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It’s been three weeks since I took note of the season’s course in this space, and really, there has been no need to put our finger to the wind until last week. And frankly, an author making an ass out of himself in public and Harvey Weinstein sooth-saying anyone who would listen (while an array of fluff pieces on Quentin Tarantino buying the New Beverly hit, a year after it happened) made for little more than an opportunity to fill column inches as we all continue to tread water.
Meanwhile, “The Hurt Locker” has taken the four guilds that truly count, putting it on course for the inevitable. Some are trying to spin the preferential ballot as a non-issue, but that’s just they’re own way of saying they have nothing to write about. And “Avatar” keeps making money.
I’m frankly more interested in the fact that, as Martin Scorsese’s finest film since “Goodfellas” made its way to screens over the weekend, smart critics all over the country somehow turned off their analytical switch to complain about score volume and heavy-handed stylization, completely failing to realize the inherent necessity of the film’s construction and mise-en-scène in the participatory narrative Scorsese laid out.
But I’ll save all that for roughly a year hence, when I’ll inevitably be swimming upstream for yet another misunderstood masterstroke from a popular filmmaker many think has received his share of passes. There is an Oscar season still to cover, after all.
And what a long-winded season it has been — and continues to be. We sit two weeks out and I already feel like the telecast is tardy. And the conclusion has felt a bit foregone for a few weeks now.
Most pundits are having their “Eureka!” moment with “The Hurt Locker”‘s BAFTA dominance over the weekend. But things have really been settled since the PGA awards proved the preferential ballot worked in its favor with a group more often given to the intersection of art and commerce on a standard passion/one-vote ballot. That’s a bingo.
Otherwise, there is plenty to bemoan about the creative direction of the show, though no one is really writing about the two producers being at each other’s throats. I’ll leave it to the industrious. I just want to be a fan here, and dammit, I’m having a hard time of it. “Dread” is the best word to describe my feelings toward the forthcoming festivities, but I’ll try to keep an open mind.
Will there be excitement? Some of the crafts races are certainly neck and neck, but that’s not sexy enough for mainstream media headlines. Seven of the eight major categories appear sewn up. And I shouldn’t even be hesitating on calling it for original screenplay, too, since most of the “Inglourious Basterds” support comes from a place of fandom (the Academy at large likes the movie, but isn’t really taking it seriously). And the last week of tub-thumping on its behalf has rubbed more than a few the wrong way, Mark Boal gaining supporters by the day.
The lead actress race? Plenty want to pump intrigue into that one with this notion or that, but the truth is, a BAFTA win for Meryl Streep would have been an indication that there was a good chunk of support for her. But there just isn’t, and not because she didn’t give a wonderful performance. She’s taken for granted and Sony didn’t hit the pavement hard on her behalf during phase two. Meanwhile, Sandra Bullock has a full head of steam and a studio footing a decent bill. Call it.
Are we ready to start talking Aronofsky, Coens, Corbijn, Garcia, Goldwyn, Greengrass, Iñárritu, Liman, Macdonald, Polanski, Russell, Wallace and, frankly, a season that looks to be even weaker than 2008 yet? Getting there.
In the meantime, let’s steel ourselves for one more week of the media spinning its wheels looking for a fresh angle on matters. I can’t even get this column to 800 words anymore. Most ballots are likely in by now (one major studio has already allowed its phase two campaign to run its course), but they aren’t officially due for another eight days. Then, the great settling, as we’ll have one more week of one of the longest holding patterns in a season that I can recall.
And no, I’m not bitter about it. Dry humping is fun, but pointless. You know?
60 responses so far
1 2-22-2010 at 10:21 am
JJ said...
I still just can’t shake the feeling that while Sandra was very good, and obviously has the buzz, that Meryl will win anway; a la Geraldine Page (though she WAS superb).
Precursor wins, BFCA win (tie), Golden Globe win (tie), tons of sympathy votes for last year, no less the last 28 years or so since her last win.
I think that SAG gave it to Sandra because Meryl won it last year, and I bet it was close.
I think that a lot of people want to give it to Meryl a) for a surprise on Oscar night, and b) to shut people up. i.e., giving Kate her win – not just because she was great, but because she was overdue, and to shut people up.
Though The Blind Side made it into the 10th spot as a surprise, I think Julie & Julia was somewhere in the 11-13 anyway (with Star Trek & Invictus).
I think a lot of Academy voters will vote for Meryl because she was great in the role, she’s overdue (in my opinion), and I just think that she is well loved. Cherished. Always nominated. I think her time is coming for another win, and it may be in less than 2 weeks.
My brain tells my Sandra. And I love her so that’s fine. But my heart is telling me it will be Meryl.
2 2-22-2010 at 10:22 am
BigMoffitt17 said...
“Meanwhile, “The Hurt Locker” has swept all four major guild awards, putting it on course for the inevitable.”
Didn’t Inglourious Basterds win Best Ensemble at the SAG Awards? Not that that means Inglourious Basterds is going to beat The Hurt Locker…
3 2-22-2010 at 10:25 am
JJ said...
And though SAG went for Sandra, a much smaller, concentrated portion will be voting in AMPAS, correct?
Furthermore, people try to draw parallels btwn. Sandra & Julia Roberts. Julia had been nominated before TWICE before her win. Sandra had never been nominated before this year, and assumably never even made it close, either.
I will be happy for whoever wins. Really, and truly. I just don’t think it’s set in stone, at all.
4 2-22-2010 at 10:31 am
Casey Fiore said...
I just can’t come to grip with the fact that Sandra Bullock is the favorite for an actual Academy Award. I’d far rather hold out a shred of hope that Meryl can pull something off
5 2-22-2010 at 10:32 am
med said...
I can’t shake the feeling that Meryl will get “old hollywood” academy votes and because they are so passionate about Streep. This race is getting closer by the day and the Academy hopefully will not feed into the media and pundit crowning of Bullock and give the gold to the better performance of Streep…
6 2-22-2010 at 10:41 am
seren said...
I expect un upset at the Best Actress race. Now that Carrey Mulligan won the BAFTA, maybe she could be a surpise if the votes split between Meryl Streep and Sandra Bullock. I just feel Sandra’s momentum has faded really, and with all those ugly backlashes, the Academy may have worried about keeping their reputation, if they ever have one.
I adore both Sandra and Meryl, but I don’t think Sandra’s performance was better than Meryl’s. I feel very wrong if Sandra won, and it wouldn’t be good for her imo. But what I know anyway.
7 2-22-2010 at 10:41 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
BigMoffitt: Indeed, I meant to indicate the ACE, which in tandem with wins with PGA, DGA and WGA makes for a Best Picture winner 100% of the time.
Poor word choice.
8 2-22-2010 at 10:42 am
Silencio said...
Yeah, Harvey’s mouth did not help this time. At least it feels that way.
9 2-22-2010 at 10:44 am
Matthew Starr said...
I can’t believe you loved Shutter Island that much Kris. A masterstroke? His best since GoodFellas?
I don’t even like it more than Casino let alone The Aviator and The Departed.
10 2-22-2010 at 10:45 am
Pam said...
I know it’s just one and probably doesn’t mean much for the big picture, but is the SAG not a major guild?
11 2-22-2010 at 11:01 am
Rob said...
Anyone think if vote-splitting happens, Gabby Sidibe might surprise? Girl’s been showing up everywhere and charming the shit out of people.
12 2-22-2010 at 11:13 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
Pam: Sure it’s a major guild, but there are plenty more examples of the ensemble winner not going on to take the Oscar than there are of a film winning PGA, WGA, DGA and ACE and then missing.
13 2-22-2010 at 11:14 am
Kristopher Tapley said...
Matthew: Misunderstood. I’m at peace with it.
14 2-22-2010 at 11:22 am
Leighton said...
I just want one big surprise, that’s all. One big one that we can go “wow” at.
15 2-22-2010 at 11:36 am
N8 said...
You really fell hard for “Shutter Island”? I though the first two acts were dodgy, but the third was brilliant. Maybe I need to watch it again.
I wonder if Robert Richardson would be a double nominee this year if “Shutter Island” had kept its original release date. His cinematography tops nearly every other movie from 2009.
16 2-22-2010 at 11:38 am
JJ said...
For me, like Kris, Shutter Island is a near-brilliant work that is Marty’s best since Goodfellas.
I just have so much excitement thinking back on it, and telling people, without giving anything away of course. I’ve recommended it to so many, but then have a hard time saying why, haha.
It IS the kind of movie, though, where if you make up your mind “during” the movie that it stinks, even if you’re redeemed by the end and how it comes together, then it’s a totally different story than if you’re taken with it early on and are aboard for the whole ride.
It’s a patience-is-rewarded type. And if you’re not up for that or into it, then you probably won’t like it much.
17 2-22-2010 at 11:38 am
Jonathan Spuij said...
One big surprise: Mo’Nique not winning. It’s the only possible major-category shocker.
18 2-22-2010 at 11:47 am
Guy Lodge said...
I’d say that’s one of the least possible surprises, Jonathan.
19 2-22-2010 at 11:50 am
Bia said...
I felt Meryl had a better chance last year since Doubt was very showy and dramatic. It seemed like she was picking up more steam…
20 2-22-2010 at 12:06 pm
Robert Hamer said...
After seeing Nick Davis’ scathing review on his blog, it’d be interesting to see an opposing op-ed from you about Shutter Island, Kris. I haven’t seen it yet (was busy with a term paper last weekend), but it’s looking like Scorsese’s most divisive film yet.
I’m like a dartboard player when it comes to your minority opinions. We were refreshingly eye-to-eye on Inglourious Basterds, but you also declared The Lovely Bones to be a “misunderstood masterpiece,” and that movie was Horrible with a capital “H.” Guess I’ll just have to see it myself and see!
21 2-22-2010 at 12:08 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
We see eye-to-eye on Basterds? Where have you been all season?! ;)
22 2-22-2010 at 12:10 pm
Amir said...
well, Kris, obviously when you don’t mention Malick’s name, the next year’s race looks dull.
Are you really not excited for ‘The Tree of Life”?
23 2-22-2010 at 12:21 pm
average joe said...
Kris,
Totally agree with you. So many critics seemed to have missed the boat (or should I say ferry) on Shutter Island; AO Scott being possibly the worst offender. Reminds me of the stuffy old critics that Cahiers de Cinema had to take to task back in the 50s.
But then again, subjectivity is part of the beauty of cinema. Though like you I wish there was more thought behind the criticisms.
24 2-22-2010 at 12:23 pm
average joe said...
Back to the Oscars, the last few best director choices have been pretty fantastic I think, starting with Scorsese, then the Coens, and then Boyle. Looks like this year the trend will continue with Bigelow. Can’t wait to see her receive the statuette.
25 2-22-2010 at 12:36 pm
Paul Outlaw said...
If Streep loses (to Bullock), it will be due first and foremost to the Kitty Foyle factor; moreover, whether consciously or not, many people think of her performance as a “co”-lead (i.e., kinda supporting) and Bullock’s as a “real” lead; and as usual, Streep is competing against herself in Sophie’s Choice and not against the other four nominees this year.
26 2-22-2010 at 12:38 pm
/3rtfu11 said...
Kris have you seen Inglourious Basterds again since the first time you saw it?
27 2-22-2010 at 12:40 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
Yes.
28 2-22-2010 at 12:44 pm
moviefan said...
I haven’t seen Shutter Island yet, I’ve been laid up all weekend with food poisoning..shudder. However, I will be seeing it as soon as I can.
I’ve read the book so no big surprises for me but I’m still very much looking forward to it. When I first heard Scorsese was doing it I was happy about that, I could only be happier if it were Russell Crowe as Teddy, he’s who I envisioned while reading the book. I like Leo, though, and from the trailers I’ve seen (4397 times it seems) he’s done a fine job.
I’ll be interested to see if I agree with Kris about it’s Oscar-worthiness next year, I wasn’t thinking that with the book or feeling that from the trailers. We’ll see.
I also just want to say, Kris, that your site is one of the most enjoyable that I read and your writing gets better all the time. Kudos to you and the other gents and thanks.
29 2-22-2010 at 12:44 pm
SHAAAARK said...
Yeah, I’m ready to talk about next year! And, you forgot Redford, Nolan, Cholodenko, Affleck, Baumbach, and a few others.
Inception will get nominated as a make-up for TDK missing out! And will be the first scifi-ish movie to win Best Picture! /wishful thinking
30 2-22-2010 at 12:52 pm
chris said...
Hey Kris,
I have a question for you, what performance out of all the ones nominated in best actress was your absolute favorite.
31 2-22-2010 at 12:59 pm
Fitz said...
I’d love to see Inception nominated for Best Picture (extremely doable with 10 noms) but more importantly Nolan for Best Director.
32 2-22-2010 at 1:21 pm
Matthew Starr said...
Chris: I think Kris chose Gabby Sidibe as the best female performance of the year.
33 2-22-2010 at 1:45 pm
kid said...
I think next year will be much better then 2008.
A few other you forgot to mention which haven’t already been said… Weir, Schnabel, Fincher, Eastwood, Cameron Mitchell, Robinson, Coppola, Romanek, Scott, and hopefully if the academy likes it as much as I do, then Shutter Island. Don’t you think any of these have a chance?
34 2-22-2010 at 2:06 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
I didn’t “forget” anyone, I just figured it would be silly to be complete in this space.
35 2-22-2010 at 2:07 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
And thank you, moviefan.
36 2-22-2010 at 2:10 pm
yogsam said...
So, another boring year with a pathetic telecast?? count me OUT
37 2-22-2010 at 2:10 pm
yogsam said...
*Last year’s oscar where really good by the way, the race itself was boring as it is now
38 2-22-2010 at 2:11 pm
yogsam said...
*Oscar’s Telecast, that was good
Sorry about the mistakes here
39 2-22-2010 at 2:33 pm
AmericanRequiem said...
pretty much aggreed on all fronts, shuuter island=masterpiece
but kris please dont get down on next season already, we have shutter island, true grit has me interested, black swan could be great. did you know about slumdog millionaire this early in the year when it eventually won best picture?
40 2-22-2010 at 2:33 pm
billybil said...
I thought DiCaprio was AMAZING in Shutter Island – but then I thought he was almsot as AMAZING in Revolutionary Road and no one seemed to notice. He’s just turned into such a “man” on screen which I honestly wasn’t sure was gonna happen.
41 2-22-2010 at 2:42 pm
The InSneider said...
Shutter Island over Casino? Kris, I’m giving you a nougie the next time I see you!
42 2-22-2010 at 3:38 pm
Kristopher Tapley said...
There is virtually nothing in Casino that we didn’t see in Goodfellas.
43 2-22-2010 at 3:43 pm
JJ said...
For me, Scorsese’s best have been (in no particular order) Goodfellas, Casino, The Aviator, and now Shutter Island.
44 2-22-2010 at 4:06 pm
Robert Hamer said...
Yeah, you don’t remember? It was sort of the endnote to our fight that started when I was getting annoyed at the incessant negative articles you kept posting about Quentin Tarantino leading up to the release of Inglourious Basterds. We decided to just drop the matter literally an hour before I went to see it.
45 2-22-2010 at 4:08 pm
Robert Hamer said...
Needless to say, I came back three hours later with not-so-nice things to say about it. I’m surprised you don’t remember.
46 2-22-2010 at 4:08 pm
caleb roth said...
And, of course, Scorsese started his career in 1990.
47 2-22-2010 at 5:18 pm
JJ said...
Though my favorites are Goodfellas, Casino, The Aviator, & Shutter Island …
I also really liked Last Temptation of Christ, The Color of Money, Raging Bull, Age of Innocence, Cape Fear, & King of Comedy.
Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore was ok; as was The Departed, Gangs of New York, After Hours, and Kundun.
And I was never that crazy about Mean Streets, Taxi Driver (DeNiro was good, movie bored me), Bringing Out the Dead, or New York, New York.
So while I’ve really liked/loved a big handful of Scorsese flicks … yes, my faves of his were post-1990.
48 2-22-2010 at 8:31 pm
Paul Outlaw said...
An old school fan’s Top 10:
Taxi Driver (1976)
Raging Bull (1980)
New York, New York (1977)*
The Last Waltz (1978)
Goodfellas (1990)
Mean Streets (1973)
Alice Doesn’t Live Here Anymore (1974)
The Age of Innocence (1993)
Cape Fear (1991)
The King of Comedy (1982)
* the full-length version
49 2-22-2010 at 8:49 pm
Kevin said...
Yeah, this is becoming a boring season after such an exciting and unpredictable Phase 1.
On the subject of Shutter Island, you may be on to something there when you say that it’s Scorsese’s finest film since Goodfellas. I’d probably have to agree with you on all accounts regarding this film. Any chance we’ll get a full review sometime soon Kris?
50 2-23-2010 at 2:04 am
Guy Lodge said...
Kevin: We only review films once (and before their US release), so unfortunately for the fans, I got there first:
http://incontention.com/?p=22569
51 2-23-2010 at 3:01 am
colby said...
I’m calling it a split year. Bigelow gets director, Basterds gets Picture.
I’m not a Tarantino die-hard, but Basterds is a masterwork, a perfect storm in every since. It deserves more than it will win.
Hurt Locker was good. It was not a Best Picture.
52 2-23-2010 at 7:42 am
evelyn garver said...
Kris, I’m with you and Glenn Kenney about SHUTTER island. You two wrote the most thoughtful assessments. I am troubled by critics who feel they must review Scorsese’s entire career and not the film at hand as well as those who go into the review with a bias against DICaprio beacuse he is not DeNiro. No artist can keep remaking the breakthrough movies of his younger days. No artist would want to.
53 2-23-2010 at 10:53 pm
Shocker said...
@ Colby. Split year? In what fantasy reality? The Hurt Locker took PGA, DGA, WGA, ACE, BAFTA, and most of the critics awards. It’s rediculous to think that a picture that won none of those precursors would suddenly win best picture, whether that is Avatar or Basterds. I know it is boring for their to be a clean, clear best picture of the year, but The Hurt Locker is that film because… (shocker) it is the best picture. Wow, hard to believe it comes down to something so honest. No James Cameron explanations needed. No Harvey Weinstein campaigning necessary. What a thing to celebrate!
54 2-24-2010 at 2:08 am
colby said...
Shocker. It’s just what I’m calling it. I won’t argue that it doesn’t LOOK like Hurt Locker has it in the bag. I’m just saying, my gut says to call it this way. I had the same instinct the year Crash won, and that worked out for me. I go with my gut. And my gut says the preferential voting is going to play to Basterds favor. It won’t be a landslide, no doubt. My gut also says that Basterds is the Best Picture nominated. Hurt Locker was a good film. Not the best.
55 2-24-2010 at 2:59 am
Robert Hamer said...
Colby, are you *sure* that your prediction is not based solely on your personal affection for Inglourious Basterds?
Look, I completely understand where you’re coming from. We all at some point think that our favorite film of the year will pull off some sort of upset and be crowned Best Picture, because it seems so obvious that it is.
But just look at it. When has Oscar ever gone for anything even approaching bloody, pulpy, irreverent, “in-your-face” filmmaking? Hell, it’s lucky to have come THIS far in the race.
I’ll admit personal bias. I genuinely believe that The Hurt Locker is the best film of 2010. Not just of the nominees. The best period. But I also see the writing on the wall, and every critics award, every major precursor besides SAG, and visible momentum points to The Hurt Locker taking this one in a boring but oh so satisfying (for me at least) race.
True, Brokeback Mountain had similar inevitability (and bigger box office success) and it ended up losing. But look at the vicious backlash AMPAS got after that upset. Even if a plurality of voters agree with you about Basterds (and I seriously doubt that), I don’t think they would want to be accused of sexism just four years after being accused of homophobia.
56 2-24-2010 at 3:01 am
Robert Hamer said...
Excuse me, I genuinely believe The Hurt Locker is best film of **2009**. Damn you, insomnia!
57 2-24-2010 at 4:09 am
Andrew2 said...
Shutter Island is a great film, and worthy of a BP nom I reckon
58 2-24-2010 at 9:03 am
colby said...
Robert…I’m sure it’s not only wishful thinking on my part because it’s not my favorite film of the year. I do believe it’s the best out of the nominees, though. When Crash won, I was pulling for Good Night and Good Luck, I had no special feelings for Crash, except that it was going to steal it.
I believe we could see Inglorious Basterds win because I think the Academy will want to honor both Bigelow and Tarantino, and this will be the way to do it.
We all know that the academy splits every couple of years. It’s habit for them. My gut says this year is one of them. It hasn’t happened SINCE Crash. It’s due.
And again, I think most people are really underestimating the power of the preferential system. I believe it will work in Basterds favor.
But don’t get me wrong. I liked Hurt Locker. If it wins, I won’t be upset. As long as Avatar is nowhere near that statue, really.
59 2-24-2010 at 9:26 am
average joe said...
Colby,
What other awards can you see Basterds winning in addition to picture? I think it would definitely have to win original screenplay in order to win picture. At the moment, I’m predicting it to win screenplay but lose picture to The Hurt Locker. If it loses screenplay to Hurt Locker earlier in the evening, you can pretty much count out Basterds.
60 2-24-2010 at 11:17 am
colby said...
joe,
i agree with you. i’m counting on Basterds getting screenplay.
on top of that, supporting actor, obviously. and then i’m calling cinematography and editing.