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Now that we’re deep into the precursor season and it seems there are 11 legitimate contenders for 10 Best Picture slots, it seemed a good time to revisit this poll.
I’ve slotted those 11 in the left sidebar, with the obligatory “other” option for those of you who want to predict a curve ball (and we most certainly could get one). But even if you don’t, there’s plenty to discuss regarding your bubble picks, so chalk up your predictions there and come back here with your thoughts.
53 responses so far
1 12-27-2010 at 9:18 am
Robert Hamer said...
Honestly, the ones you have up on the site look like the most reasonable predictions, though I have this nagging feeling that Winter’s Bone is going to have a MUCH stronger showing than anyone’s predicting. What’ll it bump off? I have no idea…maybe The Town?
2 12-27-2010 at 9:28 am
Duncan Houst said...
Whatever happened to “Another Year”? Is that still a major possibility?
3 12-27-2010 at 9:30 am
JJ1 said...
I think 127 Hours, The Town, and Winter’s Bone could be a 9th, 10th, 11th (in no particular order).
I also think that Shutter Island, Ghost Writer, and maybe a Blue Valentine/Another Year are in the 9-15 somewhere.
4 12-27-2010 at 9:49 am
Simon Warrasch said...
The King’s Speech (Lock)
The Social Network (Lock)
True Grit (Lock)
Black Swan (Lock)
Inception (Lock)
Toy Story 3 (Lock)
Winter’s Bone (Lock)
The Fighter (Lock)
The Kids Are All Right (Lock)
127 Hours (For me a Lock)
The Town
Another Year
5 12-27-2010 at 9:57 am
DylanS said...
127 Hours
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
The Town
Toy Story 3
True Grit
6 12-27-2010 at 9:59 am
cineJAB said...
1. Black Swan
2. The Social Network
3. The King’s Speech
4. Inception
5. The Fighter
6. True Grit
7. Toy Story 3
8. Winter’s Bone
9. The Town
10. Blue Valentine
7 12-27-2010 at 10:15 am
Joey said...
There are maybe 3 locks at this stage of the race (The Social Network, The King’s Speech being two of them), but definitely not ten.
127 Hours seems to be fading.
Black Swan
The Social Network
The King’s Speech
The Fighter
True Grit
Inception
Toy Story 3
The Town
Winter’s Bone
Let’s throw a stick in those spokes and go with…
Shutter Island for the tenth spot :o)
8 12-27-2010 at 10:23 am
AmericanRequiem said...
shutter island in tenth
9 12-27-2010 at 10:23 am
Paul Outlaw said...
127 Hours (my pick) or The Town for the tenth spot.
10 12-27-2010 at 10:43 am
Bradley said...
I’d like to see The Kids Are All Right not pop up anywhere again. It was a nice film, but that was it. I don’t believe the TV Sitcom barbs are completely warranted but at the same time it was incredibly lightweight. Annete Bening was good, Moore was better, Ruffalo was short changed and I feel it was a missed opportunity for something deeper. Good, not great and Best Picture SHOULD reward great. We know it doesn’t so we should all accept that Oscar may nominate it but Critics groups rewarding it? Starting to feel like they operate on a hive mind… You’d think there’s be more individuality.
11 12-27-2010 at 10:49 am
SC said...
7 clear nominees:
1. Black Swan
2. The Fighter
3. Inception
4. The King’s Speech
5. The Social Network
6. Toy Story 3
7. True Grit
Then there are four other films fighting for the remaining three spots. “127 Hours” and “The Kids Are All Right” are both fading, buzz-wise. I’ll go a bit on a limb and say the latter gets left off (Bening’s performance is all anyone seems really enthused about).
8. The Town
9. 127 Hours
10. Winter’s Bone
12 12-27-2010 at 11:10 am
Loyal said...
And the nominees are
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
Hurray for 10 nominees and the complete lack of surprises in the Best Picture race!!! One of the many reasons we need to move back to 5 nominees. Having 10 nominees is like awarding a trophy for 8th place.
13 12-27-2010 at 11:12 am
Motke said...
So everybody agrees that the only ones that are not 100% are:
- 127 hours
- The Town
- Winter’s Bone
All three are among AFI’s top 10 and have BFCA noms. 127 misses an NBR nom, which the other two hold. So I predict 127 will turn out 11th :(
14 12-27-2010 at 11:27 am
Loyal said...
“Black Swan” (99%, 73 Votes)
“Toy Story 3″ (99%, 73 Votes)
“The Social Network” (99%, 73 Votes)
“The King’s Speech” (99%, 73 Votes)
“The Fighter” (99%, 73 Votes)
“Inception” (97%, 72 Votes)
Hmmm, someone forgot to vote for Inception. Can you reset the poll Tapley?
15 12-27-2010 at 11:45 am
Andrej said...
- Black Swan.
- The Fighter.
- Inception.
- The Kids Are All Right.
- The King’s Speech.
- 127 Hours.
- The Social Network.
- The Town.
- Toy Story 3.
- Winter’s Bone.
I still have to see True Grit, but of those films it’s the one that strikes me the most as the 11th. No GG recognition, no ensemble nod at the SAGs, the score was disqualified and the screenplay hasn’t been brought up for any award yet. Bridges and Steinfeld could be nominees, but the only true lock here is Deakins.
And it’s true that Winter’s Bone might have less going on awardswise based on production values, but that movie’s among the very few STFU to the Social Network’s winning streak.
16 12-27-2010 at 12:42 pm
James said...
Black Swan
The Fighter
Get Low
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
Winter’s Bone
17 12-27-2010 at 12:50 pm
Andrew F said...
Locks:
Black Swan
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
Winter’s Bone
Sneaking In:
127 Hours
True Grit
Surprise Nominee:
The Ghost Writer
Dark Horse:
Shutter Island
Snubbed:
The Town
Just have this gut feeling about “Ghost Writer”. It’s been popping up every so often throughout the season, the Brits and the continent seem to love it, it’s Polanski, and I suspect it may have a small but passionate base of voters. I’m debating whether or not “The Town”, “True Grit” or “127 Hours” will be snubbed: my guess is “The Town”, which I think is seen more as enjoyable fluff than Best Picture nominee — but I’m not confident in that assessment. I also wouldn’t count out “Shutter Island”, although it does seem unlikely.
18 12-27-2010 at 12:51 pm
Andrew F said...
Oops, meant to say “Sneaking In: 127 Hours OR True Grit”
19 12-27-2010 at 2:30 pm
geha714 said...
My 10 nominees, ordered randomly:
Black Swan
The Social Network
Inception
The King’s Speech
The Kids Are All Right
Winter’s Bone
Toy Story 3
True Grit
The Fighter
The Town
Possible Spoilers:
127 Hours
The Ghost Writer
Shutter Island
Blue Valentine
My personal FYC: Animal Kingdom
Of the 10 films, I see at least 8 locks. The Town and True Grit are not yet a sure thing, but after the good opening it had, Grit is now in better position.
20 12-27-2010 at 2:47 pm
Otto said...
Remember that The Kids Are All Right will regain steam once it wins the Globe (which is obviously going to happen – look at the competition). I think it’s going to be:
1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. Black Swan
4. The Fighter
5. Inception
6. Toy Story 3
7. True Grit
8. Winter’s Bone
9. The Kids Are All Right
10. 127 Hours
With The Town getting left out.
21 12-27-2010 at 3:00 pm
Squirrelman said...
@#13 – Loyal
“Mackey! Refresh!”
22 12-27-2010 at 3:50 pm
PalCinema said...
The Locks:
The Social Network
The King’s Speech
Black Swan
Toy Story 3
Inception
Most likely:
The Fighter
True Grit
The Kids Are All Right
For the last slots:
Winter’s Bone
127 Hours
The Town
Another Year
Shutter Island
127 Hours SHOULD be in there. I’d prefer not to see The Town or Winter’s Bone in there. Another Year could be the surprise.
23 12-27-2010 at 3:53 pm
KB said...
1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. Black Swan
4. True Grit
5. The Fighter
6. Inception
7. Toy Story 3
8. The Kids Are All Right
9. 127 Hours
10. Winter’s Bone
10.
24 12-27-2010 at 5:18 pm
Kyle said...
KB’s list is probably right on the money…though I’d like to take a minute to bask in my late Spring-early Summer prediction that Made in Dagenham would score little awards traction.
25 12-27-2010 at 6:18 pm
A.J said...
Something is going to sneak in to the race. The Blind Side spot? Not to say this spot is for a film similar to The Blind Side, there clearly are none this year, but just a spot for a shocker. With 10 slots a surprise is going to be likely from now on. My “no guts, no glory” prediction would be Scott Pilgrim vs. The World but the non-moron in me would not agree with that prediction.
26 12-27-2010 at 8:17 pm
SJG said...
Like several others, I’m thinking Shutter Island is going to surprise us in that tenth spot, knocking out Winter’s Bone and 127 Hours from your list in the poll, Kristopher.
27 12-27-2010 at 9:28 pm
Jake G. said...
1.Inception
2.The Social Network
3.The Kings Speech
4.Black Swan
5.The Fighter
6.True Grit
7.The Kids Are All Right
8.The Town
9.Hereafter
10.Shutter Island
28 12-28-2010 at 12:24 am
le duff pascal said...
I have decided not to win this contest :
The Social Network
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Another Year
Tamara Drewe
The Ghost Writer
Poetry
Carlos
The Illusionist
You will meet a tall dark stranger
29 12-28-2010 at 5:50 am
JP said...
It’s really down to 11 contenders for 10 spots. See no other film getting into the top 10 now. Last year was a lot more difficult to predict. In the end of 2009, about 20 films were still in the race. Invictus, Star Trek, Nine, Julie & Julia, (500) Days of Summer, The Messenger, Crazy Heart, The Last Station….
30 12-28-2010 at 7:52 am
bluemoon02 said...
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
“Toy Story 3″
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”
“Rabbit Hole”
31 12-28-2010 at 9:43 am
MIKETM732 said...
Up until this weekend I was going along with the standard 11 film idea but now I’m thinking there will be at least 1 surprise nom. I’m still staying pretty conservative…
The Social Network
The King’s Speech
The Fighter
Black Swan
Inception
True Grit
Toy Story 3
Winter’s Bone
The Kids Are Alright
Shutter Island
32 12-28-2010 at 9:54 am
Maxim said...
The poll on the left is a missed opportunity. Restricting the choices for 10(!) to 11 makes the field more strict that it otherwise would be. I, for one, would have liked to have seen just how close our dark horses would have gotten.
I don’t think that “The Town” has the gravitas to get into the ten. Mind you, I haven’t seen it but from where I sit it seems a little outside the ten.
Which is yet another thing people doubting “True Grit” should remember, for whatever it missed out on at Globes, it’s been mentioned elsewhere very often, and yes, that includes the screenplay.
Here’s my 10:
“Black Swan”
“The Fighter”
“Inception”
“The Kids Are All Right”
“The King’s Speech”
“The Social Network”
“Toy Story 3″
“True Grit”
“Winter’s Bone”
“Tangled”
33 12-28-2010 at 10:00 am
Maxim said...
The entire field, as I see is roughly 15 strong). This is where I would place any possible contenders for an upset. If it happens, it will come from here:
Ghost Writer
Another Year
Tangled
127 Hours
Rabbit Hole
34 12-28-2010 at 11:09 am
Otto said...
I think the possible spoilers are The Ghost Writer, Another Year and Rabbit Hole. Besides them, it’s just the 11 we’ve been mentioning.
35 12-28-2010 at 11:57 am
Bradley said...
Inception, as this is one of the reasons 10 slots were introduced due to “The Dark Knight”
The King’s Speech, te most oscarbaity film of the season
The Fighter, no way we are not gonna see this here
Winter’s Bone, the Academy long ago learned to include the critical darling, total lock
Toy Story 3, enuff said
The Social Network, cannot be ignored
I feel these are the locks.
Most probable after:
Black Swan, very much almost a lock, there is no way to ignore this film, but this is the academy
True Grit, it is the Coens after all and the got nominated last year for a great film that made almost no splash
I would say the 8 above are in. Now for the last 2…
Kids are all Right, probable but everyone is saying it is dying off, unfortunate but big chance it may be snubbed, it may well become number 11. bening may be the only nominee, if Ruffalo gets in it will be top 10.
The Town, great movie, good box office, great cast, something the average viewer has seen. If Renner gets a nod count on it.,
127 Hours, great film, tough to watch, it is the Franco show, Boyle has not made a splash in the pre-season and he just won for a better film. may be a sole nomination for Franco.
Another Year, this is the spoiler no one is watching for. Leigh has surprised in the past ala Secrets and Lies, I think he will again. If Manville(in supp or lead) is nominated it is in for sure. If Leigh gets a nod it takes dark horse status.
I believe Shutter Island, although a good film has very little behind it and even the actor traction is low due to performers giving better, or in the case of Leo the same performance in other films.
36 12-28-2010 at 4:02 pm
mikhael said...
What it will look like:
1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. The Fighter
4. Inception
5. 127 Hours
6. Toy Story 3
7. True Grit
8. The Kids Are All Right
9. Black Swan
10. Winter’s Bone
My Top Ten Best Pictures:
1.The Social Network
2.127 Hours
3.Rabbit Hole
4.Never Let Me Go
5.Inception
6.The Ghost Writer
7.Toy Story 3
8.Scott Pilgrim VS The World
9.Kick-Ass
10.Black Swan
37 12-28-2010 at 6:14 pm
m1 said...
127 Hours-Director, Actor, Picture, and Screenplay are totally happening, people are underestimating its potential.
The Social Network-LOCK for all categories it has received major attention for (I don’t think Garfield will be nominated). It will win Best Picture.
The King’s Speech-LOCK in Picture, Director, Screenplay and the three acting categories. It will get several technical nods.
Winter’s Bone-Clearly a major critical darling, it will probably get in.
Black Swan-Picture will probably happen, Director is a lock, need more info on Academy reception to decide any upset nods.
The Town-People, it is not a lock in any major category; it will not get in.
The Kids Are All Right-Assume there is one comedy nominee in the ten. Acting and screenplay nods will help it.
The Ghost Writer-It is such a shame it is being forgotten. I actually liked it more than Inception.
Inception-It will get in, but it will be at the bottom of the top 5.
Toy Story 3-If only it had a chance to win (sigh).
Easy A-Potential Blind Side nominee.
Secretariat-Ditto.
Conviction-Ditto.
Never Let Me Go-Ditto.
The Fighter-The fact that it will get the most acting nods will help it, but director is iffy, so I’ll leave it out.
Rabbit Hole-It will be this year’s A Single Man, so I wouldn’t count on any outside nods.
38 12-28-2010 at 7:49 pm
Carl said...
“Another Year” for the 10th spot.
39 12-28-2010 at 8:10 pm
Jacob S. said...
I think How to Train Your Dragon still has a good chance for a slot. Don’t forget – there are always snubs no one is expecting, and there have to be other movies to take their place.
40 12-28-2010 at 11:41 pm
Andy Kahn said...
THE FIGHTER
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
KING’S SPEECH
TOY STORY 3
TRUE GRIT
THE TOWN
BLACK SWAN
INCEPTION
WINTER’S BONE
SHUTTER ISLAND
41 12-29-2010 at 4:00 am
Graysmith said...
1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. The Fighter
4. Black Swan
5. Inception
6. True Grit
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. Toy Story 3
9. Winter’s Bone
10. The Town
11. 127 Hours
The last three films are a toss-up, I could see any combination of the three making it. 127 Hours seems to be the film that’s really on the down and out right now though, kind of half-flopping at the box office and all.
42 12-29-2010 at 6:29 am
john webb said...
get low
43 12-29-2010 at 6:54 am
Maxim said...
“Toy Story 3-If only it had a chance to win (sigh).”
Sigh indeed. Now if only it could get snabbed altogether.
The fact that we have ten BP nominees is really messed up. The animated race is almost more exclusive!
44 12-29-2010 at 7:38 am
Maxim said...
This could be a great year for bookies, by the way. If King’s Speech continues to be perceived as a frontrunner (in all its 90′s timeless Miramax glory), this could be a good betting opportunity.
45 12-29-2010 at 11:59 am
Brian said...
My top choices are:
1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. The Fighter
4. Black Swan
5. The Kids are Alright
6. Toy Story 3
7. Inception
8.Winter’s Bone
9. True Grit
10. Another Year
Best Actor: Colin Firth
Best Actress: Natalie Portman
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo
(decided to add a bit of spice to the mix!)
46 12-30-2010 at 3:03 am
Chris said...
1. Social Network
2. Black Swan
3. The Kings Speech
4. Toy Story 3
5. Winter’s Bone
6. The Kids are All Right
7. True Grit
8. Inception
9. Rabbit Hole (I really think this still has a chance!)
10. The Town (had the hot box office and a respected director behind it) or The Fighter (it has kind of fizzed out a bit…)
47 12-30-2010 at 9:22 pm
sam said...
i’d love to see
1.Rabbit Hole,
2.Scott Pilgrim vs the world
3. Inception
4. How to Train a Dragon
5. The figheter
6. The kings’ speech
7. Social network
8. kids are are alright
9. The town
10. True Grit
Sorry Black swan was a letdown.
48 1-03-2011 at 5:49 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
The way this has tallied out is interesting to me. That enough people think The King’s Speech WON’T be nominated that it’s at fourth place. I’d like to hear from those folks. Probably a wishful thinking thing from haters, but still…
49 1-11-2011 at 12:01 am
Leone said...
THE KING’S SPEECH
THE FIGHTER
THE TOWN
THE SOCIAL NETWORK
TRUE GRIT
BLACK SWAN
INCEPTION
WINTER’S BONE
TOY STORY 3
WAITING FOR SUPERMAN
yeah, that’s right, I put a doc in the top ten – I realize it’s probably not happening but it damn well should!
Alternate is I guess THE KIDS ARE ALL RIGHT which was… just… all right.
50 1-13-2011 at 12:01 pm
Juan said...
1 Another Year
2 Black Swan
3 Inception
4 The Kids Are All Right
5 The King’s Speech
6 Never Let Me Go
7 The Social Network
8 Toy Story 3
9 True Grit
10 The Way Back
51 1-14-2011 at 4:58 am
Todd said...
In keeping tradition with the original methodology of only picking the best 5 films…. I present in order the best pictures that i saw for 2010
1) Never Let Me Go (thats right… academy loves this stuff)
2) The Kings Speech
3) The Social Network
4) Inception
5) Black Swan
52 1-14-2011 at 5:37 am
Maxim said...
The best film I’ve seen this year is “You Will Meet a Tall Dark Stranger”. Funny and delightful with a wonderful cast.
53 1-14-2011 at 9:25 am
bunbun said...
My “other” for #10 in the predictions list is Shutter Island, which I didn’t like. My wish would be Blue Valentine instead.