hilary Swank/Nicole Kidman? John Hawkes? Mila Kunis?

  • 32 12-29-2010 at 4:46 pm

    Marc R. said...

    Forgot my last question. i like this one more. Having recently read about the new films inducted into the national film registry i am wondering, are there any films that you have seen recently or in the past decade or so that you think should be inducted and if so, why?

  • 33 12-29-2010 at 4:51 pm

    Gabriel D. said...

    I haven’t heard much about Nicole Kidman in the best actress race? Do you think she’ll even win one single award for «Rabbit Hole»? Maybe she is going to surprisingly upset SAG and Globes?

  • 34 12-29-2010 at 5:00 pm

    Raffi said...

    @Gabriel, RE: The Way Back

    The Way Back is playing (very randomly I might add) in a theater in Covina, California (around 20-25 miles east of Downtown LA).

    My question: (may build on others already posed)
    Are the year end releases for Another Year and Blue Valentine what have hurt their statuses in the race thus far? Can they make a comeback, especially given how much the Academy has liked Mike Leigh in the past? This question is geared more towards the Best Actress race than anything else. What are Williams and Manville’s chances at this point? What are the chances the Academy goes rogue and nominated Manville in supporting?

    On a related note, I finally got a chance to see “Winter’s Bone” and, while a decent film, I just can’t understand the buzz this it has received. My gut is telling me it’s going to be shut out (I know how silly this may sounds given the SAG nominations). My gut told me a few years ago that Sally Hawkins would miss a nomination (after seeing the film I just wasn’t feeling it). How far fetched is it to say Jennifer Lawrence is going to miss out a nomination? It’s not like there aren’t any actresses clawing to get in.

  • 35 12-29-2010 at 5:45 pm

    Ibbs said...

    Is there something to be said for late releases like Blue Valentine or Another Year seeming like a cooler, bolder, more refreshing choice for the Academy to give some support to after a full month of rewarding the same stale movies? It seems like critics awards are only phase 1 of the Oscar “game” and it very rarely aligns fully with what the Academy ends up choosing.

  • 36 12-29-2010 at 7:33 pm

    Alejandro said...

    I’m gonna keep it simple: Annette Bening or Natalie Portman for Best Actress?

  • 37 12-29-2010 at 8:19 pm

    Louis said...

    Front-runners appear to be Colin Firth (Best Actor), Christian Bale (Best Supp. Actor), and Nathalie Portman (Best Actress). Anyone leading the Best Supporting Actress category or will it remain completely up for grabs this year?

  • 38 12-29-2010 at 10:50 pm

    matsunaga said...

    What are the chances of Kidman at the Globes and SAGs?

    And IF in the event she wins both (since HFPA loves her and she’s yet to win a SAG), will she be at par with Portman and Bening in the race even if Rabbit Hole’s dismal box-office run?

  • 39 12-29-2010 at 11:12 pm

    Kevin K. said...

    Given the momentum of the precursors, do you think The Social Network is now solidified as the Best Picture frontrunner, or can The King’s Speech still win?

  • 40 12-29-2010 at 11:59 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Thanks again folks.