First stab at winner predictions, part 2: Yours and mine

Posted by · 9:35 am · November 10th, 2009

Christoph Waltz in Inglourious BasterdsSeeing as Kris was (delete as appropriate) brave/stupid/psychic/smart enough to predict who will win the Oscars four months ahead of the ceremony (and three weeks earlier than he did last year), I figured I’d follow up, as I did last year, with my own foolhardy guesses too.

Last year, Kris kicked my ass at this particular game, correctly guessing 13 out 21 categories, and forecasting “Slumdog” fever while I was still on the “Milk” train. (Ironically, the lone “Slumdog Millionaire” win I predicted — Best Song — was one Kris missed.) For my part, I called wins for Sean Penn and Kate Winslet (for the wrong film, of course) … though that hardly qualifies as visionary, does it?

This year, however, we are of a like mind in most of the top categories, though we part ways considerably further down the list. If you’re looking to take any of our predictions to the bank, stick with Kris. But, you know, a different perspective never hurt anyone.

My best (or worst) guesses after the cut, followed by your collective prediction culled from yesterday’s comment thread.

Best Picture: “Precious”
Best Director: Lee Daniels, “Precious”
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Gabourey Sidibe, “Precious”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Precious”
Best Original Screenplay: “Up”
Best Art Direction: “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Costume Design: “Bright Star”
Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
Best Music (Original Song): “The Weary Kind” from “Crazy Heart”
Best Sound Editing: “District 9”
Best Sound Mixing: “Nine”
Best Visual Effects: “District 9”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “Letters to Father Jacob”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”

Meanwhile, you guys differ considerably in some crucial respects. Though “Precious” led when we asked you on the weekend, yesterday you clearly weren’t feeling it as much. “Up in the Air” (a film I’m still not sure has enough ‘oomph’ for the win) leads the Best Picture count, while Gabourey Sidibe trails behind not only Meryl Streep, but Carey Mulligan too. (Only three of you, by the way, are brave enough to predict Streep for “It’s Complicated.”)

If your (and our) predictions are to be believed, Mo’Nique, “Up” and “The Cove” may as well collect their Oscars now, while “Up in the Air” and “The Hurt Locker” should secure comfy wins in the writing categories. Ditto “Nine” in the cinematography and design races, and “Avatar” for its score. I need convincing.

Closer races do exist though — indeed, you guys couldn’t make your minds up for Best Director and Best Film Editing, while Best Foreign Language Film was decided on a single vote. Let’s come back to this in March and see who’s smiling.

Best Picture: “Up in the Air”
Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow, “The Hurt Locker” and Jason Reitman, “Up in the Air” (tie)
Best Actor: Jeff Bridges, “Crazy Heart”
Best Actress: Meryl Streep, “Julie & Julia”
Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air”
Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
Best Art Direction: “Nine”
Best Cinematography: “Nine”
Best Costume Design: “Nine”
Best Film Editing: “Avatar” and “The Hurt Locker” (tie)
Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
Best Music (Original Score): “Avatar”
Best Music (Original Song): “I See In Color” from “Precious”
Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
Best Foreign Language Film: “The White Ribbon”
Best Documentary Feature: “The Cove”




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69 responses so far

  • 1 11-10-2009 at 4:50 pm

    JAB said...

    Kris & Guy:
    I just looked at the FYC site for Brothers, and apparently Gyllenhaal and Portman are both being campaigned for supporting, with Maguire getting lead. Think that helps any of their chances at nominations?

  • 2 11-10-2009 at 4:51 pm

    JAB said...

    clicked submit before i was done…
    I think it helps JG out a lot, the supporting category is full of mostly “meh” contenders, but I gotta say I think Portman is screeeeeewed. Supporting Actress is LOADED!

  • 3 11-10-2009 at 4:53 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    I meant to update the contenders section, but yeah, that is so. And I hear Maguire is pretty bad in the film, but the other two get some decent notices so maybe it’ll help after all. Something to keep an eye on.

  • 4 11-10-2009 at 4:58 pm

    Jim T said...

    What if both Gyllenhaals get nominated? It would be cool.

  • 5 11-10-2009 at 4:59 pm

    Al said...

    Opps, Apologies go out to Guy and Kris. When you said Kris predicted 13 out of 21 I thought you meant in terms of final predictions, not early November predictions. My bad.

  • 6 11-10-2009 at 8:33 pm

    charles goodman said...

    i really think that adam lambert’s theme song for “2012” -“time for miracles” has a good shot at a nomination for best orginal song-its briliant for a disaster flick in my opinion. it also has a really sad backstory to the song. it was written by Alain Johannes and his partner Natasha Shneider before Shneider died of cancer in 2008.

  • 7 11-10-2009 at 8:34 pm

    daveylow said...

    I would really be shocked if Precious won the direction award, considering even those who like the film finds faults in the direction.

    I really think it’s too early to call Precious the Best Picture winner. Some other big films have to open.

  • 8 11-10-2009 at 8:38 pm

    daveylow said...

    I love the way someone has written that An Education has been forgotten already. The film is in limited release. It’s going to be nominated for awards and then more people will see it.

  • 9 11-10-2009 at 8:50 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Yeah, November only, Al. I had a personal best 21/24 at the end of things last year.

  • 10 11-11-2009 at 2:31 am

    Kate Winslet said...

    I am still not understanding why people don’t seem to understand that Meryl will win best actress in 2010. I don’t care if Oprah throws herself on stage to prevent it, or puts out eight special covers, you are not going to see Meryl denied again on her 16th nomination. Look at the history of the Oscars. Look to another woman named Kate.

    Time for tea. Toodles.

  • 11 11-13-2009 at 3:54 pm

    Holden said...

    This is how I see it…

    General Consensus: Kathryn Bigelow “The Hurt Locker” or Jason Rietman “Up in the Air”
    Who Should Win?: While many will say Rietman should win, he simply be credited so early. It’s like saying Nirvana is better than The Beatles or The Who. While Nirvana was new and innovative, they simply didn’t put out enough material to merit such a high rank. Rietman will most certainly be nominated, but I don’t know if he’ll win. Bigelow is in the same boat. She directed a wildly critical smash, and war films often win or are nominated in this category (Saving Private Ryan, Black Hawk Down, Platoon, etc.) But who is Bigelow? Does she have any other notable pieces? She doesn’t have enough for her. Though as a side note, the voters should look at what the directors put out this year instead of the past. I’m rooting for either Rietman or Bigelow.
    Who Will Most Likely Up Them? Rob Marshall (Nine) is pretty overrated, but the academy doesn’t at all mind brown nosing. In contrast, I wouldn’t mind if Peter Jackson takes home another statue for directing The Lovely Bones, though I actually believe he’s got a better shot in the Screenplay category.
    Who Will Win? Tough question. You can make a case for anyone. If I have to choose one person, it would be Bigelow, but not by much. We still have to see Up in the Air. It could be like Changeling last year. Sure, it gets great festival buzz, but then does mediocre with the critics when it hits stateside.

  • 12 11-13-2009 at 3:54 pm

    Holden said...

    On directors…

    This is how I see it…

    General Consensus: Kathryn Bigelow “The Hurt Locker” or Jason Rietman “Up in the Air”
    Who Should Win?: While many will say Rietman should win, he simply be credited so early. It’s like saying Nirvana is better than The Beatles or The Who. While Nirvana was new and innovative, they simply didn’t put out enough material to merit such a high rank. Rietman will most certainly be nominated, but I don’t know if he’ll win. Bigelow is in the same boat. She directed a wildly critical smash, and war films often win or are nominated in this category (Saving Private Ryan, Black Hawk Down, Platoon, etc.) But who is Bigelow? Does she have any other notable pieces? She doesn’t have enough for her. Though as a side note, the voters should look at what the directors put out this year instead of the past. I’m rooting for either Rietman or Bigelow.
    Who Will Most Likely Up Them? Rob Marshall (Nine) is pretty overrated, but the academy doesn’t at all mind brown nosing. In contrast, I wouldn’t mind if Peter Jackson takes home another statue for directing The Lovely Bones, though I actually believe he’s got a better shot in the Screenplay category.
    Who Will Win? Tough question. You can make a case for anyone. If I have to choose one person, it would be Bigelow, but not by much. We still have to see Up in the Air. It could be like Changeling last year. Sure, it gets great festival buzz, but then does mediocre with the critics when it hits stateside.

  • 13 11-13-2009 at 4:01 pm

    Holden said...

    Best Picture: The Hurt Locker
    Best Director: Kathryn Bigelow “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Actor: (This is a tough category, but…) Colin Firth “A Single Man”
    Best Actress: Carey Mulligan “An Education
    Best Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglourious Basterds”
    Best Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious: Based on the Novel “Push” by Sapphire”
    Best Adapted Screenplay: “Up in the Air” (I think this is where Rietman will get his due.)
    Best Original Screenplay: “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Art Direction: “Nine”
    Best Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Costume Design: “Nine”
    Best Film Editing: “The Hurt Locker”
    Best Makeup: “Star Trek”
    Best Music (Original Score): “Up”
    Best Music (Original Song): “Meet Me On the Equinox” The Twilight Saga: New Moon (for the record, I believe Twilight is crap, but this song is very good.)
    Best Sound Editing: “Avatar”
    Best Sound Mixing: “Avatar”
    Best Visual Effects: “Avatar”
    Best Animated Feature Film: “Up”
    Best Foreign Language Film: “A Prophet (France)”
    Best Documentary Feature: “Capitalism: A Love Story”

  • 14 11-13-2009 at 4:12 pm

    Dennis said...

    Picture: Up in the Air
    Director: Kathryn Bigelow “The Hurt Locker”
    Actor: George Clooney “Up in the Air”
    Actress: Gabourey Sidbe “Precious”
    Supporting Actor: Christoph Waltz, “Inglorious Basterds”
    Supporting Actress: Mo’Nique, “Precious”
    Adapted Screenplay: Up in the Air
    Original Screenplay: The Hurt Locker
    Art Direction: Nine
    Cinematography: “The Hurt Locker”
    Costume Design: Bright Star
    Film Editing: Avatar
    Make Up: Star Trek
    Original Score: Up
    Original Song: “All is Love” Where the Wild Things Are
    Sound Editing: District 9
    Sound Mixing: Avatar
    Visual Effects: Avatar
    Animated Film: Up
    Foreign Language Film: A Prophet
    Documentary: Food Inc.

  • 15 11-13-2009 at 4:22 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    “But who is Bigelow? Does she have any other notable pieces?”

    Yeah, I’d say “Strange Days,” “Near Dark” and “Point Break” are all pretty damn notable. If you don’t know who she is, that’s your loss.

  • 16 11-14-2009 at 6:44 am

    Holden said...

    I’m sorry, I just didn’t know what other movies she’s done. I hadn’t heard of her until “The Hurt Locker.”

  • 17 11-14-2009 at 6:54 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Dig into her past work, then — you’ll be pleasantly surprised. Bigelow has been widely regarded as something of a trailblazer for women in Hollywood since the 1980s.

  • 18 11-14-2009 at 2:12 pm

    JR said...

    Has anyone seen “The Lovely Bones”? Even from only seeing the trailer, my gut tells me that it could be a serious contender, even in the Year of Precious. The casting is amazing – Ronan, Tucci, Sarandon (if anyone’s read the book, spot-on), Weisz, Imperioli, even Wahlberg. Tucci – taken along with his work in J&J – seems a shoo-in for Supporting. If the Jackson/Walsh team are on top of their formidable game, I’d look out.

  • 19 12-11-2009 at 8:11 pm

    Andrew said...

    bright star should come close in cinematography, art direction and costume. hopefully a best actress nom, although i wish for BP and director