SAG on the way

Posted by · 3:57 pm · January 20th, 2010

Meryl Streep at the 2009 Screen Actors Guild AwardsSaturday night the Screen Actors Guild Awards will go down, televised on TNT, and I can’t really believe the race is THIS sewn up.  Right down the line, most are calling it for Bridges, Streep, Waltz and Mo’Nique.  There are some differences of opinion on the ensemble performance category, but for the most part, those four Oscar favorites are the expected victors with the guild.

The last time SAG went four-for-four with the Academy’s ultimate winners was 2004.  The last time before that was 1997, which actually featured a tie between Gloria Stewart and Kim Basinger, so it’s a bit less definitive.  And in point of fact, those are the only times things have matched up.

The reason for this is fairly simple.  The Screen Actors Guild (a 90,000-member body of people) votes for the winners at large, while the nominees are decided upon by a roughly 2,000-member nominating committee, 1,200 of them based in Los Angeles.  The nominating committee obviously sees more of the contenders than the vast membership.  For that reason, generally speaking, you can expect the unexpected.

Due to this paradigm, it behooves a studio to send out screeners.  But 90,000 DVDs can get quite pricey, so not everyone does it.  The only films that voters received this year were “An Education,” “Julie & Julia,” “Inglourious Basterds,” “Precious” and “Up in the Air.” So I find myself wondering if Jeff Bridges, for instance, is as secure here as he probably is for Oscar.

“Crazy Heart” didn’t expand considerably until last weekend.  It’s doing well, of course, but I’m guessing most SAG members had likely already voted by the time they were able to see it.  George Clooney, meanwhile, is totally actor-friendly, a face of the industry, an out-spoken supporter of extras and happened to miss out a few years back when voters opted for beloved character actor Paul Giamatti in “Cinderella Man” rather than Clooney’s work in “Syriana” (which ultimately netted him an Oscar).

The scenario could play itself out similarly this year.  Or perhaps not.  Maybe even for those who haven’t seen “Crazy Heart,” seeing Bridges’s name on a ballot was enough to check him off and it’ll be the third time in 16 years that the winners line-up matched Oscar to a T.  Many vote blind on this stuff.  Or, hell, maybe the ultimate Oscar line-up isn’t as solid as we’d like to believe.

Whatever the case, I feel like going a bit out on a limb, so I’ll call it for Clooney and happily wipe the egg off my face if Bridges steamrolls on through.

Thinking along different lines, I also find myself wondering if Meryl Streep is really going to win two years in a row.  Yes, voters received copies of “Julie & Julia,” but at more than $200 million in box office receipts, I imagine many of them also saw “The Blind Side” and wouldn’t mind taking the opportunity to award Sandra Bullock.  There is also a slight chance Gabourey Sidibe pulls off something of an upset.

But I don’t think I have the cojones to stroll any further out onto that limb, so I’ll stick with Meryl.  The rest should go accordingly.

My guesses:

Best Actor
George Clooney, “Up in the Air”

Best Actress
Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”

Best Supporting Actor
Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Supporting Actress
Mo’Nique, “Precious”

Best Ensemble Performance
“Inglourious Basterds”

Best Stunt Ensemble
“Star Trek”

What are your picks for this weekend’s SAG Awards?  Have your say in the comments section below!

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45 responses so far

  • 1 1-20-2010 at 4:03 pm

    Gustavo Cruz said...

    Why do u think Inglourious Basterds is gonna win?

  • 2 1-20-2010 at 4:03 pm

    JJ said...

    UGH. What makes Clooney’s performance so unbelievably winning? I don’t get it. I never do with him. Rant over.

  • 3 1-20-2010 at 4:05 pm

    Patryk said...

    Perfectly logical predictions. Right on, all categories.

  • 4 1-20-2010 at 4:09 pm

    annie said...

    as long as Bullock doesnt win this, I am ok.

  • 5 1-20-2010 at 4:10 pm

    Benito Delicias said...

    The Clooney/Bridges argument would hold better if it weren’t Bridges. Like you say many might not have watched the movie but all of them have heard about Bridges and how he looks like the lock for Oscars without seeing the movie or without seeing him win the Globe. That should be enough for these people to vote, who wouldn’t want to vote for Jeff Bridges? If this were some other actor, not that popular, not that veteran, ok, Clooney takes this.

    As for Bullock/Streep, well she just won last year and a couple of years before that for Angels in America, some might recall voting for her twice already for this show, so they might want to throw it to Sandra, or like you say Sidibe. But Sandra wins before Sidibe I think.

    Basterds, MoNique and Waltz are more than safe.

  • 6 1-20-2010 at 4:13 pm

    Zak said...

    no actor has ever won 2 years in a row….and Streep is always breaking records….especially when they are her own. She’ll do it again on Saturday when she wins Best Actress.

    my predictions are all the same except I think Bridges still pulls off the win not only based on the performance, but his status in Hollywood as it is today as the underrated, underappreciated, and overdue actor :)

  • 7 1-20-2010 at 4:20 pm

    Andrew said...

    Cant see all the fuss about Clooney performance. He seems to be just playing Clooney

  • 8 1-20-2010 at 4:23 pm

    annie said...

    Zac I really hope so, I am not crazy about Julie& Julia, but the thought of having academy winner Sandra Bullock is too muhc for me.

  • 9 1-20-2010 at 4:32 pm

    Al said...

    I think Up In The Air has a shot at ensemble. Although those Inglourious Basterds have plenty of great performances. Tough call, and I believe this is Basterds last chance to prove its self possible.

  • 10 1-20-2010 at 4:34 pm

    Me. said...

    Best Actor: Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
    Best Actress: Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique – Precious
    Best Ensemble: Inglourious Basterds

    PGA – Avatar
    DGA – The Hurt Locker (although I wouldn’t be surprised to see Avatar here)

  • 11 1-20-2010 at 4:34 pm

    Me. said...

    Also, Up in the Air wasn’t nominated for ensemble.

  • 12 1-20-2010 at 4:43 pm

    tim said...

    Gustavo Cruz – “Inglourious Basterds” is this year’s “Actor’s movie.” It has a large international ensemble and everyone seems to love it. Biggest proof it is the frontrunner for the SAG win? Diane Kruger’s surprise nomination in supporting actress. She was good to be sure, but hardly the best thing about the movie and hardly the most deserving of a supporting actress nomination. It should easily pick up a win here.

    Kris – So is Carey Mulligan done? Does the fact that the voting body received “An Education” screeners help her at all?

  • 13 1-20-2010 at 4:45 pm

    Andrew said...

    Great to see Bright Star acknowledged in Best Picture, Actress and Cinematography in the International Cinephile Society nominations!

    • 35 Shots of Rum
    • Bright Star
    • District 9
    • Fantastic Mr. Fox
    • The Hurt Locker
    • Inglourious Basterds
    • A Serious Man
    • Tokyo Sonata
    • Up In The Air
    • The White Ribbon

    • Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
    • Neill Blomkamp – District 9
    • Ethan & Joel Coen – A Serious Man
    • Michael Haneke – The White Ribbon
    • Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds

    • 35 Shots of Rum
    • The Beaches of Agnès
    • Broken Embraces
    • The Headless Woman
    • Lorna’s Silence
    • O’Horten
    • Ponyo
    • Still Walking
    • Summer Hours
    • Tokyo Sonata
    • The White Ribbon

    • Sharlto Copley – District 9
    • Colin Firth – A Single Man
    • Joaquin Phoenix – Two Lovers
    • Jeremy Renner – The Hurt Locker
    • Michael Stuhlbarg – A Serious Man

    • Abbie Cornish – Bright Star
    • Catalina Saavedra – The Maid
    • Gabourey Sidibe – Precious
    • Meryl Streep – Julie and Julia
    • Tilda Swinton – Julia

    • Peter Capaldi – In the Loop
    • Anthony Mackie – The Hurt Locker
    • Christian McKay – Me and Orson Welles
    • Jérémie Renier – Lorna’s Silence
    • Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds

    • Penelope Cruz – Broken Embraces
    • Vera Farmiga – Up In The Air
    • Diane Kruger – Inglourious Basterds
    • Melanie Laurent – Inglourious Basterds
    • Mo’Nique – Precious

    • 35 Shots of Rum – Claire Denis & Jean-Pol Fargeau
    • The Hurt Locker – Mark Boal
    • Inglourious Basterds – Quentin Tarantino
    • A Serious Man – Ethan & Joel Coen
    • Summer Hours – Olivier Assayas
    • The White Ribbon – Michael Haneke

    • District 9 – Neill Blomkamp & Terri Tatchell
    • Fantastic Mr. Fox – Wes Anderson & Noah Baumbach
    • In the Loop – Jesse Armstrong, Simon Blackwell, Armando Iannucci & Tony Roche
    • A Single Man – Tom Ford & David Scearce
    • Up in the Air – Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner
    • Where the Wild Things Are – Spike Jonze & Dave Eggers

    • Antichrist – Anthony Dod Mantle
    • Bright Star – Greig Fraser
    • Inglourious Basterds – Robert Richardson
    • A Serious Man – Roger Deakins
    • The White Ribbon – Christian Berger

    • Broken Embraces – José Salcedo
    • District 9 – Julian Clarker
    • The Hurt Locker – Chris Innis & Bob Murawski
    • Inglourious Basterds – Sally Menke
    • A Serious Man – Roderick Jaynes

    • Avatar – Rick Carter & Robert Stromberg
    • Fantastic Mr. Fox – Nelson Lowry
    • Inglourious Basterds – David Wasco
    • A Serious Man – Jess Gonchor
    • A Single Man – Dan Bishop

    • Fantastic Mr. Fox – Alexandre Desplat
    • Ponyo – Joe Hisaishi
    • A Single Man – Abel Korzeniowski
    • Star Trek – Michael Giacchino
    • Up – Michael Giacchino

    • In the Loop
    • Inglourious Basterds
    • A Serious Man
    • Summer Hours
    • The White Ribbon

    • Coraline
    • Fantastic Mr. Fox
    • Mary and Max
    • Ponyo
    • Up

    • Anvil! The Story of Anvil
    • The Beaches of Agnès
    • The Cove
    • Of Time and the City
    • The September Issue

  • 14 1-20-2010 at 4:53 pm

    A.J said...

    I call a tie for best actress Streep and Bullock. You heard it here first.

  • 15 1-20-2010 at 4:56 pm

    jbf said...

    I will BARF if this happens

  • 16 1-20-2010 at 5:07 pm

    Al said...

    #11, my bad, I wasn’t sure what was nominated and was just going by assumptions.

  • 17 1-20-2010 at 5:47 pm

    Kevin said...

    Andrew: Those ISC nominations look pretty agreeable to me across the board, fantastic to (finally) see some recognition of Tilda and Copley, amongst others.

  • 18 1-20-2010 at 5:48 pm

    starbucks10172 said...

    I still find it hard to believe that the SAG would want to reward Streep twice in two years for Lead Actress. With Bullock’s “working actress” cred and the fact she’s never won sans Best Ensemble for Crash, I don’t see her losing this one, actually.

  • 19 1-20-2010 at 5:53 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    What the hell are the International Cinephile Society Awards?

  • 20 1-20-2010 at 5:58 pm

    Me. said...

    The International Cinephile Award nominations are actually better than all the rest. Why? Two words: BRIGHT STAR.

  • 21 1-20-2010 at 6:06 pm

    Michael said...

    Wow, those International Cinephile Society Award nominations are pretty hot! It would be a shocking day if the Academy ever got that creative.

  • 22 1-20-2010 at 6:28 pm

    cineJAB said...

    I think they’ll be a bit unique:
    Best Actor: Colin Firth
    Best Actress: Meryl Streep
    Best Supporting Actor: Stanley Tucci
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique
    Cast: Inglorious Basterds

  • 23 1-20-2010 at 6:48 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    Zak: Actually, Renee Zellweger won back-to-back SAG Awards for “Chicago” and “Cold Mountain.” No one has yet pulled it off in the lead category.

  • 24 1-20-2010 at 6:52 pm

    med said...

    I don’t see how actors could reward the inconsequential, mediocre, and yes, awful performance of Sandra Bullock in The Blind Side…

  • 25 1-20-2010 at 6:55 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    A performance can’t be both mediocre AND awful, surely? ;)

  • 26 1-20-2010 at 7:16 pm

    Megan said...

    I’m pretty much going along the grain of things, here. Monique and Christoph are pretty much Godzilla and King Kong at this point; indiscriminately tearing their ways through the circuit, and it’s delightful

    Basterds will and should get the Ensemble prize; this was a large cast with even the minor characters having memorable performances (one of Tarantino’s strengths in my mind).

    Didn’t really think about the fact that many have yet to see Bridges movie. [pensive chin rub]. Not sure WHAT to call, here.

  • 27 1-20-2010 at 7:18 pm

    Me. said...

    I second Michael, if those international cinephile awards were a woman, I would make love to them.

  • 28 1-20-2010 at 9:49 pm

    Glenn said...

    This just reminded me of that clip on YouTube of Meryl’s win being turned into a “Price is Right” sketch.

  • 29 1-20-2010 at 9:54 pm

    Danny King said...

    Bridges, Streep, Waltz, Mo’Nique, Precious.

  • 30 1-20-2010 at 10:11 pm

    Paul Outlaw said...

    A rule of thumb for winning money betting on the SAG awards: Look at my ballot (I voted yesterday) and NEVER pick any more than three names that I voted for. My fellow guild members have VERY different taste than I do.

    Here we go:

    Colin Firth (no way)

    Gabourey Sidibe (no way)

    Woody Harrelson (doubtful)

    Mo’Nique (ding ding ding!)

    Public Enemies (nope)

    Precious (doubtful)

    Kevin Kline (Cyrano de Bergerac) (maybe)

    Sigourney Weaver (Prayers for Bobby) (no way)

    Bryan Cranston (Breaking Bad) (getting warm)

    Holly Hunter (Saving Grace) (no way)

    Alec Baldwin (30 Rock) (ding ding ding!)

    Edie Falco (Nurse Jackie) (doubtful)

    24 (likely)

    Mad Men (ding ding ding!)

    Modern Family (doubtful)

  • 31 1-20-2010 at 11:23 pm

    Anna said...

    Inglorious Basterds is the most enjoyable, most inventive movie of the year and it should win best ensemble and yes I’ve seen all of the nominees. It should win the Oscar as well.

    Sandra Bullock should win. She is amazing in two movies this year.

  • 32 1-20-2010 at 11:25 pm

    james said...

    Can Mad Men and 30 rock just take themselves off the list — it’s just so dull having the same winners in every awards show.

    Go Inglorious Basterds! I think Jeremy Renner should seriously be considered for best actor. Love Sandra Bullock in both the blind side and the proposal. Great actress!

  • 33 1-20-2010 at 11:27 pm

    Ben said...

    Sandra Bullock plays a real life, take charge woman in a heartwarming true story that has made over 200 million and has been in the top 10 for two months and counting. Bullock is amazing. How many times will they get a chance to reward Bullock? Streep is amazing but she did win last year.

  • 34 1-20-2010 at 11:49 pm

    Ed said...

    I will not watch the Oscar Awards if Bullock wins SAG! That’s all!

  • 35 1-21-2010 at 12:41 am

    lucy said...

    If there is only one actress who could win the SAG two years in a row that is Meryl Streep because she is the true frontrunner this year, As what Leonardo Dicaprio says Sandra Bullock winning will be the most ridiculous thing ever.

    Streep should win the SAG to solidify her frontrunner status.

  • 36 1-21-2010 at 2:18 am

    Ross said...

    They gave it to Renee Zellweger two years in a row – 2002 in lead and 2003 in supporting. And Streep can win back-t0-back in lead. They know that she needs their support to cement her front-runner status. There are tones of actors at the Screen Actors Guild, who adore Meryl and they know it’s her year. And let’s not forget that a lot of actors, who didn’t vote for her last year, will vote for her this time around.

  • 37 1-21-2010 at 4:02 am

    Plainview said...

    I read someone say “how many times will they have the chance to award Bullock?”

    It’s as if she’s a respected veteran who’s been inexplicably ignored by the Academy all these years. Let’s face it, she’s an OK actress at best.

    Of course she has a shot at winning SAG because Meryl won last year, but even if Bullock does win here, that does not guarantee her victory at the Oscars. It’s a different story there.

    I’d say Kris’ logic as to why Clooney could win over Bridges makes total sense to me. Honestly I haven’t thought about it before, but it really could happen. Penn won last year (lost to Johnny Depp in 2003) so Clooney has a huge shot here too, since he won the Oscar in 2005 with no SAG in his mantle. Besides, he has solid support too.

    And if the films they received mean anything, then it’s more good news for Clooney. Also, that would make Mulligan Streep’s biggest threat – again.

  • 38 1-21-2010 at 5:29 am

    Regina said...

    I do not hate Sandra. I love her in Ms. Congeniality, 1 and 2. She’s a lovable gal, but she winning before La Streep is worse than Hilary Swank getting three Oscars before Meryl. Sandra showed the Academy what she can really do, and when she gives another performance a la Blind Side, then Academy can give it to her. Did they give it to Julia Roberts when she was first nommed in the 90’s? No.

  • 39 1-21-2010 at 7:01 am

    coffeefortwo said...

    The logic about SAG wanting to reward George Clooney because they overlooked his Oscar winning performance is sound. That’s a very typical SAG move. The problem with that is Jeff Bridges. Any doubts about what will happen when it’s actually his peers voting were handily eliminated when he won his Golden Globe statue and the crowd responded with a highly enthusiastic standing ovation. The fact that they may not have seen the performance yet is (perhaps sadly) incidental. They’re not rewarding the work, they’re rewarding the actor. You think they actually gave an award to Ruby Dee a couple years ago because they all saw and liked her performance in “American Gangster”? I don’t believe that for a second. I believe they gave it to her because they wanted to give a trophy to Ruby Dee. Bridges is as much of a lock as Mo’Nique.

    And I’d venture that, no matter how much some may gnash their teeth over the idea, that Sandra Bullock is the likely winner in Best Actress. That award Johnny Depp has with the word “Pirates” etched into the base testifies that they’re not afraid of big popular entertainment, especially if they think they’re awarding a sort of breakthrough for a longtime toiler. It’s easy to forget because he’s been very good for quite some time, but Depp didn’t really get much awards show love until he channeled his inner Keith Richards to play Jack Sparrow. Bullock winning would actually be a fairly similar act of awarding a breakthrough.

    If there’s going to be a hiccup anywhere, it’ll be in Best Supporting Actor where there may be enough sentimental affection for Christopher Plummer to let him squeak past Christoph Waltz, especially if enough voters assume, probably correctly, that Waltz has the Oscar sewn up and want to give Plummer a sort of consolation prize. I don’t necessarily think that’s going to happen, but that strikes me as the most likely scenario for the SAGs breaking this season’s pattern.

    While she was indeed born Gloria Stewart, her performing name is Gloria Stuart, by the way. The fact that she has a SAG Award and not an Oscar statuette was one of the first signs that the sentimental vote had moved from the Academy Awards to the SAG Awards, which may bode well for my (admittedly straw-grasping) Christopher Plummer theory.

  • 40 1-21-2010 at 7:27 am

    Revoir said...

    Well if Johnny depp got “The Pirates” votes lat 2005, well Meryl Streep Can get “The Devils” votes this year…

    That’s all..

  • 41 1-21-2010 at 10:17 am

    billbil said...

    Guy – LOL – A performance can’t be both mediocre AND awful, surely? How true!!!

    My gut is also crying out Colin Firth – it was such a supurb, actory performance and gosh, don’t those actors like to acknowledge those special, surprising, confirming performances by actors who’ve been around awhile? But my gut is way out in left field anyway.

    And Bridges and his 2 standing ovations really convey something, don’t they?

    Gosh I hope Meryl takes home this and the Oscar. I know, I know, and Bullock is such a honey, but gosh…

  • 42 1-21-2010 at 10:18 am

    billbil said...

    Uh oh – there’s another one, Guy! And I really didn’t mean to do it!!

    Can a performance be surprising and confirming at the same time?

  • 43 1-21-2010 at 9:24 pm

    Leone said...

    93,000 SAG members can go any which way but loose! Let’s hope for surprises!! Nothing would make me happier than watching Clooney pick up this honor from his peers. His tenderest performance of this career and to top it off, seems like a really wonderful person who has his priorities straight.

  • 44 1-21-2010 at 9:36 pm

    Anna said...

    I’m looking forward to SAG. Unless Bullock wins (I love her in The Blind Side but doesn’t deserve to win for it), I think all the winners will be really deserving.

  • 45 1-22-2010 at 6:39 am

    Zé said...

    OMG, I go crazy every time people start finding stupid arguments to support bullock’s potential upset over Streep. Johnny Depp is GENIUS in Pirates, he was just as good as Sean Penn and Bill Murray that year. Sandra Bullock led a drama, and she got nominated for that. The performance is mediocre, and the movie is awful and corny and cheesy and B-A-D!!! Streep HAS to win this, or all award shows will lose most of their credibility