Last minute thoughts

Posted by · 6:35 pm · January 21st, 2009

Anne Hathaway in Rachel Getting MarriedLike I said, I’m on the record.  I’ve given some left-field choices (as have you).  But here are some lingering thoughts bouncing around inside my tired old head this evening:

1) I think we’re going to see tomorrow, finally, that “Rachel Getting Married” is nothing more than a critical fave.  Personally, I liked it enough, but all the “one of the year’s best” talk was dubious to say the least.  A SAG ensemble nod would have kept me quiet.  Talk about a place it could have made a stand.  And that WGA snub was just one more smack by the industry, in my view.  Maybe it’s just like one voter told me: “I couldn’t stand these people.”  Anne Hathaway, step up for the film’s consolation nod.

2) “Gran Torino,” “Gran Torino,” “Gran Torino.”  I can’t say it enough…this film is creeping up.  It’s possible it came on too late and Clint missed the timing this time out, but, like I’ve said…watch it.  Personally I think it’s a bigger threat than “The Reader.”  A bad-ass white guy kicking kids off his lawn or a porno about a sympathetic Nazi.  Which film is going to resonate more with the Academy?  You tell me.

3) Everyone says, in varying degrees, that everything from “The Dark Knight” to “Frost/Nixon” to “Milk” are on the bubble.  But here’s a radical idea: what if the weak link is the film many have called cold and removed?  “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” sure does have a lot of guild support…but so did “Dreamgirls.”

4) Could one of the biggest stories tomorrow be the snubbing of Brangelina?  Some think he’s out, some think she’s out…but what if they’re both out?  Eesh.

5) Better yet, might the biggest shock of the day be a “Man on Wire” snub in the documentary feature category?  All I’m saying is films dominated by preexisting footage can struggle here sometimes.

Then again…maybe I’m off my rocker.  But there you have it.

I’ve only made one prediction alteration, FYI, and that’s swapping “Slumdog Millionaire” for “Quantum of Solace” in the sound editing field.  The latter was just an arbitrary choice to reflect the mixers’ feelings, but I’m thinking of a sweeper possibility there and I like the advenurous choice of “Slumdog” more than “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button.”  But really, that category lately?  Flip a coin.

Enjoy the morning.

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28 responses so far

  • 1 1-21-2009 at 6:55 pm

    Mike said...

    call me petty, but a Brangelina snub would make my day

  • 2 1-21-2009 at 6:56 pm

    Mike said...

    …especially if it means Richard Jenkins, Sally Hawkins and Melissa Leo are in…

  • 3 1-21-2009 at 7:01 pm

    Bryan said...

    I won’t be able to sleep well…nightmares of “Get off my lawn…” played for a best picture clip.

  • 4 1-21-2009 at 7:04 pm

    Michael said...

    It’s tonight on the official site, right? The nominations, I mean.

  • 5 1-21-2009 at 7:07 pm

    KA.TO said...

    Please Milk… hold in there.

  • 6 1-21-2009 at 7:09 pm

    Brad said...

    I think Button is going to miss out. There’s no passion for the film, just admiration. I felt the same way.
    Pitt may surprise in the supporting race for Burn After Reading.
    Jolie I think is out. Leo takes her spot.

  • 7 1-21-2009 at 7:15 pm

    Aaron said...

    I will actually be very sad if Brad Pitt and Angelina Jolie are out. I thought both of them gave very powerful performances this year. I love Melissa Leo but she was the only good thing in that film, IMO. She’s the biggest threat to Angelina. The other actors in Frozen River didn’t know what the hell they were doing. They should bow down at Melissa Leo’s feet!

  • 8 1-21-2009 at 7:21 pm

    Sound Designer Dan said...

    Stupid question but what channel are they going to present the nominees? I’d like to watch this thing live for the first time.

  • 9 1-21-2009 at 7:27 pm

    Michael said...

    Sound Designer,

    I think it’s a live stream on the official site. I’m not sure, but that’s what it was last year.

  • 10 1-21-2009 at 7:31 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    I ususally watch on E! out of force of habit.

  • 11 1-21-2009 at 7:32 pm

    McGuff said...

    I’m taking some chances this year, but that’s okay:

    Best Picture: Benjamin Button, TDK, Frost/nixon, Milk, Slumdog.

    Best Director: Aronofsky, Fincher, Nolan, Van Sant, Boyle.

    Best Actor: Eastwood, Jenkins, Langella, Penn, Rourke.

    Best Actress: Hathaway, Jolie, Streep, Michelle Williams, Winslet (RevR0ad).

    Supporting Actor: Brolin, Hoffman, Ledger, Patel, Shannon.

    Supporting Actress: Cruz, Davis, Henson, Tomei, Winslet.

    Adapted Screenplay: Beaufoy, Haythe, Morgan, Nolans, Roth.

    Original Screenplay: Allen, Black, McCarthy, Siegel, Stanton/Reardon.

    Animated: Kung Fu Panda, WALL-E, Waltz with Bashir.

    Art Direction: Button, Milk, RevRoad, Changeling, Doubt.

    Cinematography: TDK, Slumdog, Rev Road, Defiance, Button.

    Costume: Duchess, Button, Reader, Changeling, The Fall.

    Editing: Slumdog, Dark Knight, Frost/Nixon, Defiance, Button.

    Score: The Reader, Button, Slumdog, Defiance, WALL-E.

    Ugh, I don’t want to guess the rest.

  • 12 1-21-2009 at 7:33 pm

    Mr. Big said...

    if The curious Case of Benjamin Button is snubbed that means The Dar Knight’s name would have to be read first if it was in….I Can’t handle the pressure!!!!!!!

  • 13 1-21-2009 at 7:39 pm

    Brad said...

    If you watch, you might have to endure Ben Lyons. Just a warning.

  • 14 1-21-2009 at 7:40 pm

    Brad said...

    If you watch E!, you might have to endure Ben Lyons. Just a warning.

  • 15 1-21-2009 at 7:42 pm

    N8 said...

    “But really, that category lately?”

    I’m telling ya; Randy Thom is well-liked. Go with “Bolt”.

  • 16 1-21-2009 at 7:47 pm

    Aaron said...

    I know it’s goofy, but this literally rivals Christmas I’m so anxious!

  • 17 1-21-2009 at 7:51 pm

    Kate said...

    I’m nervous about tomorrow. Maybe it has to due with the fact that LOST is totally screwing up my nerves right now…

  • 18 1-21-2009 at 7:54 pm

    R.J. said...

    Aaron, I guess I’m just as goofy as you are because my nerves are killing me! I’m so anxious it’s ridiculous!

  • 19 1-21-2009 at 7:55 pm

    Frank Lee said...

    It just occurred to me that, because the Academy’s voting system assigns partial votes to a member’s second choice if his first choice receives an overwhelming number of first-place votes, this means the second place votes of everyone putting “Slumdog Millionaire” and Heath Ledger first may be significant. I imagine that people who liked one sentimental crowd-pleaser might also like another (“The Wrestler”). I have no idea, though, who the Heath Ledger fans would put as number two.

  • 20 1-21-2009 at 8:24 pm

    Rob Scheer said...

    Kris, I know it’s a serious possibility, but still, you REALLY need to stop jangling my nerves with all these repeated suggestions of a “Gran Torino” Best Picture nomination. Not joking, I’m looking over the BP nominations for the last 10 years, and I don’t see a worse film than “GT”.

    **Spoiler for “The Wrestler**

    “I imagine that people who liked one sentimental crowd-pleaser might also like another (”The Wrestler”).”

    I still fail to see how a movie that ends with our protagonist killing himself as a result of everyone in his life rejecting him qualifies as a “crowd-pleaser”

  • 21 1-21-2009 at 8:27 pm

    The Z said...

    I am personally hoping that “Slumdog Millionaire” gets Dreamgirled.

    Well-made film that I enjoyed, but it didn’t do anything for me. Just eh.

  • 22 1-21-2009 at 10:29 pm

    alynch said...

    Supporting actor has been known to have an out of nowhere nominee now and then (Alan Alda?), so in that spirit I’ll predict Dennis Hopper for Elegy.

  • 23 1-21-2009 at 10:33 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    I don’t think Alan Alda counts as “out of nowhere.” I certainly predicted him. He had a BAFTA nod.

    But Hopper would definitely be out of nowhere.

  • 24 1-21-2009 at 10:58 pm

    Robert Hamer said...

    “But here’s a radical idea: what if the weak link is the film many have called cold and removed? “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” sure does have a lot of guild support…but so did “Dreamgirls.””

    One can only hope….

  • 25 1-21-2009 at 11:49 pm

    Katie H said...


  • 26 1-22-2009 at 3:27 am

    PJ said...

    In my mind only “Slumdog Millionaire” is guaranteed a Best Picture nomination. Which means “Milk”, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button” and “Frost/Nixon” are all on shaky ground, perhaps possibly in that order.

  • 27 1-22-2009 at 8:28 am

    alexander zarate said...

    It’s a mistery to me why The curious case of Benjamin Button is considered ‘cold’. It touched me very deeply. Maybe i’m a freak, but there have been a few movies have torn my heart so deeply. It’s a fascinating mixture between two movies i love as well: The bridges of madison county and Big fish. A powerful masterpiece, so tender and complex.