It slipped my mind to update the Oscar nomination predictions I made in early June, which were looking sorrily outdated with a scant 5 Best Picture nominees. (What a difference a month makes!)
Anyway, if only to get with the 10-strong program, it was time for a midsummer tidy, so my updated predictions can be found here.
Aside from doubling my Best Picture ranks, I’ve limited myself to mild tweaks elsewhere — after all, with most of the big players still unseen, I’m as clueless now as I was before. As I said back in June, I believe in having fun at this early stage in the game, so I’ve retained a few wildcard inclusions and omissions.
Admittedly, the expansion of the top category make said snubs even more far-fetched, but I’m sticking to my largely unfounded hunch that the voters will groove to softer, more independent fare (“Bright Star,” “An Education”) this year, while something like “Invictus” may find itself among the critical casualties of the season.
(Meanwhile, to compensate for my neglect of the studios, I took a last-minute punt on Nancy Meyers’ December Meryl Streep vehicle finding favor with the Academy’s middle-aged middlebrow. If it takes off with the public, a combination of goodwill and short memories could have terrifying results.)
And I’ve finely gone onto that slender limb and predicted three female nominees for Best Director. Why not? What’s summer without a bit of silliness, after all? If it’s common sense you want, that’s what Kris is for.
Comments
24 responses to “Catching up with the ten”
I know not having a script never hurt Mike Leigh but I think the improv-nature of Humpday is too obvious for the Academy to bite.
I don’t disagree. But where the hell are the Best Original Screenplay contenders? I can’t find ’em.
I like the 3 women in best director, and honestly it doesn’t seem that far fetched considering the reception for An Education and The Hurt Locker. Not sold on Campion making it though. And 3 young newcomers/breakthroughs in Best Actress, while a nice idea to picture, seems impossible.
Funny People and The Invention of Lying have a shot at a screenplay nomination, Guy.
Nancy Meyers’ latest film is going to be called Something Good.
Guy, what terrifying results do you refer to the Nancy Meyers project?
I find the thought of a Nancy Meyers film getting a Best Picture nod (though, admittedly, it’s not a thought anyone else is entertaining) pretty terrifying — that’s all I mean. Unfair to say that sight unseen, I know.
James: Thanks for the tip. Awful title … she’s really attempting “Something’s Gotta Give Redux,” isn’t she?
Bill: Perhaps. I did consider “Funny People.” But the Academy is awfully resistant to mainstream comedy.
Of course, “The Hurt Locker” is an obvious prediction, given that I’ve predicted a healthy showing for the film, but I don’t know if it’s the kind of achievement the writers’ branch would really warm to.
I guess I just have a weird feeling about “Humpday.”
My Predictions!!!:
Best Picture:
Invictus
Nine [Will win]
The Road
The Hurt Locker [Dark Horse to win/Should win]
An Education
Ameila
Precious
Public Enemies
Up!
Julie & Julia
The Informant!, Precious and Bright Star [possible nominees]
Best Director:
Clint Eastwood, Invictus
Michael Mann, Public Enemies
Rob Marshall, Nine [Will win]
Katherine Bigelow, The Hurt Locker [Should win]
Mia Nair, Amelia [Dark Horse to win]
John Hillcoat, The Road; Jane Campion, Bright Star; Lee Daniels, Precious; Steven Soderbergh, The Informant! [possible nominees]
Best Actor:
Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker [Dark Horse to win/Should win]
Morgan Freeman, Invictus [Will win]
Viggo Mortensen, The Road
Matt Damon, The Informant!
Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine
Patton Oswalt, Big Fan and John Malkovich, Disgrace [possible nominees]
Best Actress:
Carey Mulligan, An Education
Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
Hilary Swank, Amelia
Tilda Swinton, Julia [Dark Horse to win/Should win]
Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri [Will win]
Amy Adams, Julie & Julia; Helen Mirren, The Tempest; Abbie Cornish, Bright Star [possible nominees]
Best Supporting Actor:
Matt Damon, Invictus [Will win]
Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds [Dark Horse to win/Should Win]
Alfred Molina, An Education
Richard Gere, Amelia
Jamie Foxx, The Soloist
Richard Kind, A Serious Man; Kenneth Brannagh, The Boat That Rocked; Ben Kingsley, Shutter Island [possible nominees]
Best Supporting Actress:
Judi Dench, Nine
Mo’nique, Precious [Will win]
Emma Thompson, An Education [Should win]
Patricia Clarkson, Whatever Works [Dark Horse to win]
Kathy Bates, Cheri
Leslie Mann, Funny People; Marion Cotillard, Public Enemies; Sophia Loren, Nine [possible nominees]
Best Original Screenplay:
A Serious Man
Up! [Will win]
The Hurt Locker [Should Win]
Away We Go
Funny People [Dark Horse to win]
Bright Star; Whatever Works; The Boat That Rocked [possible nominees]
Best Adapted Screenplay:
Precious
An Education [Will win/Should Win]
Nine
Invictus
Cheri [Dark Horse to win]
The Lovely Bones; Public Enemies; The Road [possible nominees]
I forgot to add Johnny Depp as a possibility for Best Actor for Public Enemies. So there it is.
Hey Guy, how come you predicted Streep for Something Good and not Julie and Julia?
Isn’t Nowhere Boy supposed to be a 2010 release, not 2009?
Your best director choices are PSYCHO…but I kinda like them, though…
and p.s., what about (500) Days of Summer for best original screenplay? it’s getting great reviews…couldn’t be more farfetched than Humpday IMHO
Three Women and a Black Gay Man…only in Hollywood. I hope.
I read the script for the Nancy Meyers film and while it is a definite retread of Something’s Gotta Give (and would have been even moreso if the Steve Martin character was cast as a Keanu Reeves type as written), it presents a great showcase for Meryl Streep. I think the finished product will be plagued by comparisons to the Diane Keaton vehicle, but the role gives Meryl a lot to work with. We are treated to glimpses of her sexy/confident/funny/vulnerable sides. If it is warmly received I can definitely see people latching onto that as opposed to the more traditional awards bait offered by Julia Child.
I think both Invictus and Amelia will be critical casualties and The Lovely Bones will get Rev Road like reviews. But I seriously think the Academy will suck up to Nine, it will likely be nominated in every category it is eligible.
And people have been talking about the 5 movies that have missed directing slots will be filler. Even more concerning will be films that miss a screenplay nomination. How can you possibly win when even the screenplay isn’t nominated? The Hurt Locker’s screenplay will have to be nominated for it to be a serious contender.
Excellent point, red_wine. After all, if a majority of the Best Picture nominees are adapted screenplays (which they usually are in the 5 format), a few films will be there with no screenplay nod.
Now that there’s ten, the nomination will be the reward for A LOT of these. A good 6 or 7 won’t be gunning for the big prize.
Random question that I had as I pondered over your predictions:
It seems that if a Pixar movie is good, nowadays it can guarantee itself five nominations: Screenplay, Sound, Sound Editing, Score, and Animated Feature. Up of course also has a shot at Best Picture now. Would it ever be possible for a Pixar movie (or any other animated film for that matter) to be so well-received that begins to be in contention for such categories as Costume Design, Cinematography, Art Direction, VFX, Makeup, or are they ineligible from such categories since everything is created on a computer?
I don’t think it’s actually possible, but I’m just curious as to what the general opinion is on something like this.
“How can you possibly win when even the screenplay isn’t nominated?”
Ask James Cameron and Robert Wise.
Regina: It’s a December release, so I think it will be fresher in voters’ minds. It all depends on Streep getting good notices and the film taking off with the public — for now, I’m guessing both will happen.
RC: Yes, but you never know with Harvey. Like I said, I’m having a bit of fun.
Hans: Animated films are eligible for art direction — indeed the Guild has nominated Pixar titles before — but the Academy is reluctant to go there. Ditto film editing. As for cinematography, well, the obvious answer is the right one.
Dan: Yeah, I wasn’t expecting “(500) Days” to be so popular. One to keep in mind.
If I remember correctly, Wall-E won an editing award from a particular editors guild last awards season. I read that it’s the first time an animated film has won in it.
@Kyle: Wall-E won the ACE eddie award for original comedy/musical. (slumdog won for dramatic)
@hans: Animated films are eligible for nominations, but most voters still haven’t found the stomach to do so