BAFTA predictions

Posted by · 6:35 pm · February 20th, 2010

Carey Mulligan in An EducationEnjoying a curious position this year as the only televised awards ceremony between the Academy Award nominations announcement and Oscar night itself, the BAFTAs will no doubt be relishing their precursor status even more than usual.

Since they made the move to precede the Oscars nine years ago, BAFTA hasn’t slavishly anticipated the bigger awards (they’ve matched the Academy’s Best Picture pick only three times), but they have sometimes been at the crest of new waves in voting: late surges of momentum for the likes of Marion Cotillard, Tilda Swinton and Alan Arkin all made their first appearance on BAFTA night.

This year, however, I’m suspecting that the Brits will voluntarily isolate themselves from the Oscar-influencing game. Never ones to shy away from patriotic voting, BAFTA has handed its top prize to a homegrown production for three years running – it’s highly likely that Oscar longshot “An Education,” which leads the nomination count with two U.S. productions, will make it four.

Of its rivals, look for “The Hurt Locker” to upset more than “Avatar”: critics are as keen here on Kathryn Bigelow’s Iraq drama as they are Stateside, and it’s hard to imagine female rival Lone Scherfig standing in the way of Bigelow’s Best Director steamroll. James Cameron, meanwhile, should be haunted by memories of “Titanic” going 0-for-10 back in the 1997 race; BAFTA is often wary of Hollywood blockbusters with no vested British interest.

If “The Hurt Locker” does pip the local favorite to the top prize — as it well might — that would likely affect the outcome of Best British Film, in many ways the night’s most intriguing race. Determined by a smaller committee, this category can be relied upon to celebrate the underdog; no film has ever taken this prize in addition to the Best Film award.

Assuming “An Education” takes the latter, that leaves the ghetto category a tight contest between two multi-laurelled indies: I solve the coin-toss between “Fish Tank” and “Moon” (the more logical pick, given its strong showing in the BAFTA longlists) only by guessing that Duncan Jones will be appeased with the Carl Foreman Award. This could go any way.

As for the acting races, three of them seem set in stone to me: there’s no competition strong enough to stop the Christoph Waltz and Mo’Nique avalanche, and given the heat for her film, hometown girl Carey Mulligan shouldn’t have too much trouble seeing off Meryl Streep. (Oscar frontrunner Sandra Bullock, of course, is ineligible here.)

Best Actor, however, is a more intriguing puzzle: if BAFTA voters really are keen to emulate their cousins across the pond, they’ll check off Jeff Bridges’ name, but “Crazy Heart” isn’t the most visible title in these parts, and Bridges is more of an American treasure. (Pete Hammond is arguing that voters might be frightened off by the country music, but that didn’t hurt Reese Witherspoon.) The beneficiary would be Colin Firth, whose film may have only a week’s jump on Bridges’ in the UK, but is a well-loved local stalwart; I’m guessing the Limeys keep it cosy.

A crucial thing to bear in mind: unlike at the Oscars, branch voting determines the winners in all but the acting and assorted Best Film categories. This can often lead to idiosyncratic picks, particularly in the technical categories – last year, however, they hewed unusually close to the status quo. It’s anyone’s guess.

Full list of nominees here. My predictions (and preferences) below. What are yours?

Best Film
Will win: “An Education”
Should win: “The Hurt Locker”

Best British Film
Will and should win: “Fish Tank”

Best Director
Will and should win: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”

Best Actor
Will win: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
Should win: Jeremy Renner, “The Hurt Locker”

Best Actress
Will and should win: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”

Best Supporting Actor
Will and should win: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Supporting Actress
Will win: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Should win: Kristin Scott Thomas, “Nowhere Boy”

Best Original Screenplay
Will win: “Inglourious Basterds”
Should win: “A Serious Man”

Best Adapted Screenplay
Will and should win: “In the Loop”

Best Foreign Language Film
Will and should win: “A Prophet”

Best Animated Film
Will win: “Up”
Should win: “Coraline”

Best Cinematography
Will and should win: “The Hurt Locker”

Best Art Direction
Will win: “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”
Should win: “District 9”

Best Costume Design
Will win: “Coco Before Chanel”
Should win: “Bright Star”

Best Film Editing
Will and should win: “The Hurt Locker”

Best Makeup and Hair
Will win: “The Young Victoria”
Should win: “The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus”

Best Music
Will win: “Up”
Should win: “Crazy Heart”

Best Sound
Will win: “Avatar”
Should win: “The Hurt Locker”

Best Visual Effects
Will and should win: “Avatar”

Carl Foreman Award (Best Debut by a British Writer, Director or Producer)
Will and should win: Duncan Jones, “Moon”

Rising Star Award
Will win: Kristen Stewart
Should win:
Tahar Rahim

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31 responses so far

  • 1 2-20-2010 at 7:04 pm

    Bryan said...

    I’ve been wondering about Coco Avant Chanel upsetting The Young Victoria at the Oscars. It’s a movie about a famous fashion designer and seems to be liked at least, and Powell has won twice already…

    Just a thought. I just wonder about the hoopskirts winning four years in a row.

    A win at Bafta could help it along.

  • 2 2-20-2010 at 7:11 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    Yeah, I love Sandy Powell and all, but if “The Young Victoria” takes the Oscar, the Academy ought to think about dissolving this category. Or adding an extra award for Best Non-Nobility Costume Design.

  • 3 2-20-2010 at 7:16 pm

    Jim T said...

    I think The Hurt Locker will win. An Education just doesn’t seem as strong as Atonement. The Slumdog win of course needs no analysis. In the case of the Queen, well, the Departed was not as strong as the Hurt Locker.

    And why are you so awfully pessimistic about Rising Star Award? Kristen Stewart? To be honest, you might be right.

  • 4 2-20-2010 at 7:20 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    The Rising Star award is voted on by the public, Jim.

  • 5 2-20-2010 at 7:32 pm

    Jim T said...

    Oh, sorry. At least it’s called Rising Star, not Rising Actor :p

  • 6 2-20-2010 at 8:53 pm

    Murtada said...

    Whatever! Im not going to take anything you say from now on seriously. There is no better performance on film this year than Mo’Nique in Precious. It was the best performance and deserving of all accolades. The fact that you can’t see that will make me disregard all our opinions.

  • 7 2-20-2010 at 9:50 pm

    RandomThoughts said...

    When did Mo’Nique giving the best performance in a film become a fact? Ridiculous.

    Anyways, I agree with everything except I don’t believe “An Education” is quite potent enough to win Best Film.

  • 8 2-20-2010 at 10:15 pm

    Al said...

    Film – An Education
    British Film – Moon
    Director – Bigelow
    Screenplay – Basterds

  • 9 2-20-2010 at 11:21 pm

    AmericanRequiem said...

    no no, hurt locker will win film here, an education is no atonement id say

  • 10 2-20-2010 at 11:27 pm

    red_wine said...

    Me too. While a nice little movie, An Education is extremely slight, literally wafer thin. And Baftas plunge for Brit films that make Oscars’ op 5 and we all know that An Education barely even made the 10.

    Atonement, while not a fan of the movie by any means, had slightly more credibility, it having won the globe and stuff. The Queen had a lot of credibility so no beef there. Slumdog won everything under the sun.

    Great as Carey Mulligan is, I find it absurd that the Brits prefer her to Jarvis. And I want In The Loop to win Best British Film, I love Fish Tank too and it will be the proper ‘more serious’ winner, but I just adore In The Loop.

    How I wish it would win screenplay at the Oscars over up In The Air. But that is so not happening, they want to reward their own young home0grown son, Reitman.

  • 11 2-20-2010 at 11:33 pm

    red_wine said...

    And On The Monique thing, an extremely deserving winner on all accounts, I wont even have a sliver of disappointment if she won but at the same time I don’t actively love her performance and if I were to make a list of my favorite performances from 2009, I would never mention her.

    People go to such unimaginable levels of group-think.

  • 12 2-20-2010 at 11:44 pm

    Me. said...

    I say Hurt Locker takes this one. An Education and Inglourious Basterds are spoilers.

  • 13 2-20-2010 at 11:49 pm

    Glenn said...

    lol @ murtado. What an idiot.

    In regards to costume design, I’m actually thinking of predicting “Coco Before Chanel” for the Oscar because year in year out I hope that the voters stop just giving the award to the British period movie (the “Marie Antoinette” win notwithstanding) and because for those who haven’t seen all the nominees – i’m sure there are more than a few – “Coco” has the advantage of have Coco Chanel in the title. People who haven’t seen “Bright Star” or “Parnassus” probably won’t be able to glimmer much out those costumes from the press material alone.

  • 14 2-21-2010 at 1:44 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Naturally, when I state a slight preference for one performance, that means I vociferously hate the other four nominees. I’m glad some of you get that.

  • 15 2-21-2010 at 4:37 am

    Nel said...

    I think the Hurt Locker will win and an Education will take best British Movie, which is a shame for Fish Tank. The best British Movie of 2009 imho.

  • 16 2-21-2010 at 4:46 am

    Nel said...

    I would also say Jeff Bridges for best Actor, just for sentiment.
    But Guy is probably right that it will be a double British win.

  • 17 2-21-2010 at 7:12 am

    Ali E. said...

    The Hurt Locker will probably win both Picture and Director. An Education doesn’t have that kinda enthusiastic support, and will probably end up with just a couple of awards. I say, Best Actress and Costume Design (don’t forget that Vera Drake won here against The Aviator, Finding Neverland and House of Flying Daggers).

  • 18 2-21-2010 at 7:19 am

    Ali E. said...

    my predictions:
    Best Film: The Hurt Locker
    Outstanding British Film: Nowhere Boy (Alt.: Fish Tank)
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker
    Best Leading Actor: Colin Firth, A Single Man (Alt.: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart)
    Best Leading Actress: Carey Mulligan, An Education
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, Precious (Alt.: Kristen Scott Thomas, Nowhere Boy)
    Best Original Screenplay: Up (Alt.: Inglourious Basterds)
    Best Adapted Screenplay: In the Loop
    Best Film Not in the English Language: A Prophet
    Best Animated Film: Up
    Best Music: Crazy Heart (Alt.: Sex & Drugs & Rock & Roll)
    Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
    Best Production Design: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus
    Best Costume Design: An Education (Alt.: Bright Star)
    Best Makeup & Hair: The Imaginarium of Doctor Parnassus (Alt.: The Young Victoria)
    Best Editing: The Hurt Locker
    Best Sound: District 9 (Alt.: The Hurt Locker) – call me crazy… :)
    Best Visual Effects: Avatar (Alt.: District 9)

  • 19 2-21-2010 at 7:57 am

    Matt said...

    Hey Guy – You note that Cotillard made her first appearance at the BAFTAs that year but didn’t her win at the Globes pre-date that?

  • 20 2-21-2010 at 8:06 am

    Adam Smith said...

    @Me.: Pretty sure Basterds isn’t a Best Film nominee.

  • 21 2-21-2010 at 8:12 am

    Jim Τ said...

    Matt, she would have won the Globe anyway. She was competing in the usually hilarious category “comedy/musical”.

  • 22 2-21-2010 at 8:18 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Matt, you haven’t read the sentence correctly:

    “… late surges of momentum for the likes of Marion Cotillard, Tilda Swinton and Alan Arkin all made their first appearance on BAFTA night.”

    The momentum surge is the subject of the sentence, not the actors.

    The LA Critics award predated both, in any case. But the BAFTA was the notable turning-point.

  • 23 2-21-2010 at 9:32 am

    AdamL said...

    Fish Tank was 9-1 two weeks ago. I have single handedly backed it down to 3-1. Well not quite single handedly, but there’s obviously a few people like me who spotted how over-priced it was with bookmakers. Naturally, either An Education or Moon will win and I will cry.

  • 24 2-21-2010 at 9:50 am

    stu said...


  • 25 2-21-2010 at 11:16 am

    Nel said...

    No Meryl at the Baftas )o:

  • 26 2-21-2010 at 1:51 pm

    stu said...

    also inglourious basterds should win a few awards

  • 27 2-21-2010 at 2:00 pm

    stu said...

    kristen stewart should win rising star award

  • 28 2-21-2010 at 2:00 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    Uh, a bit late for that, Stu!

  • 29 2-21-2010 at 2:08 pm

    stu said...

    avatar to win most awards

  • 30 2-21-2010 at 2:09 pm

    stu said...

    colin firth to win best actor award

  • 31 2-21-2010 at 2:11 pm

    Ali E. said...

    Calm down Stu… The awards are already given. :)