Catching up with the ten

Posted by · 11:54 am · July 19th, 2009

Abbie Cornish in Bright StarIt slipped my mind to update the Oscar nomination predictions I made in early June, which were looking sorrily outdated with a scant 5 Best Picture nominees. (What a difference a month makes!)

Anyway, if only to get with the 10-strong program, it was time for a midsummer tidy, so my updated predictions can be found here.

Aside from doubling my Best Picture ranks, I’ve limited myself to mild tweaks elsewhere — after all, with most of the big players still unseen, I’m as clueless now as I was before. As I said back in June, I believe in having fun at this early stage in the game, so I’ve retained a few wildcard inclusions and omissions.

Admittedly, the expansion of the top category make said snubs even more far-fetched, but I’m sticking to my largely unfounded hunch that the voters will groove to softer, more independent fare (“Bright Star,” “An Education”) this year, while something like “Invictus” may find itself among the critical casualties of the season.

(Meanwhile, to compensate for my neglect of the studios, I took a last-minute punt on Nancy Meyers’ December Meryl Streep vehicle finding favor with the Academy’s middle-aged middlebrow. If it takes off with the public, a combination of goodwill and short memories could have terrifying results.)

And I’ve finely gone onto that slender limb and predicted three female nominees for Best Director. Why not? What’s summer without a bit of silliness, after all? If it’s common sense you want, that’s what Kris is for.

→ 24 Comments Tags: , , , , | Filed in: Daily

24 responses so far

  • 1 7-19-2009 at 12:18 pm

    Chad Hartigan said...

    I know not having a script never hurt Mike Leigh but I think the improv-nature of Humpday is too obvious for the Academy to bite.

  • 2 7-19-2009 at 12:21 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    I don’t disagree. But where the hell are the Best Original Screenplay contenders? I can’t find ’em.

  • 3 7-19-2009 at 1:07 pm

    andrew said...

    I like the 3 women in best director, and honestly it doesn’t seem that far fetched considering the reception for An Education and The Hurt Locker. Not sold on Campion making it though. And 3 young newcomers/breakthroughs in Best Actress, while a nice idea to picture, seems impossible.

  • 4 7-19-2009 at 1:32 pm

    Bill said...

    Funny People and The Invention of Lying have a shot at a screenplay nomination, Guy.

  • 5 7-19-2009 at 1:37 pm

    James D. said...

    Nancy Meyers’ latest film is going to be called Something Good.

  • 6 7-19-2009 at 2:10 pm

    Markus said...

    Guy, what terrifying results do you refer to the Nancy Meyers project?

  • 7 7-19-2009 at 2:41 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    I find the thought of a Nancy Meyers film getting a Best Picture nod (though, admittedly, it’s not a thought anyone else is entertaining) pretty terrifying — that’s all I mean. Unfair to say that sight unseen, I know.

    James: Thanks for the tip. Awful title … she’s really attempting “Something’s Gotta Give Redux,” isn’t she?

  • 8 7-19-2009 at 2:48 pm

    Guy Lodge said...

    Bill: Perhaps. I did consider “Funny People.” But the Academy is awfully resistant to mainstream comedy.

    Of course, “The Hurt Locker” is an obvious prediction, given that I’ve predicted a healthy showing for the film, but I don’t know if it’s the kind of achievement the writers’ branch would really warm to.

    I guess I just have a weird feeling about “Humpday.”

  • 9 7-19-2009 at 3:38 pm

    El Rocho said...

    My Predictions!!!:

    Best Picture:
    Nine [Will win]
    The Road
    The Hurt Locker [Dark Horse to win/Should win]
    An Education
    Public Enemies
    Julie & Julia

    The Informant!, Precious and Bright Star [possible nominees]

    Best Director:
    Clint Eastwood, Invictus
    Michael Mann, Public Enemies
    Rob Marshall, Nine [Will win]
    Katherine Bigelow, The Hurt Locker [Should win]
    Mia Nair, Amelia [Dark Horse to win]

    John Hillcoat, The Road; Jane Campion, Bright Star; Lee Daniels, Precious; Steven Soderbergh, The Informant! [possible nominees]

    Best Actor:
    Jeremy Renner, The Hurt Locker [Dark Horse to win/Should win]
    Morgan Freeman, Invictus [Will win]
    Viggo Mortensen, The Road
    Matt Damon, The Informant!
    Daniel Day-Lewis, Nine

    Patton Oswalt, Big Fan and John Malkovich, Disgrace [possible nominees]

    Best Actress:
    Carey Mulligan, An Education
    Meryl Streep, Julie & Julia
    Hilary Swank, Amelia
    Tilda Swinton, Julia [Dark Horse to win/Should win]
    Michelle Pfeiffer, Cheri [Will win]

    Amy Adams, Julie & Julia; Helen Mirren, The Tempest; Abbie Cornish, Bright Star [possible nominees]

    Best Supporting Actor:
    Matt Damon, Invictus [Will win]
    Christoph Waltz, Inglorious Basterds [Dark Horse to win/Should Win]
    Alfred Molina, An Education
    Richard Gere, Amelia
    Jamie Foxx, The Soloist

    Richard Kind, A Serious Man; Kenneth Brannagh, The Boat That Rocked; Ben Kingsley, Shutter Island [possible nominees]

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Judi Dench, Nine
    Mo’nique, Precious [Will win]
    Emma Thompson, An Education [Should win]
    Patricia Clarkson, Whatever Works [Dark Horse to win]
    Kathy Bates, Cheri

    Leslie Mann, Funny People; Marion Cotillard, Public Enemies; Sophia Loren, Nine [possible nominees]

    Best Original Screenplay:
    A Serious Man
    Up! [Will win]
    The Hurt Locker [Should Win]
    Away We Go
    Funny People [Dark Horse to win]

    Bright Star; Whatever Works; The Boat That Rocked [possible nominees]

    Best Adapted Screenplay:
    An Education [Will win/Should Win]
    Cheri [Dark Horse to win]

    The Lovely Bones; Public Enemies; The Road [possible nominees]

  • 10 7-19-2009 at 4:21 pm

    El Rocho said...

    I forgot to add Johnny Depp as a possibility for Best Actor for Public Enemies. So there it is.

  • 11 7-19-2009 at 5:16 pm

    Regina said...

    Hey Guy, how come you predicted Streep for Something Good and not Julie and Julia?

  • 12 7-19-2009 at 5:32 pm

    RC of strangeculture said...

    Isn’t Nowhere Boy supposed to be a 2010 release, not 2009?

  • 13 7-19-2009 at 6:14 pm

    Dan said...

    Your best director choices are PSYCHO…but I kinda like them, though…

  • 14 7-19-2009 at 6:18 pm

    Dan said...

    and p.s., what about (500) Days of Summer for best original screenplay? it’s getting great reviews…couldn’t be more farfetched than Humpday IMHO

  • 15 7-19-2009 at 6:49 pm

    Jilpen said...

    Three Women and a Black Gay Man…only in Hollywood. I hope.

  • 16 7-19-2009 at 7:11 pm

    rosengje said...

    I read the script for the Nancy Meyers film and while it is a definite retread of Something’s Gotta Give (and would have been even moreso if the Steve Martin character was cast as a Keanu Reeves type as written), it presents a great showcase for Meryl Streep. I think the finished product will be plagued by comparisons to the Diane Keaton vehicle, but the role gives Meryl a lot to work with. We are treated to glimpses of her sexy/confident/funny/vulnerable sides. If it is warmly received I can definitely see people latching onto that as opposed to the more traditional awards bait offered by Julia Child.

  • 17 7-19-2009 at 7:29 pm

    red_wine said...

    I think both Invictus and Amelia will be critical casualties and The Lovely Bones will get Rev Road like reviews. But I seriously think the Academy will suck up to Nine, it will likely be nominated in every category it is eligible.

    And people have been talking about the 5 movies that have missed directing slots will be filler. Even more concerning will be films that miss a screenplay nomination. How can you possibly win when even the screenplay isn’t nominated? The Hurt Locker’s screenplay will have to be nominated for it to be a serious contender.

  • 18 7-19-2009 at 8:05 pm

    James D. said...

    Excellent point, red_wine. After all, if a majority of the Best Picture nominees are adapted screenplays (which they usually are in the 5 format), a few films will be there with no screenplay nod.

  • 19 7-19-2009 at 8:38 pm

    Bill said...

    Now that there’s ten, the nomination will be the reward for A LOT of these. A good 6 or 7 won’t be gunning for the big prize.

  • 20 7-19-2009 at 9:47 pm

    Hans said...

    Random question that I had as I pondered over your predictions:

    It seems that if a Pixar movie is good, nowadays it can guarantee itself five nominations: Screenplay, Sound, Sound Editing, Score, and Animated Feature. Up of course also has a shot at Best Picture now. Would it ever be possible for a Pixar movie (or any other animated film for that matter) to be so well-received that begins to be in contention for such categories as Costume Design, Cinematography, Art Direction, VFX, Makeup, or are they ineligible from such categories since everything is created on a computer?

    I don’t think it’s actually possible, but I’m just curious as to what the general opinion is on something like this.

  • 21 7-20-2009 at 1:29 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    “How can you possibly win when even the screenplay isn’t nominated?”

    Ask James Cameron and Robert Wise.

  • 22 7-20-2009 at 1:42 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Regina: It’s a December release, so I think it will be fresher in voters’ minds. It all depends on Streep getting good notices and the film taking off with the public — for now, I’m guessing both will happen.

    RC: Yes, but you never know with Harvey. Like I said, I’m having a bit of fun.

    Hans: Animated films are eligible for art direction — indeed the Guild has nominated Pixar titles before — but the Academy is reluctant to go there. Ditto film editing. As for cinematography, well, the obvious answer is the right one.

    Dan: Yeah, I wasn’t expecting “(500) Days” to be so popular. One to keep in mind.

  • 23 7-20-2009 at 1:27 pm

    Kyle said...

    If I remember correctly, Wall-E won an editing award from a particular editors guild last awards season. I read that it’s the first time an animated film has won in it.

  • 24 7-20-2009 at 1:30 pm

    Andrew said...

    @Kyle: Wall-E won the ACE eddie award for original comedy/musical. (slumdog won for dramatic)

    @hans: Animated films are eligible for nominations, but most voters still haven’t found the stomach to do so