Guessing the Globes

Posted by · 11:46 am · January 17th, 2010

Matt Damon in The Informant!Kris offered a space for Golden Globe speculation, along with his own predictions, a few days ago — but if you still have some guesses to get out of your system before the ceremony tonight, have at it here. My own predictions (along with some wild stabs in the TV races) have been up on Tom O’Neil’s site for over a week now. In case you missed them, however, here they are, along with my personal picks in each category.

I’m not as confident in these predictions as I was when I made them a fortnight ago. But even if “the buzz” is telling us that “Avatar” has the top prize in the bag, it’s been mistaken before. So I’m sticking with my off-beam prediction that the Globes’ more European sensibilities could come into play in that race, while also tipping the Best Actress balance toward Carey Mulligan rather than the momentum-advantaged Sandra Bullock. Probably wrong on both counts, but we’ll see. Meanwhile, two comedy races pose multiple potential outcomes … what are your hunches?

Best Picture (Drama)
Will win: “Inglourious Basterds”
Should win: “The Hurt Locker”

Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)
Will and should win: “It’s Complicated”

Best Director
Will and should win: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker”

Best Actor (Drama)
Will win: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Should win: Colin Firth, “A Single Man”

Best Actress (Drama)
Will and should win: Carey Mulligan, “An Education”

Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)
Will and should win: Matt Damon, “The Informant!”

Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)
Will win: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Should win: Julia Roberts, “Duplicity”

Best Supporting Actor
Will and should win: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”

Best Supporting Actress
Will and should win: Mo’Nique, “Precious”

Best Screenplay
Will win: Quentin Tarantino, “Inglourious Basterds”
Should win: Mark Boal, “The Hurt Locker”

Best Foreign Language Film
Will and should win: “A Prophet”

Best Animated Film
Will win: “Up”
Should win: “Coraline”

Best Original Score
Will win: James Horner, “Avatar”
Should win: Abel Korzeniowski, “A Single Man” and Carter Burwell and Karen O, “Where the Wild Things Are”

 Best Original Song
Will win: “I See You” from “Avatar”
Should win: “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”

 




→ 43 Comments Tags: , , , , | Filed in: Daily

43 responses so far

  • 1 1-17-2010 at 11:51 am

    Nigel Bridgeman said...

    I’m going with (500) Days of Summer for Musical/Comedy. Other than that I don’t really have any thoughts.

  • 2 1-17-2010 at 11:56 am

    cineJAB said...

    Best Picture (Drama)
    Avatar

    Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)
    The Hangover

    Best Director
    James Cameron, Avatar

    Best Actor (Drama)
    George Clooney, Up In the Air

    Best Actress (Drama)
    Gabby Sidibe, Precious

    Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)
    Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 500 Days of Summer

    Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)
    Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

    Best Supporting Actor
    Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

    Best Supporting Actress
    Mo’Nique, Precious

    Best Screenplay
    Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

    Best Foreign Language Film
    Broken Embraces

    Best Animated Film
    Up

    Best Original Score
    Up

    Best Original Song
    “The Weary Kind” Crazy Heart

  • 3 1-17-2010 at 11:58 am

    James D. said...

    Guy Lodge, you think Julia Roberts was better than Meryl Streep? Oh my.

  • 4 1-17-2010 at 12:04 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    If it’s any consolation, my runner-up would be Streep in “It’s Complicated.”

  • 5 1-17-2010 at 12:13 pm

    Nel said...

    Mulligan? Pah…glad your so bad at these things otherwise we wouldn’t get to see the full on lesbo action between Streep and Bullock. All that rivalry has to be expressed some how (o;

    No gut no glory predictions

    Drama: The Hurt Locker
    Comedy: 500 Days of Summer
    Drama Actor: Bridges
    Drama Actress: Sidibe
    Supporting Actor: Harrelson
    Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
    Foreign Language: A Prophet

  • 6 1-17-2010 at 12:29 pm

    James D. said...

    I know a lot of people don’t like the film, but I thought everyone was impressed with her work as Julia Child. I am a bit stunned.

  • 7 1-17-2010 at 12:32 pm

    Travis said...

    Here are my predictions:

  • 8 1-17-2010 at 12:33 pm

    Travis said...

    Oops. That didn’t work.

    Let’s try this again:
    http://magnifyinglass.wordpress.com/2010/01/17/golden-globe-predictions/

  • 9 1-17-2010 at 12:35 pm

    Me. said...

    I already posted them but here they are:

    Picture (Drama): Inglourious Basterds
    Actor (Drama): George Clooney – Up in the Air
    Actress (Drama): Sandra Bullock – The Blind Side
    Picture (M/C): Julie & Julia
    Actor (M/C): Matt Damon – The Informant!
    Actress (M/C): Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
    Directing: Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
    Screenplay: Quentin Tarantino – Inglourious Basterds
    Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
    Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique – Precious
    Score: Avatar
    Song: The Weary Kind – Crazy Heart
    Animated Film: Up
    Foreign Language Film: The White Ribbon

    BTW, I saw The White Ribbon yesterday. WHAT A GREAT FILM.

  • 10 1-17-2010 at 12:36 pm

    Another Al said...

    If the HFPA don’t award Avatar, and it sweeps the Kodak, they confine themselves to irrelevancy.

  • 11 1-17-2010 at 12:37 pm

    Another Al said...

    Guy, please justify It’s Complicated being a “should win”

  • 12 1-17-2010 at 12:42 pm

    Loyal said...

    Motion Picture, Drama
    Avatar
    Alt: Up in the Air

    Motion Picture, Comedy/Musical
    Nine
    Alt: Julie & Julia

    Actress, Drama
    Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side
    Alt: Carey Mulligan, An Education

    Actor, Drama
    George Clooney, Up in the Air
    Alt: Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

    Actor Comedy/Musical
    Robert Downey Jr., Sherlock Holmes
    Alt: Daniel Day Lewis, Nine

    Actress, Comedy
    Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
    Alt: Marion Cotillard, Nine

    Director
    James Cameron, Avatar
    Alt: Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

    Best Supporting Actress
    Mo’nique, Precious
    Alt: Penelope Cruz, Nine

    Supporting Actor
    Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds
    Alt: Woody Harrelson, The Messenger

    Screenplay
    Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds
    Alt: Jason Reitman & Sheldon Turner, Up in the Air

    Original Score
    James Horner, Avatar
    Alt: Michael Giacchino, Up

    Foreign Language Film
    The White Ribbon
    Alt: Un Prophete

    Original Song
    “I See You,” Avatar
    Alt: “Cinema Italiano,” Nine

  • 13 1-17-2010 at 12:42 pm

    Chad Hartigan said...

    I haven’t seen “It’s Complicated” but in Guy’s defense, all the other films in that category are straight-up awful.

  • 14 1-17-2010 at 12:44 pm

    Theoriginal.andrew said...

    You picked Julia Roberts just to annoy Meryl Streep fans, didn’t you? I think that is a childish attitute, and sorry to be honest, but the awards nominated Streep not her fans.

  • 15 1-17-2010 at 12:50 pm

    Satu said...

    Best Picture (Drama)
    Avatar

    Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)
    The Hangover

    Best Director
    Kathryn Bigelow, The Hurt Locker

    Best Actor (Drama)
    Jeff Bridges, Crazy Heart

    Best Actress (Drama)
    Sandra Bullock, The Blind Side

    Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)
    Joseph Gordon-Levitt, 500 Days of Summer

    Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)
    Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia

    Best Supporting Actor
    Christoph Waltz, Inglourious Basterds

    Best Supporting Actress
    Mo’Nique, Precious

    Best Screenplay
    Quentin Tarantino, Inglourious Basterds

    Best Foreign Language Film
    The Prophete

    Best Animated Film
    Up

    Best Original Score
    Up

    Best Original Song
    “The Weary Kind” Crazy Heart

  • 16 1-17-2010 at 1:09 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    James D: I like Streep’s performance in “Julie & Julia” just fine. I don’t have a problem with any of the nominees in that category, actually — although I don’t think any of them desperately demand an award, either.

    Another Al: I was more entertained by “It’s Complicated” than the other four nominees … is that justification enough? And to echo Chad’s comment, this is an embarrassingly feeble category.

    The Original Andrew: I think it’s rather a childish attitude to assume I’m being disingenuous simply because you disagree with me, but there you are.

  • 17 1-17-2010 at 1:11 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    Also, if I was so hell-bent on aggravating Streep’s fans, why would I choose her film for Best Picture?

  • 18 1-17-2010 at 1:17 pm

    aspect ratio said...

    Best Picture (Drama): The Hurt Locker
    Best Picture (Comedy): Julie & Julia
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow – The Hurt Locker
    Best Actor (Drama): Jeff Bridges – Crazy Heart
    Best Actor (Comedy): Matt Damon – The Informant!
    Best Actress (Drama): Carey Mulligan – An Education
    Best Actress (Comedy): Meryl Streep – Julie & Julia
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz – Inglourious Basterds
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique – Precious
    Best Screenplay: Inglourious Basterds
    Best Original Song: “The Weary Kind” – Crazy Heart
    Best Original Score: Avatar
    Best Foreign Language Film: A Prophet
    Best Animated Film: Up

    I don’t really feel Avatar winning Best Picture here. To me it feels like the Golden Globes are far less likely to go for a film like Avatar than the BFCA critics, and it didn’t even win with the them.

  • 19 1-17-2010 at 1:25 pm

    Dario said...

    (will/should/not even nominated – if any)

    Film, drama — Avatar/Avatar
    Film, comedy — Nine/It’s Complicated
    Direction — Bigelow/Bigelow
    Writing — Tarantino/Boal
    Actress, drama — Bullock/Bullock
    Actor, drama — Bridges/Firth
    Actress, comedy — Streep in ‘Julia’/Streep in ‘Complicated’
    Actor, comedy — Damon/Gordon-Levitt
    Actress, supporting — Mo’Nique/Mo’Nique/Jane Lynch in ‘Julie and Julia’
    Actor, supporting — Waltz/Waltz/Aaron Wolff in ‘A Serious Man’
    Film, animated — Up/Fantastic Mr. Fox
    Film, foreign — Broken Embraces/White Ribbon/I Killed My Mother
    Music — Horner/Korzeniowski/Christopher Young for ‘Drag me to Hell’

  • 20 1-17-2010 at 1:31 pm

    Justin said...

    There are so many categories that could go multiple ways that it’s hard to predict. Unlike last year, when it was pick Slumdog for whatever category it was in.

  • 21 1-17-2010 at 1:31 pm

    voland said...

    Best Picture (Drama)
    Inglourious Basterds

    Best Picture (Musical or Comedy)
    (500) Days of Summer

    Best Director
    Kathrin Bigelow

    Best Actor (Drama)
    Jeff Bridges

    Best Actress (Drama)
    Carey Mulligan

    Best Actor (Musical or Comedy)
    Matt Damon

    Best Actress (Musical or Comedy)
    Meryl Streep

    Best Supporting Actor
    Christoph Waltz

    Best Supporting Actress
    Mo’Nique

    Best Screenplay
    Quentin Tarantino

    Best Foreign Language Film
    The White Ribbon

    Best Animated Film
    Up

    Best Original Score
    Up

    Best Original Song
    The Weary Kind – Crazy Heart

  • 22 1-17-2010 at 1:53 pm

    Michael said...

    This is the first year where I literally don’t care how each award turns out at both the globes and the oscars. Not b/c I didn’t like the movies, it is actually the opposite – there are so many films/nominees in each category that I either liked or loved that I don’t care which way it turns out. Which is a nice change from last year where I couldn’t stand Slumdog and had to sit there and watch it win everything and was so bored and annoyed the whole time. I only wish people who have won before more than once to not win again, only b/c its more fun when someone new and young wins a big award, or some veteran who has always been overlooked finally gets their due. I can’t wait for the show tonight!

    Oh and Guy, I like your predictions just fine, I can’t wait to see how many you get right. I am not going to post my predictions b/c I don’t like to have it out there and everyone know that I was off haha, but I am glad others are so brave b/c it is fun to compare later.

  • 23 1-17-2010 at 1:58 pm

    Nigel Bridgeman said...

    Hey Guy, quit it with that opinion thing you’ve got going on. Sheesh. What’s the story?

  • 24 1-17-2010 at 2:18 pm

    Ben said...

    The Hurt Locker and Mulligan have no chance tonight. THL has only three nods, and no film has ever won with such few nominations, and the globes are a star struck group who like going for more succesful films so Mulligan won’t win either

  • 25 1-17-2010 at 2:24 pm

    Michael W. said...

    I have accepted that Avatar could win here. It makes no sense that the HFPA would give it to a film like this, but considering the amount of money it has mad worldwide, I guess it’s fitting that the Foreign press would give it this honor.

    So I’m ready for an Avatar/Bullock combo. Hell, it’s better if that scenario happens tonight than at the Oscars!

  • 26 1-17-2010 at 2:31 pm

    Ben said...

    James Cameron will win Best Director as well, he’s a celebrity director, Bigelow isn’t.

  • 27 1-17-2010 at 2:45 pm

    Michael O. said...

    The Hurt Locker is the underdog tonight. I think it can take Best Picture and Best Director.

  • 28 1-17-2010 at 2:53 pm

    Chris138 said...

    I see the competition for Best Picture and Best Director being between Avatar and The Hurt Locker. I’m rooting for The Hurt Locker, but anything’s possible with Avatar, especially after it’s weekend numbers in the box office.

  • 29 1-17-2010 at 2:54 pm

    Jim T said...

    Guy, although I liked Nine and I haven’t seen It’s Complicated, I’m glad you chose the latter instead of any of the 3 other films.

    By the way, you prefer Mulligan from the drama nominees. Did you see Last Station? And if so, any thoughts on the film and the performances? Excuse me, if you’ve already spoken about it.

    And, yes, Coraline was better than Up. I kind of feel weird that so many people love that movie while I thought it was boring!

  • 30 1-17-2010 at 3:01 pm

    Jake D said...

    I think it’s going to be Up in the Air, Bullock, Gordon-Levitt, Streep, Clooney, Mo’Nique, and Waltz.

    And I’m actively rooting against Matt Damon in The Informant.

  • 31 1-17-2010 at 3:10 pm

    NoSabu said...

    Yuck, Guy, your Globe going to Julia Roberts over Meryl Streep disgusts me.

  • 32 1-17-2010 at 3:14 pm

    NoSabu said...

    Unfortunately, Meryl is currently losing the PR campaign to Sandra Bullock by a wide margin. If she wants to beat Bullock at the Oscars, she’s going to have to REALLY step it up.

    For Meryl even to have a chance at an Oscar, I think it is in her best interest just to go ahead and skip the globes tonight and fly straight down to Haiti. There, via satellite, she can except her award amidst the rubble, and while holding a Haitian baby, Meryl can announce that she has just donated TWO MILLION DOLLARS to the Haiti relief effort. Top that shit, Bullock. No Oscar for you! Even Clooney’s Haiti telethon pales in comparison.

    What’s that, Gabourey Sidibe? You want to donate a headline-grabbing sum of money to Haiti , but can’t? Your a poor black girl from Harlem and you don’t have the funds to publicly donate a million dollars to Haiti. Aww… poor thing. Maybe you can have a rich white woman take you under her wing like that Sandra Bullock movie, “The Blind Side”. Once that happens, I’m sure everything will work itself out.

  • 33 1-17-2010 at 3:23 pm

    Erik 815 said...

    Guy, i’ll stand up for your pick for Roerts, I loved both the film and the performance(s). Whoda thunk she can steal an entire scene by sitting still and looking extremely pissed?

    Wouldn’t pick Streep in It’s Complicated as my runner up, though, but clearly you liked that film a lot. I felt that film belonged more to Baldwin and to a lesser extent to Krasinski. Streep was good, but she didn’t get that much to do really. If you’re gonna write a movie where Meryl Streep gets high with Steve Martin I just expect a little more (though I shouldn’t forget it’s a Nancy Meyers film, and in that respect it does what it does quite well).

  • 34 1-17-2010 at 3:36 pm

    Miguel Gallego said...

    Hey, I’m from Spain and I don’t know where I can watch the globes online. Can you tell me a website??

  • 35 1-17-2010 at 3:59 pm

    murdock said...

    Avatar, Hangover, Bigelow, Clooney, Bullock, Damon, Streep, Waltz, Mo’Nique, Tarantino(Screenplay)

  • 36 1-17-2010 at 4:05 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    To all the people saying only big-name stars have a chance at the Globes, I’d just like to remind you of Sally Hawkins last year, Geoffrey Rush and Brenda Blethyn in 1997, Hilary Swank and Janet McTeer in 2000, Julie Walters in 1984…

    I’m not saying I don’t understand the factors in Bullock’s favour — and yes, the HFPA do often like their stars — but no hard and fast rules rules apply here.

    Jim T: I feel I’ve been negative enough lately, so I kept quiet on “The Last Station.” Suffice to say I don’t much like “The Last Station” or anyone in it save for James McAvoy.

  • 37 1-17-2010 at 4:09 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    Miguel: Try http://www.unstream.tv

  • 38 1-17-2010 at 4:15 pm

    SHAAAARK said...

    I really hope Julie & Julia pulls out a win in Comedy/Musical, as it’s the only worthy nominee. Mind you, I haven’t seen Nine or It’s Complicated, but people whose opinions I trust say they are both among the worst films of the year. The Hangover is also a lousy film, but people love it because it has some funny jokes, and next to some of the comedy shit coming out, it looks like fucking Shakespeare. But there is no evidence in the film that Todd Phillips has any understanding of film craft beyond point and shoot, not to mention the film itself is disturbingly misogynist and racist against Asians (Ken Jeong should never get another acting gig).
    Oh, and (500) Days of Summer is pleasant enough, but it had a remarkably anti-charismatic performance from Zooey Deschanel that really brought the quality of the film down significantly. Gordon-Levitt’s performance is the only thing worthy of recognition from the film.
    If it were up to me, the Comedy/Musical nominees would be:
    The Informant!
    In the Loop
    A Serious Man
    Julie & Julia
    I Love You, Man

  • 39 1-17-2010 at 4:37 pm

    Miguel Gallego said...

    Thank you, Guy

  • 40 1-17-2010 at 9:25 pm

    Another Al said...

    Appalling tipping my friend.

  • 41 1-18-2010 at 3:15 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Haha, don’t I know it.

  • 42 1-18-2010 at 8:27 am

    Another Al said...

    No sweat.

    You’ll fight back on March 7.

  • 43 1-18-2010 at 11:32 pm

    JOEL said...

    I stopped reading when you said Its Compliated will and should win. That film was appalling.