Sidebar clean-up, predix, etc.

Posted by · 11:41 am · February 2nd, 2009

Since I’ve been hoofing it in Santa Barbara since the day of the Oscar nominations, I haven’t had a moment to clean up the predictions sidebar with new pics and the usual asterisks to signify my predictions.  Well, it’s done now.  All the pics represent my predictions in the various categories, all subject to change, of course.

I don’t anticipate writing any lengthy “Off the Carpet” columns unless something really shakes the race up, but it all seems to be falling into place, no?  Then again, when you get comfortable with the season, that’s when it surprises you.




→ 13 Comments Tags: | Filed in: Daily

13 responses so far

  • 1 2-02-2009 at 2:04 pm

    Steven said...

    WALL-E winning 5 Oscars? Tying with Slumdog?

    Sounds pretty cool to me. I’d love WALL-E to take that score Oscar from Slumdog, personally, but that specific predicted win count makes me kind of happy. :)

    ~Steven

  • 2 2-02-2009 at 2:21 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    It might lose one or both of those sound nods, but I’m disenchanted with the romantic idea that the Academy will find the proper room to award “The Dark Knight” at this point.

  • 3 2-02-2009 at 3:39 pm

    Adam Smith said...

    TDK, I’m afraid will lose Cinematography to Slumdog. The Academy associates the category with pretty colors more than stellar camera work and photography, so Slumdog takes it, undeservingly.

  • 4 2-02-2009 at 3:52 pm

    Speaking English said...

    Contrary to both of you, I think “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” takes Cinematography. Most beautifully shot film of the year, for me, and I think the Academy will agree.

  • 5 2-02-2009 at 11:43 pm

    Steven said...

    I think The Reader has a shot… Roger Deakins has to win at some point, right? And his and Menges’s work is beautiful. But I think Adam may be right… pretty colors = cinematography apparently.

    ~Steven

  • 6 2-03-2009 at 7:58 am

    N8 said...

    It’ll be both or neither of the sound awards for WALL-E. When the winner of sound mixing is also nominated for sound editing, it almost always wins that too.

    As for original screenplay, wishful thinking. The animation bias is just too strong.

  • 7 2-03-2009 at 6:29 pm

    Adam Smith said...

    Speaking English: Look at past winners.

    2005: Memoirs of a Geisha over Brokeback Mountain

    2006: Pan’s Labyrinth over Children of Men

    To a certain extent, Master and Commander beating City of God.

    They might as well give the award to the colorist and not the DP.

  • 8 2-03-2009 at 9:01 pm

    Speaking English said...

    To be fair, “The New World” was the true winner of 2005.

  • 9 2-03-2009 at 10:00 pm

    Adam Smith said...

    Acceptable. Point being it shouldn’t have been Memoirs of a Geisha.

  • 10 2-03-2009 at 11:19 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    They don’t go for “pretty colors” so much as the ole’ postcard look. I think “Button” is TDK’s competition in that regard, but TDK is a moody piece photographically and given the IMAX talk throughout the year, I think it could take the prize.

    We’ll see.

  • 11 2-03-2009 at 11:20 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    And I was wholly unimpressed and disappointed with Lubezki’s work in “The New World.” Janusz Kaminski deserved that win walking away for “Munich,” some of his best work to date and one of the only saving graces of an otherwise problematic film. Pity he wasn’t even nominated.

  • 12 2-04-2009 at 3:32 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    N8: Predicting “WALL-E” for Original Screenplay is hardly “wishful thinking” on Kris’ part. As a regular reader of the site, you must have picked up that he’s not such a fan of the film.

  • 13 2-04-2009 at 2:22 pm

    Adam Smith said...

    I’ll admit, choosing Robert Elswit’s work on There Will Be Blood last year was a step in the right direction (though I’m sure most of the readers here would say Roger Deakins deserved to win for The Assassination of Jesse James By The Coward Robert Ford). But at the same time, I don’t see how the “postcard” idea gives a win to a film like Memoirs of a Geisha. In fact, by that account, Brokeback Mountain should have been the winner, especially considering it was a film that they seemed to like more (what with the Best Picture nomination and all).

    When the ASC announces, I’m willing to predict that whatever they pick is probably not going to win. ASC and AMPAS have only matched 7 times in the past 15 years, so a little less than half. In terms of finding trends:

    – ASC is not as kind to foreign language films. Sometimes they go on to win Oscars (Crouching Tiger Hidden Dragon), sometimes without even being nominated for the ASC (Pan’s Labyrinth). However, if a foreign language film wins the ASC (like A Very Long Engagement), bet against it for the Oscar.
    – There’s no real consensus on black-and-white v. color. When a black-and-white nominee in the past 15 years has won one of the awards, it loses the other (ASC winner The Man Who Wasn’t There v. AMPAS winner LOTR; ASC winner Searching for Bobby Fischer v. AMPAS winner Schindler’s List).
    – Where has there been consensus? They like John Toll (only DP in this list to win two years in a row); they both agreed to give it to the dead guy (Conrad L. Hall for Road to Perdition–though he did deserve it)
    – However, going against my own claims, a Best Picture winner has not won Best Cinematography since 1999 (American Beauty).

    All I’m saying, Kris, is that yes, The Dark Knight is a wonderfully shot film and deserves the win, no doubt (I’d have Let The Right One In win on my own ballot, but it wasn’t eligible, so it’s not even worth discussing that matter). I just hope this call isn’t based solely on your belief that The Dark Knight is the year’s best photographed film, no matter how true that might be. They’ve gotten it wrong before (again, Children of Men stands out as the most unforgivable of the recent losses).