SUNDAY CENTS: Photo finish on ‘Ice’

Posted by · 11:09 am · July 5th, 2009

Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs*Historical figures quoted are adjusted to today’s dollars.

It was another close race at the box office this weekend with estimates calling it an exact tie between “Ice Age: Dawn of the Dinosaurs” and “Transformers: Revenge of the Fallen,” but Monday actuals might tell a different story.

The third entry in the animated series (only the second major animated franchise to reach three films) earned $42.5 million for the three-day weekend and $67.5 million since opening on Wednesday.  Independence Day falling on a Saturday was always going to hurt but given the fact that the first two “Ice Age” films opened with $57.2 million and $74.6 million respectively, this is a bit on the low side.

There really wasn’t enough material with these characters for one movie, let alone three, so it’s not surprising that the shine is wearing off.  But Fox will still cross $400 million worldwide with this sucker so it’s no big deal to them.

Hot on its heels was “Transformers.”  A 62% dip to $42.5 million gives Michael Bay’s magnum opus $293.5 million after 12 days.  Uptight movie nerds need not worry though because at 12 days “The Dark Knight” had already amassed $333.9 million, so there’s no chance of Shia rubbing elbows with the bat’s total gross.  It does have a great chance of becoming the 12th film from this decade to cross $400 million though, and that’s a damn shame.

In Contention staff favorite “Public Enemies” earned the bronze for the frame with a $26.2 million three-day weekend and $41 million in the bank since Wednesday.  “Collateral” and “Miami Vice” both opened in the $28 million ballpark, so given the spread-the-wealth nature of a Wednesday opening and the Saturday anti-holiday, this is basically a career best for Mann.  I’m not convinced it has the goods to make it all the way to $100 million, but we’ll see.

In other news, “The Hangover” crossed the $200 million mark, making it the first straight-up comedy to accomplish that feat since “Wedding Crashers” four years ago.  And “Star Trek” finally exited the top 10 after 8 solid weeks.  See you on your next sleek and sexy adventure, Kirk and Spock!

This week I gave my hard earned 10 bucks to two movies.  “The Windmill Movie” is excellent and I encourage anyone living in a city lucky enough to get it to go check it out.  And “Year One” is maybe the worst put-together major Hollywood film I’ve ever seen, and yet I also laughed 10 times more than at “The Hangover,” so take that as you will.

Next week is the return of everyone’s favorite prankster, Sacha Baron Cohen, with “Brüno.”  This thing could go anywhere, with Universal putting a lot of money behind it and Cohen seemingly everywhere promoting, but it may all be for naught in the Red States and metropolitan markets alone are not enough to become a blockbuster.  I think $42 million opening and then a quick death.

The only other release is Fox’s “I Love You Beth Cooper,” which looks simply dreadful.  Chris Columbus is a long way from the “Harry Potter” franchise and each new director that tackles that series shows him and his two entries to be more and more inept.  If this thing makes more than $5 million, I’ll eat my hat.

What do you guys think for “Brüno?”  Any excitement for it out there?  Here are the weekend’s top domestic grossers, courtesy of Exhibitor Relations:

Weekend of Friday, July 3, 2009




→ 19 Comments Tags: , , , , , , , , | Filed in: Box Office · Sunday Cents

19 responses so far

  • 1 7-05-2009 at 11:49 am

    Speaking English said...

    ***If this thing makes more than $5 million, I’ll eat my hat.***

    ???

    Also I doubt Kris wrote this article, so the name at the top must be a mistake.

  • 2 7-05-2009 at 12:46 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Wrong byline on this for an hour or so. Apologies to Chad.

  • 3 7-05-2009 at 12:47 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    And yeah, is that a typo Chad? 50, right?

  • 4 7-05-2009 at 12:48 pm

    BobMcBob said...

    Why do you think “Public Enemies” won’t cross $100M?

    It only needs to quadruple it’s opening weekend, and it’s at 70 on metacritic.com and 65% on rottentomatoes.com.

    It’s already got $41M in the bag.

  • 5 7-05-2009 at 1:53 pm

    Dean said...

    I agree with him, I hope it won’t make more than 5 million. But that’s a little low so I’d say 10 million at the most.

  • 6 7-05-2009 at 2:00 pm

    red_wine said...

    What the fuck! BoxOfficeMojo says Public Enemies budget is 100 million. That’s quite a lot for a drama and it would have trouble breaking even domestically with all the money that goes into promotion and all.

  • 7 7-05-2009 at 2:22 pm

    Chad Hartigan said...

    No typo. I’m talking about I Love You Beth Cooper with that 5 mil. Is that not clear?

  • 8 7-05-2009 at 2:24 pm

    Chad Hartigan said...

    Hardly any films quadruple their opening these days. Most are lucky to triple it. And regardless of critical reception, I just think it’s a little too polarizing with general audiences to get that high.

  • 9 7-05-2009 at 3:43 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    I was thinking total gross. Read the wrong thing into it.

  • 10 7-05-2009 at 3:46 pm

    BobMcBob said...

    Chad, check out the plethora of similar genre films that more than quadrupled their opening weekends:

    http://boxofficemojo.com/showdowns/chart/?id=crimevs.htm

    Those films didn’t come out that long ago, and the only reason “American Gangster” only tripled it’s budget is because of it’s enormous opening weekend.

  • 11 7-05-2009 at 3:59 pm

    Chad Hartigan said...

    Three films is hardly a plethora. And I think all three of those films have broader appeal, however slight. I’m not saying it doesn’t have a chance, I’m just saying I think it’s a longshot.

  • 12 7-05-2009 at 4:02 pm

    James D. said...

    I spent my money this weekend on Whatever Works. Good if you like Woody and Larry David, but a bit stale if you don’t.

    Are to assume Bruno will be number one next week? I will probably see it, but I doubt it can recapture the magic of Borat.

  • 13 7-05-2009 at 4:35 pm

    BobMcBob said...

    three are just three recent films in the crime drama genre that more than quadrupled their opening weekend;

    what do you think the final figures will be for “Public Enemies” in domestic and overseas box office?

    Also, isn’t Univerasl Studios hurting (and might merge with Sony) because of it’s string of flops after “State of Play”, “Land of the Lost” and now this film perhaps underperforming?

    I guess Universal has a lot riding on “Bruno”?

  • 14 7-05-2009 at 6:56 pm

    Christopher said...

    “Chris Columbus is a long way from the “Harry Potter” franchise and each new director that tackles that series shows him and his two entries to be more and more inept.”

    Amen. I agree completely.

  • 15 7-05-2009 at 7:07 pm

    Chad Hartigan said...

    I think Public Enemies will make about $85 mil domestic and $100 overseas.

  • 16 7-05-2009 at 8:52 pm

    Bing147 said...

    Only the 2nd animated franchise to reach 3 films? Aladdin, Land Before Time, Shrek, Lupin….

  • 17 7-05-2009 at 9:14 pm

    James D. said...

    How many of those were direct to video, Bing147?

  • 18 7-05-2009 at 10:12 pm

    Jeremy said...

    Chad, regarding your comment on Chris Columbus, does this mean you’re a fan of Harry Potter films 3, 4, and 5? If so, I completely get where you’re coming from. I’m getting psyched up for the opening of “Half-Blood Prince”; as part of my ritualistic fanboy preparations, I always watch the precursors on Blu-ray, but this time I’m going to bypass the first two. I’ll admit that I enjoyed them, but I can’t deny that they were, by and large, lifeless recitations of the books. Starting with the third movie, the series ascended to true art and has matured to cinematic spectacle.

  • 19 7-05-2009 at 11:52 pm

    Chad Hartigan said...

    I haven’t read any of the books so I’m not a Potter buff. I think the first two movies are terrible, the third one was great and then the ones since have been fine. I’m really neither here nor there with the whole franchise.