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Also by request, I’ve updated this week’s sidebar poll. It’s October and I know a number of you haven’t been able to see most of the contenders, but it’s good to get an early gauge of what the readership thinks will be nominated come January. And it dovetails nicely with our new Calling All Predictions feature.
In the left sidebar I have listed what I think are the 27 films with a legitimate shot at a Best Picture nomination this year. Granted, things can change. Something could jump up and surprise. And we all know there are films that will fall out of contention. So perhaps we’ll update with another poll later in the season. But for now, I’d say 27 is a beefy enough number, and in case someone wants to go out onto a limb, the requisite “other” selection has been included. Just be sure to let us know in the comments section here what you’re thinking.
So have at it. You can select no more than 10 so just crank out your predictions and we’ll see how right (and wrong) you all are in a few months time.
51 responses so far
1 10-18-2010 at 3:18 pm
Mike Ward said...
Winter’s Bone for my other…
2 10-18-2010 at 3:19 pm
Corey said...
My predictions weren’t far off from yours, Kris, but take out THE FIGHTER and THE WAY BACK and replace them with THE TOWN and WINTER’S BONE (my “other” prediction).
3 10-18-2010 at 3:29 pm
JJ1 said...
I agree with 9 out of Kris’ 10 for now. The only exception is that I still have Shutter Island in, and The Fighter out.
4 10-18-2010 at 3:33 pm
Dean said...
Winter’s Bone?
5 10-18-2010 at 3:34 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Winter’s Bone is actually on the list. I moved your vote there, Mike.
6 10-18-2010 at 3:40 pm
Dylan said...
I try to be free-thinking and everything…..but then I look up and see that I match Kris 10/10.
I think it might be neat to do a “10 most wanted BP nominations” and see how it differs.
7 10-18-2010 at 3:40 pm
Chad Hartigan said...
Forced to choose right now, I think Shutter Island will get in before Inception does.
8 10-18-2010 at 3:50 pm
americanrequiem said...
i still dont see inception as the slam dunk everyone seems to think it is, we’ll see. Im still rooting for shutter island
9 10-18-2010 at 3:54 pm
Loyal said...
My 10 hasn’t really changed much over the past month or so.
127 Hours
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
The Way Back
For Colored Girls is tracking well at the box office. If it can make $100m, I think it’ll get in despite any lack of critical support (assuming it’s crap), “The Blind Side Spot” if you will.
10 10-18-2010 at 3:58 pm
John said...
No way for Shutter Island.
Swap The Way Back with The Town and Another Year with Black Swan.
11 10-18-2010 at 4:02 pm
Loyal said...
My 10 are more or less unchanged for quite some time now.
127 Hours
Another Year
The Fighter
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
True Grit
The Way Back
IF For Colored Girls manages $100m, I think it’ll break into the 10 despite any lack of critical support (assuming the film is a mess). The “Blind Side Spot” if you will.
12 10-18-2010 at 4:02 pm
James said...
My predictions were identical to Kris. I didn’t really leave myself up for any surprises, but that could change in the next month or so.
I guess the only ones I’m not confident on and two of which haven’t been seen is
True Grit
The Fighter
The Way Back
I’d be surprised if the Coens misfired on this one, but its certainly possible. Is the Academy in love with Westerns? I’m not so sure. Do they respect and admire the Coens? Thankfully yes they do.
The Way Back. Glad to see this back in the oscar discussion. Very interested in seeing this, but while Weir is certainly admired, will the film receive tons of love?
The Fighter. Honestly I’m not sure where to place this, but that ad last night jacked my excitment back up. I mean its tough to say. This could be a potential character drama that will hit the right notes with the Academy or it will be a fell good story that will hit those same notes either way.
13 10-18-2010 at 4:03 pm
Loyal said...
My 10 are more or less unchanged for quite some time now
127 Hours, Another Year, The Fighter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The King’s Speech, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, The Way Back.
IF For Colored Girls manages $100m, I think it’ll break into the 10 despite any lack of critical support (assuming the film is a mess). The “Blind Side Spot” if you will.
14 10-18-2010 at 4:13 pm
matsunaga said...
I doubt about the chances of “The Fighter”…
“Inception” is holding at the tenth spot for me…
15 10-18-2010 at 4:24 pm
Andrew M said...
Right now, I’m going back and forth on Rabbit Hole and Winters Bone. I don’t know, but I think Rabbit Hole could be a big surprise.
16 10-18-2010 at 5:00 pm
Duncan Houst said...
My opinion is old news at this point, but what I put down for Other: “Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows: Part 1″
17 10-18-2010 at 5:04 pm
Ed said...
My two others:
Matt Reeves’s : “Let Me In”
Alexander Payne’s : “The Descendants”
18 10-18-2010 at 5:28 pm
tony rock said...
Inception is in. Deal with it.
19 10-18-2010 at 5:50 pm
ann said...
Right on tony rock, i don’t understand why people are against inception getting nominated, i want the oscar to embrace more popular film, not exclude the public. And plus there is ten spots for a reason, so it deserves a spot as much as the others.
20 10-18-2010 at 6:15 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Ed: The Descendants is confirmed for 2011.
21 10-18-2010 at 6:27 pm
W.J. said...
127 Hours, Another Year, The Fighter, Hereafter, Inception, The Kids Are All Right, The Social Network, Toy Story 3, True Grit, Winter’s Bone
I’ve been feeling all along that The King’s Speech has no clothes. Carter and Rush may be good picks in the weak supporting fields. Firth’s a possibility, although he’s coming off a recent nod in a more competitive field. It looks like it’s trying too hard to be Oscar bait, and those kind of films (Memoirs of a Geisha, Dreamgirls, Invictus) sometimes miss completely even if they pick up multiple nominations elsewhere.
I think a lighter comedy/drama (Country Strong, How Do You Know, Love & Other Drugs) will make it in, but who knows which one–if any–will be the kind of populist champ that Oscar voters respond to.
22 10-18-2010 at 6:32 pm
Ángel Ramos said...
My predix:
1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. True Grit
4. Inception
5. 127 Hours
6. Toy Story 3
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. Another Year
9. Winter’s Bone
10. Black Swan
23 10-18-2010 at 7:45 pm
Derek B. said...
I went with pretty much the obvious, the top 9 on the poll as of right now, and swiveled between How Do You Know and For Colored Girls as my final choice, because I think something more unexpected could sweep in.
1. The Social Network
2. The King’s Speech
3. The Kids Are All Right
4. Inception
5. Toy Story 3
6. Another Year
7. True Grit
8. 127 Hours
9. Black Swan
10. How Do You Know
Close behind: For Colored Girls, The Town, Rabbit Hole
24 10-18-2010 at 9:15 pm
The Dude said...
I match up with Kris in everything except I have “Black Swan” in instead of “The Fighter.” I would love to see “Somewhere” nail a nomination (I’m a Coppola fans and early reviews suggest it’s my type of movie), but I don’t think it’ll happen sans some massive critical movement for the film.
25 10-18-2010 at 9:34 pm
Angry Shark said...
In order of most likely to get nominated:
1. Toy Story 3
2. The Social Network
3. The King’s Speech
4. 127 Hours
5. Inception
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. True Grit
8. Another Year
9. The Way Back
10. The Fighter
I think Black Swan may find love elsewhere, but come up short in Best Picture.
26 10-18-2010 at 10:59 pm
Michael Dalton said...
I predicted
127 Hours
Another Year
Black Swan
Inception
Toy Story 3
The Fighter
The Kids Are All Right
The Social Network
The Kings Speech
True Grit
Would love to see Shutter Island get in though
27 10-19-2010 at 4:58 am
Edwin Drood said...
alphabetical order:
127 Hours
Another Year
For Colored Girls
Inception
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
Love and Other Drugs
The Social Network
Toy Story 3
and either “The Fighter” or “Shutter Island”
28 10-19-2010 at 6:20 am
Mike_M said...
Didn’t put Black Swan or Shutter Island in, but would love for them both to be there… need to see how things are looking later on.
29 10-19-2010 at 7:08 am
Pete said...
Put it this way: I think Shutter Island would have difficult time getting in in the year of 15, let alone five or ten. Too many factors are against this happening.
My list (I feel pretty good about the first seven):
The Social Network
The King’s Speech
Toy Story 3
Inception
127 Hours
True Grit
Another Year
The Kids are Alright
Black Swan
The Way Back
The other five possibilities:
The Rabbit Hole, Winter’s Bone, Love & Other Drugs, The Town (before The Fighter), Made In Duggenhiem
30 10-19-2010 at 7:14 am
Sawyer said...
The Fighter seems like the kind of movie I will like, but the critics will punch holes through it. A lot like The Lovely Bones last year. I think Bale will receive most of the acclaim, like Tucci last year, and that will be it.
31 10-19-2010 at 9:51 am
Ivan said...
ANOTHER YEAR pic/supporting actress/o. screenplay
INCEPTION pic/director/cinematography/film editing/art direction/visual effects/sound mixing
THE KIDS ARE ALRIGHT pic/actress/actress/ o. screenplay
THE KING´S SPEECH pic/director/actor/supp. actor/supp. actress/o. screenplay/art direction/costume design/o. score
127 HOURS pic/actor/cinematography/film editing/sound mixing/sound editing
THE SOCIAL NETWORK pic/director/actor/supporting actor/adapted screenplay/film editing
TOY STORY 3 pic/adapted screenplay/animated feature/o. song/sound editing
TRUE GRIT pic/directors/adapted screenplay/cinematography/film editing/art direction/costume design
THE WAY BACK pic/director/supporting actor/adapted screenplay/cinematography/film editing/sound mixing/o. score
WINTER´S BONE pic/actress/adapted screenplay
32 10-19-2010 at 11:11 am
Cameron said...
BEST PICTURE:
1. The Social Network
2. True Grit
3. The King’s Speech
4. Inception
5. Toy Story 3
6. 127 Hours
7. Another Year
8. Black Swan
9. The Kids Are Alright
10. The Way Back
33 10-19-2010 at 12:33 pm
Pepe said...
Never Let Me Go is not on the list
34 10-19-2010 at 12:48 pm
THE Diego Ortiz said...
ORDER BASESD ON CURRENT POLL PERCENTAGES
Social Network (for the kids)
King’s Speech (cause it’s british)
Inception (for the snub)
Toy Story (cause it’s pixar)
127 Hours (it just is)
True Grit (cause it’s coens)
Kids Are Alright (indy comedy slot)
Fighter (cause it’s boxing)
Colored Girls (it’s racist if it’s not nominated)
Shutter Island (martin and leo sitting in a tree…)
35 10-19-2010 at 12:51 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Pete: What factors? There is only one: lack of critical approval. That’s not “too many factors.”
36 10-19-2010 at 1:04 pm
Red said...
Pretty much the same as you have on the sidebar, except I have “Made in Dagenham” and “Winter’s Bone” instead of “The Kids Are All Right” and “The Fighter”.
37 10-19-2010 at 1:24 pm
Pete said...
Tapley, lack of criticial acclaim is the big one but there are other ones I can name:
I’d say that an early release date can genuinly count as a big factor in the race too. I don’t think you can argue with that. (Here I am tempted to bring up the fact that the movie’s original release date got moved and how to me it signaled that the studio itself viewed (correctly, I might add) “Shutter Island” as more of a commercial movie than an Oscar movie but this is a sore point for some and I don’t want to be occused of overanalyzing things).
In addition, there’s my subjective notion that Scorsese, having won an Oscar is no longer looked at as the overdue director he’s been considered for so much of the last couple of decades. As the result he might no longer be given as much slack by the voters. And to put it bluntly, Scorsese’s latest might be the victim of not measuring up with his previous. And as Eastwood has proven recently, even esteemed directors who seem to have a hot Oscar streak are not automatically guaranteed another nomination.
I can continue. Scorsese’s most visible star DiCaprio has had a far bigger success in another movie, and with a character thats while different also shares certain similarities. Again, the movie will not benefit from such comparisons.
Moreover, in a year of Black Swan and Inception, I really don’t think there is much of a room for a weaker contender for a brilliant “weird movie slot”.
There is more I can say but I think this should be enough. You may not fully agree with all of my points but it should be clear that I try to choose words with care when I used plural “factors” I meant just that. And in a thread that asks for user input that should be good enough.
38 10-19-2010 at 3:23 pm
Matthew Starr said...
Anchor Bay is showing City Island as part of the Variety series for guild members in LA and NY. Is that movie supposed to be a contender?
39 10-19-2010 at 3:28 pm
Matthew Starr said...
By the way. Jacki Weaver’s face is totally dominating this site right now.
Hopefully FS, Roadside and Lionsgate start advertising/promoting Natalie Portman, Jennifer Lawrence and Nicole Kidman ten fold.
40 10-19-2010 at 5:17 pm
Jeremy said...
1.The Social Network
2.The King’s Speech
3.127 Hours
4.True Grit
5.Toy Story 3
6.The Kids Are All Right
7.Another Year
8.The Way Back
9.Inception
10.Black Swan
I would love to see Winter’s Bone make it!
I’m not sure about The Fighter. It looks really good, and with amazing performances. But, i don’t think it will be nominated for Best Picture. I think it will only get acting nominations… And, from the look of the trailer, Melissa Leo and Christian Bale look amazing in it!
41 10-20-2010 at 5:58 am
Thomas Sentina said...
- The King’s Speech
- The Social Network
- The Kids Are Alright
- Toy Story 3
- Black Swan
- Fair Game
- For Colored Girls
- 127 Hours
- Inception
- The Way Back
42 10-20-2010 at 9:23 am
KB said...
1. The King’s Speech
2. The Social Network
3. 127 Hours
4. Toy Story 3
5. Black Swan
6. The Kids Are All Right
7. True Grit
8. Inception
9. Another Year
10. The Fighter
43 10-20-2010 at 12:05 pm
Laurie Buffington said...
My predictions
Toy Story 3
Inception
The Social Network
The Kids Are All Right
The King’s Speech
127 Hours
The Fighter
Another Year
Black Swan
True Grit
44 10-20-2010 at 10:59 pm
Shaun Ellis said...
No one’s mentioned I Love You Phillip Morris, to be released Dec 3, which I saw and loved at Melbourne Film Festival. I think this list of paint-by-numbers dramatic shoo-ins could well make room for a breath of fresh air like ILYPM – in director, actor and sup actor too. So, with this long-shot in, we have:
1. I Love You Phillip Morris
2. The Social Network
3. The King’s Speech
4. True Grit
5. Inception
6. 127 Hours
7. The Kids Are All Right
8. Made in Dahenham
9. Never Let Me Go
10. Black Swan
King’s Speech might be too plaid but I’ll still put it in lieu of Winter’s Bone for now. Reckon Dagenham will trump Another Year – Hollywood never seems to actually understand Mike Leigh.
45 10-21-2010 at 11:27 am
Dillon said...
The Ghost Writer as my other…
46 10-23-2010 at 3:31 pm
mikhael said...
never let me go.
47 10-26-2010 at 7:07 am
SilverHollywood said...
My predictions Best Pictures race 2010 are:
1.Get Low.
2.Conviction.
3.Black Swan.
4.The Fighter.
5.The King’s Speech.
6.Inception.
7.The Social Network.
8.The Kids Are Allrightc.
9.127 Hours.
10.Toy Story 3.
48 10-26-2010 at 7:27 am
SilverHollywood said...
UPS!!I forgot to put in my list the magnificent Shutter Island!!
49 10-27-2010 at 7:49 pm
Sean D said...
People are racist here who are suggesting that ‘For Colored Girls’ is going to get nominated on some sort of white liberal guilt/political correctness bandwagon. A black person can make a movie and have it just be a movie, okay? Not everyone puts films by black directors instantly in another category of charity cases or affirmative action.
I for the record, am excited to see the film due to the strength of its cast and excellent source material. I have never seen anything by Tyler Perry in the past, and have never felt the need to since all have been slaughtered by critics and have looked trite and unappetizing.
50 12-28-2010 at 1:33 pm
jk said...
1. The Kings Speech
2. the social network
3. Black Swan
4. The Fighter
5. Inception
6. 127 hours
7. toy story 3
8. the kids are alright
9. Shutter Island
10. Another Year
thats what it should be
51 12-28-2010 at 1:42 pm
Maxim said...
“UPS!!I forgot to put in my list the magnificent Shutter Island!!”
Very telling.