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This is a fantastic little guide to the race over at Entertainment Weekly, but if they really want to step it up, give me the same tool across the 80-year Academy history. Let me compare, contrast. That would be a hell of a research instrument, for those of us sick enough to take prognostication WAY too freakin’ seriously.
(via Awards Daily)
15 responses so far
1 1-29-2010 at 1:31 pm
david said...
I think the writing is really on the wall: The Hurt Locker will win Best Picture and likely Best Director as well.
Avatar won’t walk away empty handed however. I think it will win 4 or 5 Oscars in the craft or tech categories.
I wonder if the Academy would consider The Cove for a Best Picture nomination?? It’s most certainly more deserving then any of the other narrative films you could plug into the final three wide open spots.
2 1-29-2010 at 1:58 pm
Al said...
Weighted voting throws everything off, Im still saying Basterds or Up In The Air.
3 1-29-2010 at 2:42 pm
Loyal said...
Whichever film has the most nominations come Tuesday will win.
It’s looking like either Avatar or The Hurt Locker will lead with the pack. Maybe it’ll be even more fuzzy and they’ll tie with 9 nominations each.
4 1-29-2010 at 2:55 pm
Big Braveheart said...
Best film of 2009 was Mesrine!!! 2 parts but 1 helluva film! Vincent Cassel for best actor!!
5 1-29-2010 at 3:18 pm
tim said...
Inglourious Basterds will have the most nominations and will win best picture.
6 1-29-2010 at 3:53 pm
Andrew F said...
Did anyone else laugh when they saw this chart? Holy crap, what a sweeper.
7 1-29-2010 at 4:02 pm
Silencio said...
Just thought I’d say that while your 80-year proposal is indicative of taking this prognostication thing quite seriously, I wouldn’t downplay it that much. It’s, in my view, another branch of social science. So look at it that way instead of just feeling like a hopeless geek :)
8 1-29-2010 at 8:03 pm
Megan said...
“Whichever film has the most nominations come Tuesday will win.”
Yeah, but remember Benjamin Button? A record-breaking 13 nods, and nil to show for it?
Basterds might have the greatest number of nods, maybe only by one or two. I’m refuse to budge with my prediction for Hurt Locker, which I think will actually have a limited number of nods, particularly if there are some vulnerabilities in the acting categories. Renner and Mackey, despite their great performances, just can’t gain any momentum.
9 1-29-2010 at 8:21 pm
Me. said...
The most nominated film will be “Avatar”. It’s going to be nominated in most technical categories, with directing and picture nominations. The race right now is between “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker”. I would love it if “Avatar” won Best Picture and “The Hurt Locker” directing.
Also, I just got back from seeing “Avatar: The Imax 3D Experience”. It was the best cinematic experience I have ever had in my life. I felt like I was flying in those landscapes on an Ikran and I was just blown away visually and emotionally. 10/10
10 1-29-2010 at 8:32 pm
Craig said...
Avatar is going to have the most nods without any acting or writing nominations? I doubt that…
11 1-29-2010 at 8:42 pm
Megan said...
Craig,
Some people think that Avatar could very well sneak in with a screenplay nod. The mere prospect is terrifying, but it could happen.
Now obviously it wouldn’t win, but a nod is not impossible.
As for acting, not going to happen. Weren’t any bad actors in the film, necessarily, but obviously the writing wasn’t conducive to any real creativity in that realm.
Feh.
12 1-29-2010 at 8:55 pm
/3rtfu11 said...
“Yeah, but remember Benjamin Button? A record-breaking 13 nods, and nil to show for it?”
It won 3 tech awards.
13 1-30-2010 at 4:29 am
Loyal said...
If Avatar doesn’t come out of Tueaday heralded by the media as “the film with the most nominations,” it’s pretty much done.
With a surprise nom for Mackie, The Hurt Locker could very well come within one, tie, or even beat Avatar in total noms IF Avatar doesn’t have the widespread tech support we’re all (well, most) are expecting it to have.
I currently have Avatar with 10 noms, THL with 8. That’s way too close for comfort.
14 1-30-2010 at 5:42 am
Megan said...
“It won 3 tech awards.”
Oh yeah. I stand corrected.
But still, at the end of the day….didn’t amount to crap.
My main point is an enormous number of nods doesn’t necessarily hedge your bets for victory.
Doesn’t hurt, but it’s not a tremendous boon, either.
15 1-30-2010 at 3:11 pm
A Broken broom don't sweep said...
“Hurt Locker” will sweep many awards, but it won’t win the most nominations. Avatar will get a few nominations, but won’t win most of them. Basterds and Up in the Air will probably each get one or two nominations, but they are at the back of the pack.
There is no way “Avatar” is going to win all the techs as suggested above. If it isn’t best picture or best director and doesn’t get a screenplay nom, there is no way it will win best cinematography (too much CGI) or best editing (too clunky of storytelling and acting), or any acting awards, which means it probably won’t win score or sound either because why would it? Up is favored for score and Crazy Heart is favored for best song. It’s best hope is a victory in visual effects, which is the only thing it really has nailed down at this point.