December winner predictions

Posted by · 9:00 am · December 1st, 2010

I haven’t bothered taking a stab at predicting this year’s Oscar winners yet.  Now seems like the right time, given that everything has been seen (save for two Sony entries with comedy stylings that look to be commercial enterprises more than awards plays).

I’m long on the record as thinking “The King’s Speech” is the one to beat in this year’s Best Picture race, and little — if anything — has given me reason to think otherwise.  But as I’ve already warned, being out in front so early can be a handicap ultimately, so we’ll see if it pans out accordingly.

I’m not putting a ton of stock into these predictions yet, so you shouldn’t either.  After all, one of my picks isn’t even present in the sidebar predictions at the moment (though that will change in a week’s time).  So just look at this as a chance to spitball some possibilities.  And feel free to offer up your guesses in the comments section below.  My predictions after the jump.

Best Picture: “The King’s Speech”
Best Director: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld, “True Grit”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”
Best Original Screenplay:
“The King’s Speech”
Best Art Direction: “Alice in Wonderland”
Best Cinematography: “True Grit”
Best Costume Design: “Alice in Wonderland”
Best Film Editing: “Inception”
Best Makeup: “Alice in Wonderland”
Best Music (Original Score): “True Grit”
Best Music (Original Song): “Waiting for Superman”
Best Sound Editing: “Inception”
Best Sound Mixing: “Inception”
Best Visual Effects: “Inception”
Best Documentary Feature: “Inside Job”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Toy Story 3”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Life, Above All”

So I guess I’m looking at:

“Inception” – 4 (seems like too many)
“Alice in Wonderland” – 3 (weird)
“The King’s Speech” – 3 (seems like not enough)
“True Grit” – 3
“The Social Network” – 2
“Black Swan” – 1
“The Fighter” – 1
“Inside Job” – 1
“Toy Story 3” – 1
“Live, Above All” – 1

But there’s still plenty of road left in this season.  What about you?  What are your thoughts on potential winners at this early stage?

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100 responses so far

  • 1 12-01-2010 at 11:19 am

    Missy said...

    Every year someone predicts an actor or actress from a Arnofsky film to win and EVERY SINGLE YEAR they lose. Burstyn, Rourke, Tomei, and some of them went through the same physical transformations and Rourke even had the “comeback factor” and he still lost. I think Bening is winning Best Actress.

  • 2 12-01-2010 at 11:27 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Uh, who predicted Burstyn would win? That’s heroically clueless.

  • 3 12-01-2010 at 11:27 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Who was predicting Tomei? That was always Cruz’s Oscar to lose.

  • 4 12-01-2010 at 11:42 am

    Maxim said...

    “Uh, who predicted Burstyn would win? That’s heroically clueless.”

    I’ll give you Tomei (then again, “Cousin Vinny”) and would argue her nomination was a bit of a stretch but Burstyn, might have actually come close if she was in supporting category.

    The woman EARNED it too. It would not have unprecented either. If only critics got behind her like they did for the likes of Monster.

    That said, I was pondering the same point Missy made. I think Portman might lose. But, if nothing else, Black Swan might benefit from all of the goodwill leftover from earlier peformances. It’s whether or not it will rach that critical potential level on this film or later one is the question.

  • 5 12-01-2010 at 11:45 am

    Dignan said...

    Apologies if someone already brought this up but Anne Thompson wrote Carter Burwell’s score was ineligible for True Grit in her review. Is that based on assumption or is that official?

  • 6 12-01-2010 at 11:51 am

    Sean C. said...

    I think “The King’s Speech” could easily get costume design if it wins Best Picture; it’s got a period setting, albeit a familiar one.

  • 7 12-01-2010 at 11:56 am

    Paul8148 said...

    Best Picutre: The Kings Speech
    Best Director: Danny Boyle (127 Hours)
    Best Actor: Colin Firth (The Kings Speech)
    Best Actress: Portman (Black Swan)
    Best Support Actor: Bale (The Fighter)
    Best Supporting Actress: Steinfeld (True Grit)

    Another spread the wealth year. I’m shock myself by predicting Boyle for director, but I got a feeling they want to give 127 Hours something big but I don’t with Franco hosting he has a chance a winning now and talking to people they are stun at how great a movie it is and how Boyle made it work.

  • 8 12-01-2010 at 12:00 pm

    Keil Shults said...

    My guess is that The King’s Speech gets shut out, but to avoid a riot, the Academy creates a Best Stutter category to appease its fans.

    Oh, who am I kidding? I’m sure Firth is a damn near shoo-in.

  • 9 12-01-2010 at 12:04 pm

    Ugarte said...

    No love for Hans Zimmer? I would have thought he was the one to beat for his “Inception” score.

  • 10 12-01-2010 at 12:05 pm

    Adam M. said...

    I say Portman fades, Kidman rises as the season progresses. I have Kidman down for the win.

  • 11 12-01-2010 at 12:15 pm

    DylanS said...

    Best Picture
    “The Social Network”

    Best Director
    David Fincher for “The Social Network”

    Best Actor
    Colin Firth in “The King’s Speech”

    Best Actress
    Natalie Portman in “Black Swan”

    Best Supporting Actor
    Christian Bale in “The Fighter”

    Best Supporting Actress
    Hailee Steinfeld in “True Grit”

    Best Original Screenplay
    “The King’s Speech”

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    “The Social Network”

    Best Editing

    Best Cinematography
    “True Grit”

    Best Art Direction
    “The King’s Speech”

    Best Costume Design
    “Alice in Wonderland”

    Best Makeup
    “Black Swan”

    Best Original Score
    “The Social Network”

    Best Original Song
    “If I Rise” from“127 Hours”

    Best Sound Editing

    Best Sound Mixing

    Best Visual Effects

    Best Animated Feature
    “Toy Story 3”

  • 12 12-01-2010 at 12:27 pm

    Matthew Starr said...

    Kings Speech would be the weakest BP winner since Crash and thus I think Social Network will win the top prize.

  • 13 12-01-2010 at 12:30 pm

    Duncan Houst said...

    As far as Best Actress goes, I’m on Annette Bening’s side for “The Kids Are All Right”. I haven’t seen “Black Swan”, so for all I know, I might end up siding with Portland in the end. Bening was just spectacular in almost every way an actress can be. She was able to accentuate the flaws of her character while forming a real character that people can ultimately sympathize with.

  • 14 12-01-2010 at 12:41 pm

    Drew said...

    I am quite convinced that King’s Speech will sweep the oscars and it will piss people off for decades to come.

  • 15 12-01-2010 at 1:15 pm

    Aaron said...

    Picture: The Social Network
    Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
    Actor: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
    Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
    Supporting Actor: Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech
    Supporting Actress: Amy Adams, The Fighter (I really have no idea on this one)
    Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
    Original Screenplay: The Kids are all Right
    Film Editing: The Social Network (I don’t see how this one can lose, frankly)
    Cinematography: Inception
    Sound Mixing: Inception
    Sound Editing: Inception
    Costume Design: Alice in Wonderland
    Original Song: Tangled (I’m really not familiar with this category. Just picking the Disney one)
    Original Score: Never Let Me Go
    Visual Effects: Inception
    Makeup: Alice in Wonderland
    Animated Feature: Toy Story 3
    Documentary Feature: Waiting for Superman (I feel like this is more culturally relevant than Inside Job. Although I’ll probably be wrong)
    Foreign Language Film: Of Gods and Men, France (it’s a great movie and seems right up Academy’s alley)

    Side note: I feel like Nicole Kidman for Rabbit Hole is the dark horse for best actress. If not Natalie, Kidman will win. This is not Annette Bening’s year.

  • 16 12-01-2010 at 1:17 pm

    Aaron said...

    *Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland

  • 17 12-01-2010 at 1:29 pm

    Maxim said...

    “I am quite convinced that King’s Speech will sweep the oscars and it will piss people off for decades to come.”

    There doesn’t seem to be a “Saving Private Ryan” level opposition to really fuel that kind of venom though.

  • 18 12-01-2010 at 1:35 pm

    daveylow said...

    The King’s Speech is a masterpiece compared to Crash.

  • 19 12-01-2010 at 1:40 pm

    DylanS said...

    And so TKS backlash begins. I’ve heard quite a few people single it out as a “weak” best picture winner.

  • 20 12-01-2010 at 1:49 pm

    Fitz said...

    As long as Nolan nets a Best Director nod, Inception and Black Swan land in the top ten I’ll be happy.

  • 21 12-01-2010 at 2:05 pm

    Kassie said...

    As more Black Swan reviews come in, the average score at Rotten Tomatoes is falling. It’s at a good but not notable 80%, some negatives coming from cream of the crop reviewers. Even the ostensibly positive reviews aren’t raves. I can’t help but think the reviews are going to have an impact on the movie’s noms and it’s doesn’t seem that critics have the same feeling about the movie as the people here do.

  • 22 12-01-2010 at 2:38 pm

    Umur Tas said...

    Best Picture: The Social Network
    Best Director: David Fincher, The Social Network
    Best Actor: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman, Black Swan
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
    Best Supporting Actress: Melissa Leo, The Fighter
    Best Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
    Best Original Screenplay: The King´s Speech
    Best Art Direction: The King’s Speech
    Best Cinematography: Inception
    Best Costume Design: The King’s Speech
    Best Film Editing: Inception
    Best Makeup: Alice in Wonderland
    Best Music (Original Score): Inception
    Best Music (Original Song): Burlesque
    Best Sound Editing: Inception
    Best Sound Mixing: Inception
    Best Visual Effects: Inception
    Best Documentary Feature: Inside Job
    Best Animated Feature Film: Toy Story 3
    Best Foreign Language Film: Honey

  • 23 12-01-2010 at 2:40 pm

    James Stewart said...

    Best Picture: The King´s Speech
    Best Director: Tom Hooper (The King´s Speech)
    Best Actor: Colin Firth (The King´s Speech)
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman (Black Swan)
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale (The Fighter)
    Best Supporting Actress: Hailee Steinfeld (True Grit)
    Best Original Screenplay: The King´s Speech
    Best Adapted Screenplay: True Grit
    Best Art Direction: The King´s Speech
    Best Cinematography: True Grit
    Best Costume Design: The King´s Speech
    Best Film Editing: 127 Hours
    Best Makeup: Alice in Wonderland
    Best Music (Original Score): True Grit
    Best Music (Original Song): “I See the Light” (Tangled)
    Best Sound Editing: TRON: Legacy
    Best Sound Mixing: TRON: Legacy
    Best Visual Effects: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1
    Best Documentary: Inside Job
    Best Animated Feature Film: The Illusionist
    Best Foreign Language Film: Incendies
    P.S.: My 3 favourite films of the year are The Social Network, Inception and Toy Story 3… But like everything I like never win anything at the Oscars … (My favorite movies of 2009 were Antichrist, Moon, A Serious Man and Inglourious Basterds)

  • 24 12-01-2010 at 2:41 pm

    El Rocho said...

    I made a list of my own before even reading this. Kris, you and I are in 100% agreement. Let’s hope it pans out!
    I did, however, have Another Year as the winner for Best Original Screenplay for the longest time until finally seeing The King’s Speech, which solidified all my other ‘blind’ predictions for it’s win. And I think its about time Fincher won. And what a perfect film to do it for him!

  • 25 12-01-2010 at 2:43 pm

    Patryk said...

    Picture: “Inception”
    Director: Ben Affleck
    Actor: Colin Firth
    Actress: Natalie Portman
    Supporting Actor: Christian Bale
    Supporting Actress: Amy Adams
    Original Screenplay: “The King’s Speech”
    Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”
    Cinematography: “Inception”
    Film Editing: “Inception”
    Art Direction: “The King’s Speech”
    Costume Design: “The King’s Speech”
    Sound Mixing: “Inception”
    Sound Editing: “Inception”
    Visual Effects: “Inception”
    Original Song: “127 Hours”
    Original Score: “The King’s Speech”
    Makeup: “Alice in Wonderland”
    Animated Feature: “Toy Story 3”
    Documentary Feature: “Waiting for Superman”
    Foreign Language Film: ‘Biutiful”

  • 26 12-01-2010 at 2:49 pm

    tony rock said...

    Picture: Inception
    Director: David Fincher – Social Network
    Actor: Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
    Actress: Natalie Portman – Black Swan
    Supporting Actor: Christian Bale – The Fighter
    Supporting Actress: Amy Adams – The Fighter
    Original Screenplay: Inception
    Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
    Editing: Inception
    Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland
    Cinematography: True Grit
    Costume Design: The King’s Speech
    Makeup: The Way Back
    Original Score: Inception
    Original Song: 127 Hours
    Sound Mixing: Inception
    Sound Editing: Inception
    Visual FX: Tron Legacy
    Animated: Toy Story 3
    Documentary: Waiting for Superman

  • 27 12-01-2010 at 3:36 pm

    El Rocho said...

    Actually, just thinking about it more, I’m going to put Olivia Williams as the winner for Best Supporting Actress for The Ghost Writer. If their is any justice, Polanski’s The Ghost Writer will get many nominations. Sadly, no wins, but it deserves all the attention possible. One of the best of the year, one of Polanski’s finest, and an overall brilliant film. Hitchcock would be proud.

  • 28 12-01-2010 at 3:54 pm

    Chad Hartigan said...

    By my count, Million Dollar Baby is the only Best Picture winner in the last 20 years to not feature a gun (or comparable weapon for the period). Useless trivia of the day.

  • 29 12-01-2010 at 3:54 pm

    kid said...

    Has anybody seen the Tourist?

  • 30 12-01-2010 at 3:59 pm

    kid said...

    @Chad, wouldn’t you have to go all the way back to Driving Miss Daisy to find another film without a gun?

  • 31 12-01-2010 at 4:00 pm

    kid said...

    Oh nvm I thought that was last 10 years my bad.

  • 32 12-01-2010 at 5:10 pm

    ninja said...

    King`s Speech is not winning jacks***, only Firth, maybe, he or Franco. But picture, director? Lol, no way.

  • 33 12-01-2010 at 5:51 pm

    Ben M. said...

    Picture: The King’s Speech
    Director: Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
    Actor: Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
    Actress: Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
    Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, The Fighter
    Supporting Actress: Haille Steinfeld, True Grit
    Original Screenplay: The King’s Speech
    Adapted Screenplay: The Social Network
    Cinematography: True Grit
    Editing: The Social Network
    Costume Design: The King’s Speech
    Art Direction: Alice in Wonderland
    Make-up: Alice in Wonderland
    Score: The King’s Speech
    Song: Toy Story 3
    Sound Mixing: True Grit
    Sound Editing: Inception
    Visual Effects: Inception
    Animated: Toy Story 3
    Documentary: Waiting for Superman
    Foreign Language: Of Gods and Men

  • 34 12-01-2010 at 6:03 pm

    Hero said...

    “And I cannot help but wonder what someone like Philip Glass would have done with the music here instead.”

    Maxim, don’t even get me started on another composer the Academy doesn’t like for completely perplexing reasons!

  • 35 12-01-2010 at 6:51 pm

    Jacob S. said...

    Best Picture: “The Social Network”
    Best Director: David Fincher, “The Social Network”
    Best Actor: Colin Firth, “The King’s Speech”
    Best Actress: Natalie Portman, “Black Swan”
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale, “The Fighter”
    Best Supporting Actress: Olivia Williams, “The Ghost Writer”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “The Social Network”
    Best Original Screenplay: “The Kids Are Alright”
    Best Art Direction: “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 1”
    Best Cinematography: “True Grit”
    Best Costume Design: “The King’s Speech”
    Best Film Editing: “The Social Network”
    Best Makeup: “Black Swan”
    Best Music (Original Score): Toss-up between “HTTYD” and “Inception”
    Best Music (Original Song): “I See the Light” from “Tangled”
    Best Sound Editing: “Toy Story 3”
    Best Sound Mixing: “The Social Network” or “Inception,” I can’t pick.
    Best Visual Effects: “Inception”
    Best Documentary Feature: “Inside Job”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Toy Story 3”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “Biutiful”

    I’m surprised no one else picked “Biutiful” for best foreign language film. The Academy loved “Babel” and Javier Bardem stands a very good chance of getting a Best Actor nomination.

  • 36 12-01-2010 at 7:09 pm

    Jacob S. said...

    Kris, I’m also surprised you split BP, Director, AND Film Editing. Splitting them into two different movies is risky enough, but three is pretty risky.

  • 37 12-01-2010 at 7:22 pm

    Douglas said...

    you probably just haven’t updated your predictions but Hailee Steinfeld isn’t even on the side nominations column.

  • 38 12-01-2010 at 10:03 pm

    /3rtfu11 said...

    The Cult of Christian Bale is the scariest celebrity cult of them all.

  • 39 12-02-2010 at 12:57 am

    Rob T. said...

    I think The Social Network is still more likely to win “best picture” than The King’s Speech at this point, though that’s partly because I’ve seen the former but not the latter (which doesn’t open in my area until Christmas Eve). I also think it’s possible that buzz for Inception or The Kids Are Alright might start up again, especially for the latter if it does well in the precursors. (Wishful thinking on my part, I’m sure; these are my two favorite movies of the year so far.) It’s possible that some of those tech nods (especially for sound, though cinematography and editing can’t be ruled out) might go to 127 Hours.

    I’m struck by your current division of awards, with a single film getting four Oscars and several getting three apiece. It reminds me of 2005 when four very different sorts of films each won three Oscars (Crash, Brokeback Mountain, Memoirs of a Geisha and King Kong) and four other movies split the acting Oscars between them (Capote, Walk the Line, Syriana and The Constant Gardener). I thought last year might have a similar division, and was quite surprised to see The Hurt Locker pick up the screenplay and both sound Oscars. If we do see a 2005-style division with this year’s Oscars, I bet it’ll shake out very differently from how you’ve got it now.

    (Incidentally, you left Waiting for Superman out of your breakdown of “winners”.)

  • 40 12-02-2010 at 5:26 am

    tony rock said...

    I don’t know, people…can you really see The King’s Speech winning after four consecutive years where AMPAS chose the very un-baitish likes of The Departed, No Country for Old Men, Slumdog Millionaire, and The Hurt Locker?

  • 41 12-02-2010 at 6:08 am

    Jack said...

    Who really cares. The Academy Awards is a LosAngeles/MotionPictureIndustry popularity contest that tells us NOTHING about the QUALITY of ANYTHING. The winners they’ve chosen over the years have been uniformly ridiculous. Don’t waste your time with this crap…

  • 42 12-02-2010 at 6:45 am

    Maxim said...

    “As more Black Swan reviews come in, the average score at Rotten Tomatoes is falling. It’s at a good but not notable 80%, some negatives coming from cream of the crop reviewers.”

    This actually happens quite often. The score might shoot up again. And it is not suprising that the more conservative critics may not love it. That was to be expected. That means little.

    “Maxim, don’t even get me started on another composer the Academy doesn’t like for completely perplexing reasons!”

    At least they managed to nominate him three times. Not enough, of course, but you take what you can.

    Also, Naqqoyqatsi – the best score of the decade.

  • 43 12-02-2010 at 11:27 am

    John said...

    Now, I call BS on your post, Maxim!!! (sorry, I just thought that was funny expression. by the way, I’m referring to #40, I believe.)

    Screenplay, Editing
    Q: ” you are making leaps upon leaps and are taking things that are, at best, questionable, as fact.”
    A: Yes. I call it PREDICTION.

    Me–“INCEPTION is the #3 prediction right now on a lot of lists.”
    You–“Whose lists, John? I’ll let you ponder that point for a second, before I offer that these lists represent a picture’s chances being nominated and NOT of it winning. Get the difference? Ask any of those making predictions and I virtually guarantee that absolute majorite will never translate their third place placements to third place averages of entre voting bodies first or even second round voting.”
    Response–If you’re saying that it’s not #3 on a lot of people’s lists, then fine. I’ve seen it pretty high on most lists, but since I didn’t cite any, you’re free to contest that. However, your argument then seems to be a “even if that’s true, though” argument, so I’ll assume it is #3 in rebutting the next argument.
    I really didn’t know what your next argument was… However, I think you’re saying that just because a movie is likely to get nominated doesn’t mean anyone thinks it will win. This is very true, but if you’re looking for a possible spoiler and your #1 and #2 are in a tight race, looking at #3 is a reasonable place to look.

    You–“Moreover, your vote split theory is really well infomed as it shows little understanding how AMPAS’ voting process really works. Do yourself a favor and read up on it. It’s not at all about two frontrunners totally canceling each other out.”
    Response–again, no idea what the point of this was! However, I shall again try to explain my “split theory.” So, as I understand the final voting process for the Oscars, once the nominees are announces, the voters are free to cast a ballot for whichever of the nominees they like. Kind of like any voting process where you vote for a favorite. If you have one movie way out front and a finite number of votes, second place is going to have to find a whole lot of votes somewhere in order to stage an upset. However, if you have two movies that are neck-and-neck, then the winner isn’t going to have nearly as many votes as the winner in the first situation. Thus, for #3 to stage an upset, it doesn’t need to find nearly as many votes as #2 did in the previous scenario. Also, it means whatever wins isn’t going to have a majority of the voters, so it doesn’t have to appeal to as wide an audience.

    You–“I, too, won’t argue of Inception’s chances being nominated.”
    Response–“too” implies that there’s something else you didn’t want to argue, yet this is the first thing you haven’t wanted to argue. Which is good. Common ground!

    You–But winning? Heck, I’d say Toy Story (which has everything you’ve listed on Inception going for it plus more) has a bigger snowball’s chance.
    Response–OK, so you’re validating the things I’ve listed for Inception. you see, more common ground!
    Yes, Toy Story 3 is the other blockbuster/big hit/people’s movie in the mix (so far, at least…) It has a few issues: 1) the Animated Feature award might be a consolication prize, 2) so far 0 animated movies have won and only 2 sequels, 3) INCEPTION will likely get a lot more nominations, since it’s a tech powerhouse and animated movies don’t compete in a lot of categories. Using Kris’ predictions, INCEPTION
    might get 10, TOY STORY only 4; 4) TOY STORY won’t likely have acting, directing, or editing nominations. It’s hard to win without any of those. Further, INCEPTION will appeal to all branches of the Academy, while animated movies don;t employ the skills of everyone in the Academy. 5) INCEPTION has a star director and star actor out front; Pixar and the voice of Tom Hanks aren’t bad for stars, but a popular director and Tom Hanks in the flesh would be more competitive.

    You–“And we’ve heard all the same reasons before for “The Matrix, The Dark Knight and ET”. Didn’t help much then, did it?
    Me–No, although it seemed to work for GLADIATOR, LORD OF THE RINGS 3, TITANIC, and FORREST GUMP.

    You–“Your hand-picked examples don’t make much sense either. What does Adrien Brody or Braveheart (both very strong, best director winning contenders) have to do with Inception or it’s opposition?”
    Response–Going into the big night, Daniel Day Lewis and Jack Nicholson were the two frontrunners with major liabilities, while Adrien Brody was the darkhorse. Going in to December 1995, SENSE AND SENSIBILITY and APOLLO 13 were the two frontrunners that we weren;t quite sure on, until Mel won the Golden Globe for director and then everyone remembered how much they liked that movie.

    You–And please spare, me the whole “don’t appeal to everybody” logic. That almost never happens anyway.
    Me–Good, you agree that that never happens. So, let’s look at what movie would best fit with the people whom KING’S SPEECH and SOCIAL NETWORK don’t appeal to. they’re both arthouse pictures with crossover appeal. Thus a blockbuster that could play in an arthouse seems like a viable alternative. Thus, INCEPTION!

    Finally, if you would like to respond, may I request more argument, less pointless snark!

  • 44 12-02-2010 at 11:54 am

    Maxim said...

    John, I don’t know where to start with you since you keep using rankings made by people who predict the likelihood of a nomination as the basis of your winning scenario analysis.

    I am not saying that Inceptions is “not #3 on a lot of people’s lists”. I’ve seen the lists you are referring to.

    It’s just that I firmly believe that there is a difference here and insist that that 3rd place position you keep coming back to doesn’t necessrily translate to a most likely winning spoiler. I really cannot explain this any better without being redundant but I’ll try. Unless otherwise specified, people make ranking based on a nomination likelihood which is different from winning likelihood.

    Nevermind that those people don’t actually get to vote for movies. Sorry for trying to add some objectivity to a purely hypotehtical conversation. You are certainly free to use your own logic to come up with your own predictions. It’s all for fun anyway and I’d really hate for this to sound the wrong way.

    That said, since we are talking and debating, if I see a place where I can provide a good argument or correct some misconceptions I try to do so. I still believe, for example, that your grasp of the voting process is somewhat shaky (as is true for most people, actually).

    I’ll also end by saying that Inception is a lot more comparible to Avatar, Matrix, Minority Report and ET then it is to Gladiator (huh?), Return of the King, Titanic and Forest Gump. Combined. Frankly, the invocation of those titles in the concept of Inception is as puzzling to me as how Rich Ross is using then in regard to Toy Story 3. But that is another story.

    And just so it doesn’t sound like snark, I’ll clarify that you cannot compare a sci-fi film (which, while good wasn’t groundbracking – I am sorry) to a film like Titanic. Just like when you insisted on genre basis for Toy Story I will argue for the same here.

  • 45 12-02-2010 at 2:45 pm

    John said...

    All right, Mr. Maxim, I shall engage!
    So you agree it will likely be nominated, and you have seen Inception #3 on many prediction lists of movies likely to get nominated. Whether or not that is the third most likely movie to win or not, it does show a fairly strong base of support. Furthermore, just a guess, but its box-office does indicate that many people have seen it.
    (Oscar voters are a) human and b) don;t see everything, so the fact that a movie made some bank makes it arguably likely that many voters have seen it.)

    Next point, the Oscarologists don’t vote, the voters do. This is quite true. Right now, the Oscarologists are telling us that KINGS SPEECH or SOCIAL NETWORK will win (and predicting otherwise is folly!) Well, that’s fine and well, but it doesn;t mean that’s what they’ll actually vote for. See CRASH or Juliette Binoche. What it does mean is that the frontrunner is the guy who gets backlash. Thus, if INCEPTION can remain viable throughout Awards season without becoming the frontrunner, then it can be positioned as the viable alternative. It’s already been mentioned by the Grammys, the Golden Satellites and NBR, so that remains a likely scenario.

    Sure, we’re talking and debating on an engaging topic, and I thought it was funny when you called BS on someone’s post, hence why I used that.

    voting process? Uh, everyone votes for 10 movies + the category in which they are a member. Price Waterhouse looks at the #1 votes, sees if there’s enough to get a nominee, then they go to the #2s and so on. Thus, to get nominated, you have to be a lot of people’s favorite choice of the movies that are nominated. then everyone votes for their favorite contender in each category. Am I right?

    Yeah, it’s more like the movies you mentioned than the ones I mentioned. My point was that the popular blockbuster can win. No, it wasn’t as big or popular as LORD OF THE RINGS, GUMP, or TITANIC. I’d say it was about on par with GLADIATOR, which was viewed somewhat similarly as December arrived 10 years ago: popular summer movie that looked like it could get nominated, but would the Academy really go for that?

    One other factor it’s got in its favor is that Mr. Nolan got snubbed for THE DARK KNIGHT, MEMENTO (OK, less so, but he got a DGA nom for that).

    I believe you also doubted INCEPTION’s likelihood of nomination for Screenplay? Well, popular writer, we know it wasn’t written by committee, inventive ideas, hypercomplicated plotting, emotional core at the center… yeah, I think that can get nominated. Also, writers would likely want to reward a writer who got a brainy blockuster made by studio dilletantes!

    EDITING? Action movie, cutting between three levels of something at three different speeds… yeah I think it can win for Editing. SOCIAL NETWORK and 127 HOURS would seem to be its biggest competition.

    Oh, I haven’T SEEN the kings speech. iS THAT likely to be nominated for Editing?

  • 46 12-05-2010 at 12:14 am

    Leone said...

    Admittedly, I haven’t seen True Grit but I have seen The Fighter and there’s no way any performance can beat Melissa Leo’s portrayal as that mother. No one.

  • 47 12-05-2010 at 12:51 pm

    Domenica said...

    Best Picture: The King’s Speech
    Best Director: David Fincher ‘The Social Network’
    Best Actor: Colin Firth ‘The King’s Speech’
    Best Actress: Lesley Manville ‘Another Year’
    Best Supporting Actor: Christian Bale ‘The Fighter’
    Best Supporting Actress: Helena Bonham Carter ‘The King’s Speech’
    I think anyone who sees Manville’s performance will not be able to vote for anyone else. She’s truly extraordinary and deserves the award. James Franco might beat Colin Firth but seeing as Firth deserved to win last year they might make it up to him with this award. Melissa Leo is a serious threat for Bonham Carter, both are wonderful actresses so … And Geoffrey Rush might sneak in too. But I don’t know.

  • 48 12-05-2010 at 2:44 pm

    devon said...

    tron legacy will win for best visual effects no film in 2D will ever win best visual effects again

  • 49 12-07-2010 at 9:48 am

    Maxim said...

    John, I think that the reason why we are disagreeing (and I don’t think that until after the Oscars are awarded and at least one of us is afforded the much needed benefit of hindsight we will see eye to eye) is beause we are approaching this debate from two widely different positions. You are a passionate fan, going for whatever strong points you are seeing while I am more reserved when it comes to Oscars and perfectly willing to examine any and all points of contention.

    Again, I’ve certainly been were you are before in terms of having a personal stake in the race so I can at understand how that feels, excitement and all.

    So this becomes not about what will win but, as it often happens, about us. Explaining where we stand and maybe learning something from each other. That’s the takeaway as far as I see it.

    The root of the disagreement, which in turn I think stems from the views I described above lies in the fact that you firmly stand by your #3 placement theory. Not just as reflected on lists (wherein it is no longer that hight, btw) but actual reality. I cannot agree to that. Please understand that, this has little to do with qualities of the film or the lack of thereof.

    I will not, you know, bet my money on it, but then I wouldn’t do that for any film, not the least for one I know will be nominated. Here, again is that issue of difference between nominees and winners. A point you have twice declined to really address in a thread about winner predictions.

    And so when you list all those reason for why Inception will be nominated or will win Best Original Screenplay, to me they read more like reasons why it SHOULD be nominated because that’s just how I view Oscars and most other types of awards. It’s not like I don’t think it has no chance either. I am just, you know, reserved, if only because of Nolan’s track record.

    Then there are things I disagree with to a greater extend. For one thing, Crash was always a big player in the race and for all the weird calls he has made, I just don’t see Roger Ebert predicting “Inception” for the win (again, see the title of this thread). And as for this:

    ” Thus, if INCEPTION can remain viable throughout Awards season without becoming the frontrunner, then it can be positioned as the viable alternative. It’s already been mentioned by the Grammys, the Golden Satellites and NBR, so that remains a likely scenario.”

    Mentions are just that – mentions. And there is nothing wrong with being mentioned. I think it is a big honor, personally and don’t realy want to cheapen it.

    And on a personal level, Inception’s editing to me, while undeniably impressive all things considered, was also sloppy at times. Part of it is due to the accsionally bloated nature of the proceedings (sorry) but still.