So…

Posted by · 7:22 pm · December 20th, 2008

…are the actress categories leaving anyone else for a loss?  Six to seven contenders with clear shots at a nod in each field.  Flip a coin.




→ 33 Comments Tags: , | Filed in: Daily

33 responses so far

  • 1 12-20-2008 at 7:36 pm

    jp said...

    i’ll go with:

    winslet
    streep
    hathaway
    blanchett (please)
    leo
    –no hawkins, no kst

    cruz (lock)
    winslet again (i don’t think that the reader will be totally left out…hopefully she’ll get shutout for taraji p henson)
    davis (lock)
    dewitt (my personal favorite)
    tomei
    –no adams, no henson (both totally deserving) also no debra winger (i never really thought she had much shot at it)

  • 2 12-20-2008 at 7:37 pm

    Casey F. said...

    the funny thing about this is that the one who is the clearest bet has gotten the most divisive reviews. love Meryl with all my heart but shes gotten about as many luke warm or negative reviews as she has positive

  • 3 12-20-2008 at 7:37 pm

    Casey F. said...

    in lead i mean

  • 4 12-20-2008 at 7:39 pm

    Davidraider88 said...

    Kris, any chance that this year’s Best Actress race will go through the Tilda Swinton effect of 2007, where the ballots are split between multiple nominees and it goes to like the 4th or 5th favorite choice in that category?

  • 5 12-20-2008 at 7:52 pm

    Andrew L. said...

    hathaway, hawkins, leo, streep, winslet

    cruz, davis, dewitt, hensen, tomei

    don’t think winslet will get double nod–The Reader will have to settle on GG.

    hensen will probably be Button’s only acting nod.

  • 6 12-20-2008 at 7:53 pm

    Aaron said...

    Hathaway
    Jolie
    Leo
    Streep
    Winslet

    ….with Jolie the most vulnerable…but I have a feeling they’re not going to snub her again this year…just a feeling…the last slot is a tough race between Leo and Hawkins, but I feel that the SAG lineup will match with Oscar…

    …Kristin Scott-Thomas is still a possibility and I guess Cate Blanchett, even though she’s more of a long shot—I can only see Blanchett making if the Academy goes bonkers for The Curious Case of Benjamin Button

    supporting actress
    Cruz, Davis, Winslet LOCKS
    Tomei LIKELY—that SAG snub was stupid
    the last spot???
    that’s a big, big toughy…but I’ll go with Taraji P. Henson over Rosemarie DeWitt and Amy Adams…if I had my druthers I would pick DeWitt (one of my favorite performances of the year), but I haven’t seen Henson yet. I just feel like she will triumph over DeWitt who has shamefully been absent from the precursors this year. I’m with those who feel like Adams will not garner enough #1 votes…whose performance is a little bland, in my opinion, for an Oscar nomination.

  • 7 12-20-2008 at 8:47 pm

    orr said...

    Swinton should get it for “Julia” anyway…

  • 8 12-20-2008 at 9:22 pm

    kate said...

    LEADING:
    streep
    winslet
    hathaway

    hawkins
    jolie
    scott thomas
    leo
    blanchett

    SUPPORTING:
    winslet
    cruz
    davis

    tomei
    henson
    adams
    dewitt
    winger

  • 9 12-20-2008 at 9:26 pm

    michael mckay said...

    My best guess for lead actress nominees: Streep, Winslet, Blanchett, Hathaway, and Jolie.

  • 10 12-20-2008 at 9:49 pm

    G said...

    hmmm….sag really threw a wrench in the window…I think Leo will make it, Hawkins will bounce and Winslett will drop once the movie comes out. I have a feeling she got “blind” votes.

  • 11 12-20-2008 at 10:15 pm

    Robert said...

    I think if voters truly look at the performances, the nominees will be:

    LEAD ACTRESS:
    Blanchett
    Winslet
    Streep
    Hathaway
    Leo

    SUPPORTING ACTRESS:
    Cruz
    Davis
    Winslet
    Dewitt
    Hensen

    It’s interesting how strong these categories are this year, unlike last year, where there were about three “locks” as far as nominations in each of these categories.

    Best Actress is very interesting because although Sally Hawkins has won an abundance of critics awards, she did not get a nomination for the Critics Choice or SAG and Streep has gotten great to mediocre reviews. I’m worried about Winslet, though. She could possibly receive her sixth and seventh nomination come January and I wonder if some will not vote for her to get a nomination in one of the categories for fear of embarassment if she does not win. I think her best shot is Best Actress for RR.

  • 12 12-20-2008 at 10:54 pm

    JAB said...

    Best Actress:
    Meryl Streep (Lock)
    Anne Hathaway (Lock)
    Kate Winslet (GG win would make her a lock)
    Sally Hawkins
    Cate Blanchett

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Penelope Cruz (Lock)
    Viola Davis (Lock)
    Taraji P. Henson
    Rosemarie DeWitt
    Amy Adams

    i just need to say, I saw Vicky Cristina Barcelona tonight (finally) and i could really see the Academy going nuts for it…Cruz is obvious, but I wouldn’t be insanely shocked to see Rebecca Hall break into the Best Actress race, especially if she wins the Globe for it.
    Also, Kate Winslet is going to win an oscar this year, i really can’t see it going any other way in the end.

  • 13 12-20-2008 at 11:10 pm

    jp said...

    i dont like to wish ill on anyone but i will be deeply unhappy if jolie gets nominated. i HATED changeling (and i like eastwood) and i thought her performance was ludicrous and two-dimensional. i liked all the other candidates for both categories a lot (that i’ve seen).

    although i loved hathaway and thought she was the best of all, i really hope winslet wins. she really needs to just win at some point, right?

  • 14 12-21-2008 at 12:47 am

    Douglas said...

    BEST ACTRESS:

    -Cate Blanchett
    -Kristen Scott Thomas
    -Kate Winslet
    -Sally Hawkins
    -Anne Hathaway

    Cate is due in this category,
    Kate is overdue in this category,
    Sally adds a bit of light to this category,
    Anne should debut in this category, and
    Kristen deserves to win in this category.

    However, we had a French winner last year so I think the Academy will want a change.
    I would love to see Cate win but I think the Oscar will go to the other KATE for Revolutionary Road.

  • 15 12-21-2008 at 12:49 am

    Brian Kinsley said...

    If Winslet gets nominated, it’s probably her best shot at a win yet.

    Hathaway’s odds are gonna get Norbited as soon as Bride Wars hits.

  • 16 12-21-2008 at 1:53 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    It’s baffling, isn’t it? I’m starting to think Winslet may be quite vulnerable in the lead category, what with “Revolutionary Road” fading so fast.

    I’m interested to see what happens with the National Society of Film Critics… if they pick Hawkins, for example, it’s difficult to imagine her getting left out.

  • 17 12-21-2008 at 1:56 am

    MARK said...

    i just don’t know there is a case for all,the most vulnerable best actress is kst she only has a globe nod so she is 8th,in 7th is blanchett no globe nod and not a stretch,6th leo maybe not enough supp for a small film a la patricia clarkson in 2003,5th hawkins will win the globa and her character is not like anyones this yr plus the mike leigh effect,4th jolie snub last year gor all the right citations,3rd hathaway the new girl stretchy perf they seem to invite her when she isn’t nommed too,2nd streep needed raves to win,1st winsllet it really is her time but i will say this if dicaprio is out so is she!!!!!!!! and then she wins supp and streep wins lead.

  • 18 12-21-2008 at 2:30 am

    Rob said...

    It’s strange Guy that you think Winslet could be vulnerable now. I almost have the oppositie view certainly this week. And the last two times she was nominated in lead it was supected she would faulter. She didn’t. And she won’t. I think she is too respected by her peers. These aren’t critics voting after all.

    Against the odds she made it in to Best Actress at SAG, and seems to have won a number of critics awards in the past couple of weeks (I accept that these aren’t major ones – but she’s never really done this well with critics awards).

    I’d see Winslet, Streep and Hathaway pratically in (and reputation helps two of them here). The last two slots are difficult. Hawkins seems pretty likely, and Leo seems to be the sort of actress who has respect and a great career that gets nominated the hard way, the way you should. The film was I suspect was never thought of as awards fodder, and just caught on.

    I don’t know how well liked Jolie is. We’ll see if she makes it in with BAFTA. Scott Thomas is out (and you have no idea how much that pains me), and as for Blanchett, aside from Broadcast Film Critics, and “In Contention” I’ve seen very little evidence of a rise in buzz.

  • 19 12-21-2008 at 2:32 am

    Rob said...

    Mark – just a point on your thought on La Winslet – being that if Dicaprio is out, so is she.

    The actors playing opposite her have never been nominated, when she has. Alan Rickman, Leo Dicaprio, Hugh Bonneville, Jim Carrey and Patrick Wilson all missed out, often when the work was as good as hers.

  • 20 12-21-2008 at 3:50 am

    paul said...

    I agree with Rob, poeple Blanchett is out!
    There is no way she is getting in in such a crowded year, she is not on the radar anymore. She is only buzzed on this site now for a nomination. Scott Thomas is also probably out (surprising and sad). The nominees are among these six women:

    Meryl Streep (probably in)
    Anne Hathaway (the same)

    The rest are fighting for the last three, my guess

    Angelina Jolie
    Sally Hawkins
    Melissa Leo
    Kate Winslet

    I think Leo and Winslet is fighting for the last spot, I´d say Winslet gets in, her buzz is rising again but I´m not sure because of category confusion with The Reader and because of the fact that double nominations are not easy to acheive.

  • 21 12-21-2008 at 5:46 am

    tdr said...

    It seems to me that again this year the BAFTA’s will decide the winner, and probably the nominees. In the last couple of years they awarded the eventual winners in best supp actor (Alan Alda) and supp actress (Tilda Swinton). But this is lead category so my theory may be wrong but still.
    The BAFTA’s often stir to domestic stars to get nommed, but this year there are many british ladies who are in contention for best actress- KST, Winslet, Hawkins. You can count them nommed for BAFTA, Streep will get in and propably Hathaway, or Jolie. And i wouldn’t be surprised if those are the nominees for the Oscar. This is completely sad because Melissa Leo deserves to get in, even though she has the right precursors, the lack of name recognition might leave her out.
    I see Winslet, Streep, Hathaway, Hawkins, Jolie-with hopes that Leo bumps someone out.
    As for the best supp actress, Cruz will win, with probably Davis, Henson nommed, I see Winger in, and probably something very left field and european- Elsa Zylberstain, maybe.

  • 22 12-21-2008 at 5:56 am

    tdr said...

    Btw, when are the BAFTAs announcing their nominees? Does anyone know?

  • 23 12-21-2008 at 7:30 am

    Hugo said...

    To begin sad for the SAG snub to Sally Hawkins, Marissa Tomei and Leonardo Di Caprio, but more for Hawkins is a new face, which adds to the novelty and always nominee Streep (better Winslet), Winslet, who is partly deserved be nominated this time, not so Angelina Jolie, who are giving consolation prizes for the snub last year and thus not es. No Cate Blanchett is not his best performance, a penalty by Kristin Scott Thomas, did not win any precursor, no prizes of critics , I think only receive a nomination BAFTA consolation.
    Anne Hathaway is good, but otherwise his performance is not so much for, the good performance of Melissa.
    great performance and courageous efforts in the Hawkins role is quite difficult to note the effort, which saw its NO SAG fellow and it’s critics film that gave value their performance, serious big AMPAS, make better choices in what is just in terms of performances.

    Oscar nominees are:

    Streep
    Hathaway
    Hawkins
    Leo
    Winslet (SAG and the American public by the love anything to do).

    BAFT Candidate, The British have a lot of excellent performances this year and should be rewarded for their ladies

    Nominees:

    Kristin Scott Thomas
    Sally Hawkins
    Kate Winslet
    Meryl Streep
    Melissa Leo
    español > inglés cambiarTraducir

  • 24 12-21-2008 at 8:39 am

    Marcus said...

    LEAD:
    Winslet (to win)
    Hathaway (second)
    Streep
    Hawkins
    Jolie

    SUPPORTING:
    Cruz (to win)
    Davis
    Winslet
    Tomei
    Henson

  • 25 12-21-2008 at 9:30 am

    Ronn said...

    LEAD:

    Ann Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
    Meryl Streep (Doubt)
    Kate Winslett (Revolutionary Road)
    Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
    Cate Blanchett (Benjamin Button)

    I don’t think Cate is out…. should she be, maybe, but she gets massive Academy love and the film is really good and once it opens publicly and gets the buzz ball rolling I can’t by any means rule her as being out. I would like to see Sally Hawkins (Happy-G0-Lucky) take her place.

    SUPPORTING:

    Marisa Tomei (The Wrestler)
    Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
    Kate Winslet (The Reader)
    Viola Davis (Doubt)
    Taraji P. Henson (Benjamin Buttom)

    – I really hope Vera Farmiga (Nothing but the Truth) gets a nod over Viola Davis. Davis was very powerful but I’m not a huge fan of the one pivotal scene taking home the hardware albeit a fantastic performance.

  • 26 12-21-2008 at 10:27 am

    questar said...

    Count on this:

    Best Actress:
    Kristin Scott Thomas
    Sally Hawkins
    Melisso Leo
    Meryl Streep
    Angelina Jolie

    All of the above are a good mix of foreign and American actors and the ones who have gotten the rave reviews. I can’t see them blindly including Kate Winslet in the mix since the movie hasn’t officially come out, yet and from what I’ve read so far, I doubt if she contributed anything close to a breakthrough performance in this film. As for Hathaway, her film has fallen off the radar and all the bad publicity with her Italian boyfriend is still fresh in academy members minds.

    Best Actor:

    Sean Penn
    Frank Langella
    Richard Jenkins
    Phillip Seymour Hoffman
    Mickey Rourke

    So sorry Brad, but the academy can’t possibly include your pretty, over-exposed face in favor of the great acting chops that the above gentlemen have contributed to the art of cinema this year. I’m talking about raw acting and not one that hides under a ton of make-up.

    Best Supporting Actress:
    Penelope Cruz
    Viola Davis
    Marisa Tomei
    Kate Winslet
    Amy Adams

    I included Adams because I think the academy will be in love with Doubt.

    Best Supporting Actor:
    Heath Ledger
    Emile Hirsch
    Michael Sheen
    James Brolin
    Diego Luna

    Too many people from Milk, you say? I think this movie boasted the best supporting actor performances of all the films this year.

    Best Picture
    Milk
    Frost/Nixon
    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    The Wrestler
    Doubt

  • 27 12-21-2008 at 11:13 am

    JAB said...

    questar: I’m sorry, there is no way diego luna is getting a nomination. His character was the one irritating thing about that movie. and Emile Hirsch is quite the long shot at this point, If it gets more than one nom they will be for Josh Brolin and James Franco. Slumdog Millionaire will be nominated for Best Picture as well.

  • 28 12-21-2008 at 12:33 pm

    MARK said...

    i think hirsh was best supporting actor in that film franco seemed blank to me,brolin not in it enough

  • 29 12-21-2008 at 1:38 pm

    Diego(uruguay) said...

    LEAD:

    Ann Hathaway (Rachel Getting Married)
    Meryl Streep (Doubt)
    Kate Winslett (Revolutionary Road)
    Angelina Jolie (Changeling)
    Sally Hawkins (Happy-Go-Lucky)

    OUT: Cate Blanchett

    Best Supporting Actress:

    Penelope Cruz (Vicky Cristina Barcelona)
    Viola Davis(Doubt)
    Taraji P. Henson(Benjamin button)
    Marisa Tomei(The wrestler)
    Rosemarie DeWitt(Rachel getting married)

    (Picture: Slumdog, Milk, Benjamin button, Frost/nixon, Wall-E)

  • 30 12-21-2008 at 3:31 pm

    Patrick said...

    Best Actress

    Anne Hathaway
    Sally Hawkins
    Kristin Scott-Thomas
    Meryl Streep
    Kate Winslet

    Best Supporting Actress

    Pelelope Cruz
    Viola Davis
    Rosemarie DeWitt
    Marisa Tomei
    Kate Winslet

    Kate receiving nominations 6 and 7 would make her the unfortunate actress with the most nominations without ever having won…hello and goodbye to Thelma Ritter and Deborah Kerr.

  • 31 12-21-2008 at 3:50 pm

    joe said...

    My thoughts exactly. KS Thomas, M. Leo, and S. Hawkins all have their major supporters…does Meryl or Kate shockingly get bumped?

    Maybe…

  • 32 12-22-2008 at 12:22 am

    Perplexed said...

    I just came from seeing “The Wrestler” for the first time after hearing the hype for this film all the way to being up in Toronto where it premiered.

    And all I have to say is that I a mildly confused. Mickey Rourke did a fantastic job. He quite literally embodied Randy the Ram (arguably, he played himself) and he is deserving of his praise.

    But I left that film utterly perplexed and flummoxed at how Marisa Tomei has been elevated to a serious contender for Best Supporting Actress.

    Don’t get me wrong, I think Tomei is a solid actress and did a fine job in the film. But that role, and her performance, were not remotely remarkable. It just wasn’t.

    She played a vulnerable, broken down stripper. With a heart of gold. How many times have we seen that role?

    Personally, I chalk a lot of the awards season buzz to group-think and sheep herding. And I love a number of the actresses and performances that are being buzzed about for Best Supporting Actress.

    But how on earth Tomei’s performance is considered a legit contender is stunning to me. Been there, done that (at least 100 times). Groan.

  • 33 12-22-2008 at 3:42 pm

    Ronn said...

    I just saw “Seven Pounds” and fell in love with Rosario Dawson… you can’t keep your eyes off her and I don’t mean that because she’s attractive, she really gave a wonderful performance. I hope she gets buzz in the coming weeks. She deserves it.

    I though Tomei was great. Different people see different things… through my eyes she completely dove into a role that is far more layered than it may appear on the surface. Just my opinion… that I certainly wouldn’t consider from the masses. I even wrote a review on the film weeks ago. http://www.burnersblahblahblog.blogspot.com