Guessing the weekend’s guilds

Posted by · 12:13 pm · January 24th, 2009

Screen Actors Guild awardI’ve been giving my picks out to various aggregators this weekend but haven’t bothered with a post of my own.  Go figure.

I feel like the only sure thing at the SAG is Heath Ledger’s victory in the Best Supporting Actor category, but while everyone else is banking on Sean Penn and Kate Winslet in the leading categories, I’m inclined to say Mickey Rourke and Meryl Streep will throw their respective wrenches in the works.

Winslet is probably sitting pretty for a supporting actress victory, while I can’t think of a valid reason to be against “The Dark Knight” in the new stunt ensemble category.  So…

Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Leading Role: Mickey Rourke in “The Wrestler”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Leading Role: Meryl Streep in “Doubt”
Outstanding Performance by a Male Actor in a Supporting Role: Heath Ledger in “The Dark Knight”
Outstanding Performance by a Female Actor in a Supporting Role: Kate Winslet in “The Reader”
Outstanding Performance by a Cast in a Motion Picture: “Milk”
Outstanding Performance by a Stunt Ensemble in Motion Pictures: “The Dark Knight”

I won’t be around when the awards actually go down, but I’m sure Guy will be covering.

(PGA thoughts after the jump.)

Guy has already posted a thorough analysis of the PGA awards below, so I’ll be brief.  The producers could really shake things up if they lean toward “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” which was usher to the screen by industry titans Frank Marshall and Kathleen Kennedy after nearly 20 years of effort.  The film is making money, it landed a slew of Oscar nominations and it seems to have the appropriate industry respect.

But I’m tempted to look in another direction, perhaps at my own peril.  “The Dark Knight” is the industry story of the year no matter how you slice it.  At a time when runaway productions and a suffering economy are putting the hurt on filmmakers eager to work, this film brought in nearly a billion dollars like a shot to the arm.  “Sumdog Millionaire” was filmed on location with a foreign crew, which could play against it, and though the folks at Focus think they have a play at the big prize next month (and why shouldn’t they?), I don’t think the stars have aligned for a PGA win.

“Frost/Nixon,” meanwhile, will be happy to be there throughout the season.  Unless Frank Langella can pick up some Oscar steam (which is entirely possible).

So, I’m going with “The Dark Knight.”  It would be a first, of course, given the lack of a Best Picture nod.  But firsts can happen.


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8 responses so far

  • 1 1-24-2009 at 12:26 pm

    Bill M. said...

    Curious Case hands down, 106 million grossed as of Friday, 13 oscar nominations, A-list Producers, big budget spectacle, a film that will last for decades for its production value.

    CCOBB wins PGA.

  • 2 1-24-2009 at 12:29 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    You’re probably right. I don’t have the heart to go there.

  • 3 1-24-2009 at 2:17 pm

    Chris said...

    I agree with the SAG wins, except I am really split with Sean Penn and Mickey Rourke on Best Actor. I think either have the best chance at winning out of all the nominees.

    Also, I think The Dark Knight may win the PGA. It would be a nice way to make up for that Oscar snub this week. Still can’t believe it.

  • 4 1-24-2009 at 2:42 pm

    Hans said...

    After this week’s nomination disappointments, I think a lot of people will be looking for some beacon of cheer at the PGA, but I think I’ve honestly had the hope in me deflated. PGA will follow suit and give it to Slumdog.

    I like how, by your predictions Kris, TDK might potentially walk away with the most SAG awards. Yay.

  • 5 1-24-2009 at 2:45 pm

    JAB said...

    hey, i made this collage and I thought you guys at IC might appreciate it.

  • 6 1-25-2009 at 4:02 pm

    Mike V. said...

    Hope Meryl wins!