How we did today (not bad) and a year out (not so much)

Posted by · 3:04 pm · February 2nd, 2010

Brian Geraghty in The Hurt LockerI forgot to sit down and take a look at my year-in-advance predictions for this year and see how I did.  Not too great.

In the Best Picture field (before the announcement of an expanded category, mind you), the only film I listed that made it through was “The Hurt Locker.” Kathryn Bigelow was also the only director I correctly projected, so that’s 1/10 and 1/5 in the top two categories.

Morgan Freeman, Carey Mulligan, Matt Damon and Penelope Cruz were the only actors I got correct, while in the screenplay categories it was just “An Education,” “A Serious Man” and “Up.”

All in all, including the crafts categories, I got 24 nominees of the 88 I predicted in 18 categories.  I’ve lost track of how well I’ve done with this silly experiment over the years, but I don’t think that’s one of the better tallies.  Maybe it is.

Which brings me to this announcement.  After a lot of consideration I’ve decided to forgo my nearly decade-old process of predicting the nominees a year in advance.  There will be no post-Oscar assessment of the year ahead.  The reasons are plenty.

First and foremost, who fucking cares?  Am I right?  Also, it’s a pain in the ass to have a slate of predictions in the sidebar throughout the first half of the year and into the summer, because generally speaking, I’m not comfortable digging back into things until July or August.  So the pressure is on to update consistently when there isn’t a whole lot to take into account.

I may not even bother with my annual massive collective of contenders (which I know for a fact numerous outlets use to glean and frame their looks at the race from afar).  It’s just a lot of work at a time when I’d frankly rather be winding down, but I haven’t totally given up on that yet.  Maybe.

Anyway, back to report card stuff, as I mentioned this morning, I nailed 85 of 116 predicted nominees (94 of 116 with alternates) and 35 of the 45 major category nominees (40 of 45 with alternates).  I haven’t exactly covered all the terrain out there, but I think that’s tops in this little corner of the web.  Go me, I guess.  Guy, meanwhile, nailed 78 of the 106 nominees he predicted, a noble stat by anyone’s measure.

How did you do?

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63 responses so far

  • 1 2-03-2010 at 5:14 am

    JFK said...

    I’m all about your year in advance Kris, I’m disappointed that you won’t be continuing. Actually, it is what brought me to your site in the first place.

    Que lastima hombre!

  • 2 2-03-2010 at 5:18 am

    JFK said...

    Rob, just saw your post. You rock! I agree, someone has got to do it and the Film Experience doesn’t cut it, for me at least.

  • 3 2-03-2010 at 5:57 am

    McGuff said...

    I agree with doing away with the predictions. But I wonder if we still can’t get an article previewing the movies that some of these studios have slated for awards season releases. If nothing else, it’s always interesting to me to see how a studio perceives things before the public has seen a film, and how radically they will change it after.

  • 4 2-03-2010 at 6:50 am

    stylewriter said...

    I definitely fucking care, Kris. I love looking more at the technical categories than anything. What about leaving the big categories until mid-year, but going with the techs from the start?

  • 5 2-03-2010 at 7:16 am

    AntonGorodetsky said...

    I think it’s a good decision,
    predicting a year in advance has nothing to do with judging the final product, but more going after the big names and naming them because of their past, a common oscar-error to put movies like nine or lovely bones imediately into the top 5 even though we never had evidence for it’s quality other than a few names
    on the other hands movies like inglourious basterds always have to fight a bloody war to get finally recognized, it seems so much simpler for a “clint eastwood’s untitled nelson mandela project” to come into the inner circle than a movie that had no “oscar-signs”

  • 6 2-03-2010 at 7:38 am

    Danny King said...


    Ha, you guys are on top of it! I think I might have glanced over that, because I was thinking more along the lines of when the film’s actual release date was announced, which might have only been one or two days after Kris’ statement. I must have forgotten that Searchlight actually had the rights to the film several months before. Good catch!

  • 7 2-03-2010 at 8:55 am

    Ronn said...

    Rob, glad to see your inclusion of Dakota Fanning for “The Runaways”. I was there everyday and as each scene got increasingly more challenging she kept rising to the occasion and left everyone shaking their heads in amazement of how a 15 year old girl as sweet and innocent as her could go to certain dark places and even begin to pull off depression, addiction, love, loss, confusion and a life spiraling out of control so effectively. She was a pleasure to watch and work with and someone you want to root for. Kristen Stewart, not so much. Anyway, I would love to see Dakota get some critical love for this role.

  • 8 2-03-2010 at 9:03 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Alright, alright. Maybe I’ll compile the massive list after all.

  • 9 2-03-2010 at 9:30 am

    david said...

    Kris..please don’t leave us all in Chad’s hand…I beg of thee…

  • 10 2-03-2010 at 1:37 pm

    Will said...

    i too love the year in advance predictions

  • 11 2-03-2010 at 3:08 pm

    Rob Cameron said...

    Ronn- you worked on The Runaways? That’s tremendously exciting, I’m jealous. Hopefully some day I’ll be in the thick of a movie set myself.

  • 12 2-03-2010 at 8:52 pm

    Maxim said...

    Rob, I understand your point but:

    ” Coens whenever there’s an A Single Man there’s a Burn After Reading.”

    You probably meant “A Serious Man”. Still, you are talking to the wrong man here as I adore “Burn After Reading”. To, me “True Grit’s”” origins is one of those things that will only help Coens. In any case, as I don’t really anything that could stand in their way (other from their own success) to me they are the frontrunners for many nominations. Plus look at who’s producing (not exec) producing.

    We’ll see how this pans out though.

  • 13 2-04-2010 at 1:25 pm

    Ben M. said...

    I found my first predictions for the major categories, not quite a year in advance but from late March.

    My best categories were director (which for some reason always seeems to be the one I do best in my first predictions) and actress; I got 3/5 in those- Cameron, Bigelow, and Daniels for director, Streep, Mulligan, and Sidibe for actress. I got 2 films right in picture: Up and Avatar; though I would’ve put Precious in there and maybe Hurt Locker had I known there would be 10 slots.