February winner predictions

Posted by · 10:18 am · February 3rd, 2010

Jeff Bridges in Crazy HeartThese appeared at Movie City News’s Gurus o’ Gold page this morning, so you probably already saw them.  Here they are in any case, since, you know, I guess it’s about that time:

Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”

Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The Secret in Their Eyes”
Best Art Direction: “Avatar”
Best Cinematography: “Avatar”
Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”
Best Documentary Short: “The Last Truck: Closing of a GM Plant”
Best Short Film (Animated): “A Matter of Loaf and Death”
Best Short Film (Live Action): “The New Tenants”

The areas of uncertainty for me are Best Cinematography, which could split up the “Avatar” love in favor of throwing the handsomely photographed “Inglourious Basterds” a bone (though that award typically goes to something nominated for Best Art Direction as well, and there’s only one cross-over film), and Best Film Editing, which obviously could go to James Cameron’s blockbuster over the likely overall favorite.  I also have a feeling Best Original Screenplay is up for grabs, and it’s “Up” that I’d watch for rather than Quentin Tarantino.

Cut loose with your winner predictions below if you like.




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45 responses so far

  • 1 2-03-2010 at 10:22 am

    tony d said...

    I’m still not convinced of a Bullock win, and I agree that original screenplay isn’t certain – Up could certainly pull out a win here

  • 2 2-03-2010 at 10:27 am

    Tom said...

    Blind Side getting a best pic nom has finally convinced me that Bullock’s win is inevitable.
    As far as these picks go, the only ones I disagree with are Original Screenplay (I think they’ll give it to QT) and Foreign Language (The White Ribbon).

  • 3 2-03-2010 at 10:32 am

    Chris said...

    Please dont give the oscar to Sandra Bullock. The last thing I want to hear is Academy Award winner Sandra Bullock in Premonition 2.

  • 4 2-03-2010 at 10:43 am

    red_wine said...

    Mine are identical to yours.

    Save for

    Best Foreign Language Film: “A prophet”
    Best Film Editing: “Avatar”

    Up’s score is a modern classic but I think Avatar can upset it there. Avatar’s score is much more in your face. The Hurt Locker could win too if love for the film is overwhelming.

    I feel confident that The Hurt Locker is gonna win Original Screenplay. It is by far the favorite. If it looses, it will be an upset.

  • 5 2-03-2010 at 10:43 am

    david said...

    What…and give a way all the winners…and my chance at winning all those wonderful prizes?

    Like…not happening!!

  • 6 2-03-2010 at 10:48 am

    red_wine said...

    And Kris on the guru’s chart it says you are predicting Avatar for Best Editing but here you are predicting The Hurt Locker.

  • 7 2-03-2010 at 10:53 am

    James D. said...

    I more or less agree, but I think that Inglourious Basterds will manage to win it’s screenplay nod.

    Also, and no one else is saying so, but I understand that Anna Kendrick will be holding a statue next month.

  • 8 2-03-2010 at 11:06 am

    tony d said...

    I think Mo’Nique did too well on the awards circuit with her acceptance speeches to lose — Waltz should be secure be he seems less so than Mo’Nique

  • 9 2-03-2010 at 11:07 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    red: Yeah, I go back and forth on them. Yesterday it was “Avatar,” today it is “The Hurt Locker.” Tomorrow it will probably be “Avatar” again.

  • 10 2-03-2010 at 11:09 am

    Ben M said...

    I agree almost completely, the only differences in my predictions are Avatar for Sound Mixing and White Ribbon for FL (obviously I understand the group may not go for it, but with the Globe and cinematography nod I think it is the frontrunner).

    However, I do think Inglorious Basterds in original screenplay and Avatar in picture have better chances than you are giving them even if I agree with your predicting winners.

  • 11 2-03-2010 at 11:21 am

    Adam Smith said...

    @Ben M: Didn’t help Pan’s Labyrinth. Or Amelie.

  • 12 2-03-2010 at 11:26 am

    Jessica said...

    1) If Bullock wins, then that will reach a new low for the Best Actress category. I’ve always thought that Helen Hunt only won 10+ years ago because the AMPAS didn’t want to give the award to a Brit. She was the only American. She beat out Julie Christie, Judi Dench, Kate Winslet, and Helena Bonham Carter. Talk about undeserved. The next year Judi Dench won for her 6-minute performance in Shakespeare in Love. The Academy attempted to right its wrong.

    At this point, I’m convince Best Actress will go to Meryl for a few reasons. 1. Very little voter overlap between the Academy & HFPA and SAG. Bullock’s wins there were almost by default regarding her star power. Meryl also won SAG the year before, so they probably just didn’t want to give it to her two years in a row. 2. I know a lot of people like Bullock, but Best Actress? C’mon. She put on a wig and did her same shtick with a southern drawl. Big woop. 3. They can give it to Meryl without it really taking away giving an award to someone else who deserves it. Last year, they knew they had to give it to Winslet. A few years prior, they knew they had to give it to Mirren. This year, they can give it to Meryl. Give her the stature she endures and not have to worry about righting this year’s wrong next year.

    2) Avatar & Art Direction. I think the “animation/cartoon” bias will cause Avatar to lose this category. Most will see its art direction as a special effect. Actors like props and actual stages. It has very few of those. I can see Doctor Parnassus getting this for its unique atmosphere.

    3) Avatar & Cinematography. Again, the “animation/cartoon/special effect” bias. Also, winning cinematography tends to go to the Best Picture winner, i.e. Braveheart, American Beauty, Slumdog Millionaire. I don’t think Avatar is going to win Picture. No one wants to feed Cameron’s ego more and hear Na’vi spoken at the ceremony. I think almost anything can win this category except Avatar.

    4) Coco Before Chanel for Costume Design. It’s period. It’s instrumental to the film due to the subject matter. And lots of actresses love Chanel. Bright Star and The Young Victoria cancel each other out in the 19th century category. Possibly Doctor Parnassus too.

  • 13 2-03-2010 at 11:26 am

    James The Greatest said...

    Having seen all of the shortlisted shorts…

    I think that “Instead Of Abracadabra” has a lock on live action short. Animated could really go any way; if there’s a god, though, “Logorama” will take it.

  • 14 2-03-2010 at 11:30 am

    stylewriter said...

    Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker”
    Close to mine with a few changes

    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
    Best Actress: Sandra Bullock, “The Blind Side”
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
    Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “The White Ribbon”
    Best Art Direction: “Avatar”
    Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria”
    Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Makeup: “Il Divo”
    Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
    Best Music (Original Song): “Crazy Heart”
    Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
    Best Sound Mixing: “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
    Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”

  • 15 2-03-2010 at 11:33 am

    Megan said...

    This all looks pretty solid, though I am still hanging onto IB for Original Screenplay. I’m sorry, but I just don’t see how the lean (albeit appropriately so) screenplay for HL sizes up with the fantastic (though admittedly messy) stuff you find in Basterds.

    “I think Mo’Nique did too well on the awards circuit with her acceptance speeches to lose — Waltz should be secure be he seems less so than Mo’Nique”

    Waltz is a nervous wreck, and it shows. Can’t say I blame him. I just don’t think he knows how to do this. But he is going to have to drop the thespian gravitas a little bit and play the Hollywood game in order to make this all work for him. People like him, and he needs to understand he doesn’t have to impress people at this point.

  • 16 2-03-2010 at 12:12 pm

    AmericanRequiem said...

    Im rooting for basterds in screenplay and UP would be my second choice

    I do think Up has a chance of actually winning the whole thing(best picture), cause really who DOESNT like Up??

  • 17 2-03-2010 at 12:31 pm

    Holden said...

    The Hurt Locker had a great screenplay, but Inglourious Basterds’ badass rewrite of history will no doubt take home the Oscar. I’m not doubting the Foreign Language Film prediction, but every once in a while, the Academy will give the award to the film that deserves it (but the votes might split between A Prophet and The White Ribbon.) The Hurt Locker’s got this in the bag, especially with an extra nomination for its awesome score (even if it might only walk away with two statuettes.)

  • 18 2-03-2010 at 12:36 pm

    Marcus said...

    Best Picture: “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
    Best Actress: Meryl Streep “Julie & Julia”
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
    Best Original Screenplay: “Inglourious Basterds”

    Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “The White Ribbon”
    Best Art Direction: “Avatar”
    Best Cinematography: “Inglourious Basterds”
    Best Costume Design: “The Young Victoria”
    Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
    Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
    Best Music (Original Song): “Crazy Heart”
    Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
    Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
    Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
    Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”

  • 19 2-03-2010 at 12:39 pm

    Craig said...

    Up isn’t winning original screenplay. It’s Basterds or Hurt Locker.

  • 20 2-03-2010 at 12:51 pm

    Sean said...

    The Blind Side made to the the BP list, so some people love it and obviously love Bullock in it. Bullock was fine in it, nothing special, but the very male academy will vote her queen. Streep, as usual, is taken for granted.

  • 21 2-03-2010 at 12:51 pm

    Sean said...

    The Blind Side made to the the BP list, so some people love it and obviously love Bullock in it. Bullock was fine in it, nothing special, but the very male academy will vote her queen. Streep, as usual, is taken for granted.

  • 22 2-03-2010 at 1:12 pm

    McAllister said...

    I hope “Ajami” shocks everyone but me and walks away with the Best Foreign Language Film Oscar. It’s a powerful film to experience.

  • 23 2-03-2010 at 1:14 pm

    cineJAB said...

    the more i think about it, the more Jeremy Renner is Jeff Bridges’ only competition for Best Actor. I could toooootally see him winning in an Adrien Brody over DDL sort of way.

  • 24 2-03-2010 at 1:29 pm

    tintin said...

    I think avatar deserves Best Picture. Is really, the film of the year.

  • 25 2-03-2010 at 1:47 pm

    Manuel L. said...

    “I also have a feeling Best Original Screenplay is up for grabs, and it’s “Up” that I’d watch for rather than Quentin Tarantino.”

    After thinking that WALL-E was a real possibility last year only to see the award go the obvious frontrunner, I’ve given up on the idea that Pixar movies can actually WIN in the writing categories.

  • 26 2-03-2010 at 1:58 pm

    Manuel L. said...

    I kinda hope this year will be like 2007: even if most of the major categories seem locked-up, all of techs are up in the air… I think that in 2007 there was virtually not a single tech category locked before the ceremony. Maybe Makeup, and Score. Visual Effects seemed to be a slam-dunk for Transformers, and look how that turned out…Anyway:

    Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
    Directing: Kathryn Bigelow
    Actor: Jeff Bridges
    Actress: Sandra Bullock
    Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz
    Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
    Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
    Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
    Animated Feature: Up
    Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon
    Documentary Feature: The Cove
    Art Direction: Avatar
    Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
    Costume Design: The Young Victoria
    Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
    Makeup: Star Trek
    Original Score: Up
    Original Song: “The Weary Kind”, Crazy Heart
    Sound Editing: Avatar
    Sound Mixing: Avatar
    Visual Effects: Avatar

  • 27 2-03-2010 at 2:12 pm

    movieman said...

    My votes (of the nominees):

    Best Picture: “Inglourious Basterds”
    Best Actor: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”
    Best Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Coraline”
    Best Art Direction: “Nine”
    Best Cinematography: “Inglourious Basterds”
    Best Costume Design: “Nine”
    Best Directing: Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
    Best Film Editing: “Inglourious Basterds”
    Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
    Best Music (Original Score): “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Music (Original Song): “Take It All” from “Nine”
    Best Sound Editing: “Inglourious Basterds”
    Best Sound Mixing: “Inglourious Basterds”
    Best Visual Effects: “Star Trek”
    Best Writing (Adapted Screenplay): “Precious”
    Best Writing (Original Screenplay): “Inglourious Basterds”

  • 28 2-03-2010 at 3:00 pm

    Tom C said...

    I refuse to live in a world in which Sandra Bullock is an Academy Award winner and I can’t believe that Academy voters have it in their constitutions either, especially when Meryl has her best chance to win in years.

    Maybe it’s just me, but I never really thought of Editing as that much of a competition. I’ve always thought it was Hurt Locker’s from the get-go.

    BEST PICTURE: The Hurt Locker
    BEST DIRECTOR: Kathryn Bigelow
    BEST ACTOR: Jeff Bridges
    BEST ACTRESS: Meryl Streep
    BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR: Christoph Waltz
    BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Mo’Nique
    BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY: Inglorious Basterds
    BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY: Up in the Air
    BEST FOREIGN LANGUAGE FILM: The White Ribbon
    BEST DOCUMENTARY FEATURE: The Cove
    BEST ANIMATED FILM: Up
    BEST CINEMATOGRAPHY: Avatar
    BEST EDITING: The Hurt Locker
    BEST ART DIRECTION: Avatar
    BEST COSTUME DESIGN: The Young Victoria
    BEST SOUND MIXING: The Hurt Locker
    BEST SOUND EDITING: Avatar
    BEST VISUAL EFFECTS: Avatar
    BEST MAKE-UP: Star Trek
    BEST ORIGINAL SONG: “The Weary Kind”
    BEST ORIGINAL SCORE: Up

  • 29 2-03-2010 at 3:22 pm

    med said...

    I have a gut feeling that BA is really neck & neck between Bullock & Streep. The BS best picture nomination was based on box office and probably the last picture in. I just invision an academy lmember looking at the BA ballot and thinking “how long has it been since Meryl won? Doesn’t her performance outweigh Bullocks?” and marking her name accordingly…

  • 30 2-03-2010 at 6:04 pm

    B said...

    I realize that this is perhaps a really, really dumb question – but I’m new to following awards season.

    So all AMPAS members have turned in their ballots, and nominations are determined by those votes, and there is no more voting, correct? So AMPAS already knows the winners in every category, correct? If someone could explain this to me, I’d greatly appreciate it!

  • 31 2-03-2010 at 7:54 pm

    Erik 815 said...

    well, alright. Welcome to the conversation, then. No, that’s not how it works, the oversimplified version is this: there are 2 voting rounds. In the first each branch (actors, directors, writers, editors, etc) vote only for their own category/branch + best picture. Then they narrow it down to 5 nominees per category (10 for pic). Then every member gets a new ballot with the nominees and they vote in every category in the second round.

  • 32 2-03-2010 at 7:59 pm

    Glenn said...

    Ben M, just ask “Amelie” if bonus nominations help you out in Foreign Language Film. That cinematography nom means NOTHING since there is probably zero cross over.

  • 33 2-03-2010 at 8:01 pm

    Erik 815 said...

    Ask Pan’s Labyrinth too.

  • 34 2-03-2010 at 8:04 pm

    Glenn said...

    BTW Kris, has anyone pointed out that, yes indeed, even “Invictus” got snubbed quite obviously due to you using it as the Best Picture image in your sidebar? 3 for 3!!

  • 35 2-03-2010 at 8:07 pm

    Glenn said...

    Erik, very true. While I haven’t seen “No Man’s Land” many people think the branch made the right decision there. And I’m on the side of “The Lives of Others”. And then there’s the case of “City of God” which went from being a foreign category casualty to a four-time nominee, giving hope to others year in year out.

  • 36 2-03-2010 at 8:13 pm

    B said...

    @Erik 815: Thanks! I thought there had to be a second round of voting, but I’d never heard it mentioned before, so I was confused. Thank you for clearing that up!

  • 37 2-03-2010 at 8:45 pm

    Speaking English said...

    Perplexing how people are underestimating Joel and Ethan Coen in the Best Original Screenplay category. WHY is no one predicting the best script in the category, again?

  • 38 2-03-2010 at 9:10 pm

    Jason Travis said...

    If Meryl Streep loses this year, she will never win again. This is her best shot. There’s no one due. No Kate Winslet or Helen Mirren situation. Bullock is a star who has finally earned respect as a actress. Streep reaped the best reviews by an actress this year, and has the precursors. If she is denied, its telling us voters just don’t think she’s in need of a third Oscar. It will be strictly political.

    Think about it. When will the Globes or SAG give her another statue? Not in the near future. They’ve given her their share. And now a days its damn near impossible to win an Oscar without the Globe or SAG. Streep’s future chances will be shot. This is it. Let’s go academy, get it right this time!

  • 39 2-03-2010 at 9:24 pm

    Daniel said...

    What’s the logic behind The Secret in Their Eyes? I know it was a huge box-office success in Argentina, but I found the film really underwhelming. Don’t The White Band and A Prophet have much more momentum? Even La teta asustada has gotten more international love, and it’s a bit hard to take (though brilliant).

  • 40 2-04-2010 at 3:52 am

    lucy said...

    All I can say is that Meryl Streep’s shot to win Best Actress is this year,no more next year,no more, how can everybody always say next year,when she always loses damn it!!!!, Poor Meryl she is always taken for granted whwn will the Academy give her aTHIRD OSCAR!!!!???, Jack Nicholson won 3 in just 12 noms, Ingrid Bergman won 3 in just 7noms, Katharine Hepburn won 4 in just 12 noms, HOW ABOUT STREEP????, ACADEMY???!!, THIS ALREADY HER SIXTEENTH NOMINATION FOR GOD’S SAKE JUST GIVE THIS WOMAN HER THIRD OSCAR THIS YEAR!!!!!!!

  • 41 2-04-2010 at 4:10 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Lucy, the Oscars are five weeks away. If you carry on at that rate, you’ll give yourself a coronary before the big night even arrives. ;)

  • 42 2-04-2010 at 5:15 am

    lucy said...

    To Guy Lodge

    I am still young at 28 , and when I was writing this comment I am smiling with gritted teeth :)

  • 43 2-04-2010 at 6:19 pm

    SJG said...

    Well, I’m glad to see I’m not the only one who’s just EXASPERATED that everyone seems to have given up on Meryl Streep’s chances and APPALLED that the Academy would even contemplate giving it to someone else this year. (And by someone else I mean Sandra Bullock… Sidibe and Mulligan aren’t such terrible nominees.)

    I’m pretty sure I’ll just die if Meryl Streep loses. And I don’t even say this as a Sandra-hater. I think Sandra Bullock totally deserves the nomination. (Okay, maybe not “totally”, but she deserves it.)

    But especially if Meryl Streep loses just a year after she obviously deserved to win but nobody wanted to see Kate Winslet tie for the Oscar losingest actress in history… it’s just going to be a total and utter shame.

    And then, unfortunately, I’ll just have to get over it. There will be no justice.

  • 44 2-04-2010 at 7:36 pm

    Kevin said...

    Guy, that quip was just classic! Sorry Lucy, no offence meant. Just thought I’d give credit where it’s due!

    Wow, some people (namely the last two commenters) seem to be working themselves into a sweat about this whole (not-so-serious) thing.

    Take it easy, it’s just an awards ceremony.

  • 45 2-15-2010 at 1:33 pm

    Joseph Woosley said...

    Wayyyyy too much Avatar love in people’s predictions I think. I believe it will be lucky to pull away with two Oscars.

    Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges in Crazy Heart
    Best Actress: Gabourey Sidibe in Precious
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz in Inglourious Basterds
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique in Precious
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow for The Hurt Locker
    Best Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
    Best Adapted Screenplay: Precious
    Best Art Direction: The Young Victoria
    Best Cinematography: The Hurt Locker
    Best Film Editing: The Hurt Locker
    Best Costume Design: The Young Victoria
    Best Makeup: Star Trek
    Best Music Original Score: Fantastic Mr. Fox
    Best Music Original Song: The Weary Kind from Crazy Heart
    Best Sound Mixing: The Hurt Locker
    Best Sound Editing: The Hurt Locker
    Best Visual Effects: Avatar
    Best Animated Feature Film: Fantastic Mr. Fox
    Best Foreign Film: Un Prophete (France)
    Best Documentary Feature: The Cove
    Best Documentary Short Subject: China’s Unnatural Disaster: The Tears of Sichuan, Province
    Best Live Action Short: Kavi
    Best Animated Short Film: The Lady and the Reaper (La Dama y la Muerte)