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No column today

Posted by · 9:42 am · November 15th, 2010

Off the Carpet will stay in the garage another seven days.  But I have gone through the Contenders section and done some tweaking, as well as updated the predictions sidebar.  Everything is beginning to feel more insular than ever with awards coverage.  Who cares what us blowhard analysts have to offer?  It’s time for industry feedback, already.  Once screeners hit just before Thanksgiving and voters begin catching up on titles, we’ll start to get a much better idea of the season’s path.  Feel free to use this space for your own predictions or other thoughts.




→ 29 Comments Tags: | Filed in: Daily

29 responses so far

  • 1 11-15-2010 at 9:54 am

    JJ1 said...

    Yeah, because everything seems to set, I’m waiting for the precursors to start trickling in so we really know what we’re dealing with. I love this time (Oct-Feb).

  • 2 11-15-2010 at 10:54 am

    Matthew Starr said...

    A month or so ago you had Mike Leigh in the top five directors, now Another Year is not even in the top ten. What happened?

    I’ve now seen everything on that list of ten except The Fighter, True Grit and The Way Back. Another Year is pretty much better than all the other films.

    I saw King’s Speech last week and found it to be pretty underwhelming. Fine for what it is but if this is really the front runner then we’re looking at English Patient over Fargo/Secrets and Lies and Shakespeare in Love over SPR/Thin Red Line again.

    But I guess this is why you use the word insular so much as an Oscar prognosticator.

  • 3 11-15-2010 at 11:13 am

    Jeremy said...

    I agree with Another Year falling off the top 10…but COME ON—Black Swan will most likely reap 4-5 nominations including picture. Time to let The Way Back, fall way back.

  • 4 11-15-2010 at 11:31 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Matt: Another Year was gone last week in favor of The Town. For now. I’m left wondering which film, Made in Dagenham or Another Year, Sony Classics can usher into the field.

    And I have a feeling seeing The King’s Speech before everyone loved it benefited those of us who, well, love it. Because it was set up for a fall with the amount of praise it got.

    Jeremy: Have you seen Black Swan? Or The Way Back, for that matter?

  • 5 11-15-2010 at 11:34 am

    Patriotsfan said...

    I wonder even if Another Year is not nominated for best picture, if Mike Leigh could still get a directing nomination. Maybe I’m wrong, but even with ten nominations, I don’t think Vera Drake would have been nominated for best picture in 2004.

    There are a few other examples where the directors branch was willing to nominate directors of films that had little chance for a best picture nomination, so I’m not so sure that we can count out directors whose movies aren’t nominated for best picture.

  • 6 11-15-2010 at 11:42 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    I think Vera would have been in there in 2004, actually. The only one that stands out as potentially an anomaly (as we’ve discussed before) is Talk to Her, I think. And MAYBE Mulholland Drive.

  • 7 11-15-2010 at 11:44 am

    Kevin K. said...

    Best Picture
    127 Hours
    Black Swan
    The Fighter
    Inception
    The King’s Speech
    The Social Network
    The Town
    Toy Story 3
    True Grit
    Winter’s Bone

    Alternate: The Way Back

    Best Director
    Danny Boyle – 127 Hours
    Christopher Nolan – Inception
    Tom Hooper – The King’s Speech
    David Fincher – The Social Network
    Darren Aronofsky – Black Swan

    Alternate: Peter Weir – The Way Back

    Best Actor
    Jeff Bridges – True Grit
    Jesse Eisenberg – The Social Network
    Colin Firth – The King’s Speech
    James Franco – 127 Hours
    Ryan Gosling – Blue Valentine

    Alternate: Robert Duvall – Get Low

    Best Actress
    Annette Bening – The Kids Are All Right
    Nicole Kidman – Rabbit Hole
    Jennifer Lawrence – Winter’s Bone
    Lesley Manville – Another Year
    Natalie Portman – Black Swan

    Alternate: Michelle Williams – Blue Valentine

    Best Supporting Actor
    Christian Bale – The Fighter
    Aaron Eckhart – Rabbit Hole
    Andrew Garfield – The Social Network
    Mark Ruffalo – The Kids Are All Right
    Geoffrey Rush – The King’s Speech

    Alternate: Jeremy Renner – The Town

    Best Supporting Actress
    Amy Adams – The Fighter
    Helena Bonham Carter – The King’s Speech
    Sally Hawkins – Made In Dagenham
    Miranda Richardson – Made In Dagenham
    Dianne Wiest – Rabbit Hole

    Alternate: Hailee Stienfeld – True Grit

    Best Adapted Screenplay
    127 Hours
    The Social Network
    The Town
    Toy Story 3
    True Grit

    Best Original Screenplay
    Another Year
    Black Swan
    Inception
    The Kids Are All Right
    The King’s Speech

    Best Art Direction
    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
    Inception
    The King’s Speech
    Shutter Island
    True Grit

    Alternate: Alice in Wonderland

    Best Cinematography
    127 Hours
    Inception
    Shutter Island
    True Grit
    The Way Back

    Alternate: Black Swan

    Best Costume Design
    Alice in Wonderland
    Inception
    The King’s Speech
    Shutter Island
    True Grit

    Alternate: Black Swan

    Best Editing
    127 Hours
    Inception
    The Social Network
    True Grit
    The Town

    Alternate: The Way Back

    Best Makeup
    Alice in Wonderland
    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
    Shutter Island

    Alternate: The Way Back

    Best Original Score
    How to Train Your Dragon
    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
    Inception
    Let Me In
    The Social Network

    Alternate: The King’s Speech

    Best Original Song
    127 Hours
    Tangled
    Tangled
    Toy Story 3
    Waiting for Superman

    Alternate: None

    Best Sound Editing:
    127 Hours
    How to Train Your Dragon
    Inception
    Toy Story 3
    TRON: Legacy

    Alternate: Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1

    Best Sound Mixing
    127 Hours
    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
    How to Train Your Dragon
    Inception
    Toy Story 3

    Alternate: TRON: Legacy

    Best Visual Effects
    Alice in Wonderland
    Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1
    Inception
    Iron Man 2
    TRON: Legacy

    Alternate: Black Swan

    Best Animated Feature Film
    How to Train Your Dragon
    The Illusionist
    Toy Story 3

    Alternate: Despicable Me

  • 8 11-15-2010 at 11:45 am

    Matthew Starr said...

    I can’t speak for others but I usually don’t let the amount of praise for a film deter my thoughts on it. TS3, Inception and Social Network all got tons of praise before I saw them and I thoroughly enjoyed all three of them. I just can’t say the same about King’s Speech. I mean it’s good but not top 10-15 of the year in my estimation.

    I had a chance to see King’s Speech back in February as Weinstein is always testing movies in NY (got an invite to Dirty Girl which I did not go to last week) and I am pretty certain I would have felt the same back in February about it.

  • 9 11-15-2010 at 11:45 am

    Kevin K. said...

    I keep trying to post my predictions in the comment box but it won’t accept it and every time I hit submit it just brings me back to the front page. :(

  • 10 11-15-2010 at 11:55 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Fair enough, Matt.

    RE: Predictions, it won’t allow you to post a bunch at once, so maybe do major categories first and then techs. And keep it tight and don’t use a ton of characters. Just the way the commenting feature functions. They’re probably saved as spam on the backend so I’ll free them up.

  • 11 11-15-2010 at 11:56 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    It’s there now, but yeah, break it up next time.

  • 12 11-15-2010 at 11:59 am

    Kevin K. said...

    Cool, thanks. Break it up next time, duly noted :)

  • 13 11-15-2010 at 12:01 pm

    Kevin K. said...

    Also, I will say that right now I think we’re just kind of talking in circles until the first rounds of critics awards and such pop up. Who is usually first? NBR? AFI?

  • 14 11-15-2010 at 12:05 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    NBR will be in two weeks. I think they’re first.

  • 15 11-15-2010 at 12:06 pm

    Chad Hartigan said...

    It’s Tapley’s birthday everyone. Happy birthday Kris and take the rest of the day off.

  • 16 11-15-2010 at 12:06 pm

    Kevin K. said...

    Sounds about right. I imagine they might throw a curveball into the picture ala Woody Harrelson last year.

  • 17 11-15-2010 at 12:08 pm

    Kevin K. said...

    Happy Birthday Kris! Hope you have a great one!

  • 18 11-15-2010 at 12:11 pm

    Patriotsfan said...

    Kris: How about City of God in 2003? Do you think that would have been part of a ten best picture field? There are also some older examples (like every time Fellini was nominated, or when Kurosawa was nominated for Ran), but they may be too old to be relevant in discussing what the Academy will do this year.

  • 19 11-15-2010 at 12:16 pm

    Patriotsfan said...

    And apparently, Happy Birthday! Hopefully the Redskins will tonight for a good birthday present.

  • 20 11-15-2010 at 12:17 pm

    Patriotsfan said...

    win*

  • 21 11-15-2010 at 12:52 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Patriotsfan: That’s probably another one. MAYBE. Lots of love for that film, it turned out.

    And thanks for the birthday wishes, everyone.

  • 22 11-15-2010 at 12:58 pm

    JJ1 said...

    Happy Birthday, Kris!

  • 23 11-15-2010 at 1:50 pm

    Kyle said...

    Happy birthday man!

  • 24 11-15-2010 at 2:56 pm

    Hero said...

    Happy birthday!

    And even if there isn’t much new going on, we’re always happy to hear what you have to say.

  • 25 11-15-2010 at 4:09 pm

    Erik said...

    Happy birthday, Kris!

    I was wondering why you don’t have Michael Giacchino’s score for Let Me In listed in your predictions for Original Score. Is it a matter of you not liking it or is it just not getting that much buzz? I would think his win from last year would give him enough momentum to garner a nom this go around.

  • 26 11-15-2010 at 4:44 pm

    Mitchell said...

    FYI: There’s a picture from The Tempest in the Original Score column even though you’re not predicting it.

  • 27 11-15-2010 at 6:46 pm

    Angry Shark said...

    Okay, this is how we do this. THIS IS HOW WE ROLL.

    Picture
    The Fighter
    Inception
    The Kids Are All Right
    The King’s Speech
    127 Hours
    The Social Network
    The Town
    Toy Story 3
    True Grit
    Winter’s Bone

    Director
    Chris Nolan, Inception
    Darren Aronofsky, Black Swan
    Tom Hooper, The King’s Speech
    David Fincher, The Social Network
    Danny Boyle, 127 Hours

    Actor
    Jeff Bridges, True Grit
    Robert Duvall, Get Low
    Jesse Eisenberg, The Social Network
    Colin Firth, The King’s Speech
    James Franco, 127 Hours

    Actress
    Annette Bening, The Kids Are All Right
    Nicole Kidman, Rabbit Hole
    Jennifer Lawrence, Winter’s Bone
    Julianne Moore, The Kids Are All Right
    Natalie Portman, Black Swan

    Supporting Actor
    Christian Bale, The Fighter
    Andrew Garfield, The Social Network
    Ed Harris, The Way Back
    Mark Ruffalo, The Kids Are All Right
    Geoffrey Rush, The King’s Speech

    Supporting Actress
    Amy Adams, The Fighter
    Helena Bonham Carter, The King’s Speech
    Melissa Leo, The Fighter
    Lesley Manville, Another Year
    Jacki Weaver, Animal Kingdom

  • 28 11-15-2010 at 7:50 pm

    Chris said...

    Angry Shark, thats my dream list of nominations right there. Hope you’re right.

  • 29 11-15-2010 at 10:54 pm

    Koto said...

    Happy Birthday、 Kris!

    Hope you have a great one!