No Off the Carpet column this week

Posted by · 8:39 am · October 12th, 2009

A morning screening and various other things have me a bit out of pocket, so no column, but predictions have been tidied up in the sidebar.  Plus, we went ahead and added a set of documentary short predictions, now that the shortlist is out.




→ 21 Comments Tags: | Filed in: Daily

21 responses so far

  • 1 10-12-2009 at 9:16 am

    The Other James D. said...

    Awesome. What are you seeing this morning?

  • 2 10-12-2009 at 11:19 am

    AmericanRequiem said...

    im down with your predictions for animated feauture, but i think it will be mary and max vs fantastic mr fox for the last spot. also the informant isnt likely to get a best original score nomination, Brian Eno for the lovely bones has to have something special up his sleeve for all those heaven sequences

  • 3 10-12-2009 at 11:43 am

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Marvin Hamlisch. People like the work. No reason to bet against it (and it’s a really weak year).

    I don’t think the animators are going to embrace Fox. Expecially in the wake of this directing-from-afar mini-controversy thing.

  • 4 10-12-2009 at 11:54 am

    AmericanRequiem said...

    whats it a weak year for kris?

  • 5 10-12-2009 at 12:04 pm

    j said...

    Of the dozen most likely contenders, the half in December are all traditional white-guy-directed. While in non-December, we have 3 female-directed, 1 black-guy-directed, 1 animated… A Serious Man is more traditional, but 1 comedy has won in the last 30+ years and only once in the last half-century or so has a directing team won for BD. You could throw in Amelia there too despite lack of buzz since it still seems Oscar-y in subject matter/production, and that’s female-directed. And of course there’s female-directed Julie & Julia, which I’m feeling more like might actually be a wildcard nominee.

    Call it, say, the Winslet Effect. Last year she dragged her film into BP (well, the Weinsteins too…) which basically cemented the certainty of her win. Now this isn’t often such a big factor but it is that it’s a HIGHLY unusually solid slate of pictures (for this decade) in which Best Actress contenders star this year, paired with ten nominations, that makes this important. Let’s say some combination of Education/Mulligan, Bright Star/Cornish, Sidibe/Precious, Cotillard/Nine, Farmiga/Up in the Air, and Ronan/Lovely Bones gets nominated. Won’t it look weird if Streep wins despite being the star in the solitary one the Academy doesn’t like enough to put in their T10? It’s typical this decade that of the 4 acting categories, Lead Actress’ films are the weakest; with so many frontrunners in films that critics embrace and/or seem likely to embrace, I can completely see AMPAS voting for her film to help her chances. Or in It’s Complicated I guess…also by a woman, this decade’s female hitmaker.

  • 6 10-12-2009 at 12:08 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    For score, Req. IMO.

  • 7 10-12-2009 at 12:19 pm

    AmericanRequiem said...

    ya i guess your right kris, but tree of life(if it makes it) and lovely bones probly avatar and from what ive heard of the road it has beautiful music

  • 8 10-12-2009 at 1:35 pm

    Jester said...

    The new Annie winning Wallace and Gromit film is a lock for a nomination (and probably win) in the best animated short category. Why delay the inevitable on that one?

  • 9 10-12-2009 at 1:54 pm

    david said...

    If Avatar has any story substance at all, and receives merely good reviews, I think it will crack the top ten.

    I hope your right about Mary and Max, but I just don’t see Miyazaki getting left out of the mix (especially if the category does get five nominations). He’s just too respected in the business (like Pixar) to not get a nod.

    Matt Damon getting nominated twice??
    I’m wagering not, but we’ll see. I don’t think it’s ever smart to count out Daniel Day Lewis…the man just gives an Oscar caliber performance every time out.

    I still have the feeling that The Road will be more of a player then some might think. It may not necessarily make the Best Picture lineup but I think it will show up in some other categories.

  • 10 10-12-2009 at 2:02 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Why is the Matt Damon thing suddenly surprising? He’s been listed as a predicted double nominee pretty much all year long.

    I dropped Day-Lewis last week for Firth. I sense weakness, plus both are TWC pushes, but we’ll see.

  • 11 10-12-2009 at 5:06 pm

    The Other James D. said...

    So how about that screening….?

  • 12 10-12-2009 at 5:28 pm

    Bryan said...

    A weak year for score unless you’re Alexandre Desplat: Cheri, Julie and Julia, A Prophet, Coco avant Chanel, New Moon, Fantastic Mr. Fox. He’s got to be nominated for something, at least for the fact that he scored six (!) major films in 2009.

  • 13 10-12-2009 at 5:30 pm

    Bryan said...

    You can listen to samples of Desplat’s score for Fantastic Mr. Fox here (http://www.amazon.co.uk/Fantastic-Mr-Fox-Original-Soundtrack/dp/B002P7HYUU).

    I think this could be it for him; stretching his boundaries but still with his trademark style.

  • 14 10-12-2009 at 6:00 pm

    Loyal said...

    If Depp can get nominated for Sweeney Todd, it stands to reason DDL can get in for Nine.

  • 15 10-12-2009 at 6:11 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    I didn’t say it didn’t stand to reason. I’m just sensing a shift toward the stronger female roles. It’s hardly a unique view. I believe Nat Rogers has been thinking along these lines most of the year.

  • 16 10-12-2009 at 6:22 pm

    The Other James D. said...

    I’m with Kris. DDL is my fave actor, bar none. But I can easily see him being overshadowed, with Cotillard, Cruz, and Dench stealing his spotlight. Plus, with both Firth and Plummer due for their first nominations, if all goes well (and it better), then it’s feasible.

    Perhaps neither Damon nor DDL will get in. There’s always another returning nominee: Hal Holbrook. If critics consider it his “Venus”, I can see him getting SAG and Oscar noms, after being snubbed at the Globes.

  • 17 10-12-2009 at 6:24 pm

    The Other James D. said...

    I should mention that I, personally, have Renner in place of Damon, matching up 4/5 with IC.com’s list. He’ll need the critics, of course. I’ve been wondering lately though if the critics might shift towards Ben Foster though…The Messenger has me pumped for some reason.

  • 18 10-13-2009 at 8:44 am

    Sawyer said...

    I find it interesting that you have BP, BD, BA and BSA nominations for Invictus, and nothing else. No screenplay and no tech noms. If Invictus is a Best Picture contender, I think Eastwood & Co. would easily find themselves in the Adapted Screenplay and Editing categories, and maybe Costume and Cinematography.

  • 19 10-13-2009 at 8:55 am

    The Other James D. said...

    Adapted Screenplay is overcrowded with ace contenders. Hell, “The Last Station” is probably the next most likely to get in (or for me, more likely than “The Lovely Bones”, as I’m anticipating the possibility of TLB being this year’s “Revolutionary Road” mega-snub).

    Editing seems plausible, but I think Costume Design is going way overboard. Cinematography, ehh, just doesn’t seem strong enough for that. Really, it seems more like this year’s “Frost/Nixon”, at best, than anything else.

  • 20 10-13-2009 at 9:13 am

    Sawyer said...

    I’m not saying it can’t happen, but it just seems unlikely if Invictus is a critical smash, that the Oscar love would only stretch to the Director and Acting categories.

  • 21 10-13-2009 at 9:22 am

    The Other James D. said...

    Well, that is true. But it doesn’t seem like the critics would salivate that much over a biopic that centers around the more light aspects of Mandela, rather than the brutal aspects. In addition, biopics usually get a medium amount of noms: pic, director, 1 acting or sometimes 2, screenplay, and 1 tech. (Except for “Milk”, which was transcendent of a typical biopic.) And even if “Invictus” is a smash, I can’t see which screenplay would be edged out in favor. “The Last Station” seems like a more promising biopic.

    I think for many, the “Invictus” predictions are a formality until we see a trailer or have early feedback. God, I hate Eastwood’s release manipulation. If your movie can’t survive early buzz, then it wasn’t strong enough to begin with.