A shot in the dark

Posted by · 4:40 am · December 4th, 2008

Okay, so Kris has sensibly avoided predicting the frequently confounding National Board of Review awards, but I figure you need someone to mock and taunt when the announcement arrives later today, so I’m offering myself as a sacrificial lamb. My best guesses (which is not to say good guesses) after the cut.

I’m bearing in mind that last year, they chose not to include their Best Picture winner in their Top 10, thereby making it more of a Top 11. As for how they choose to categorise and separate independent film, I have no idea.

I must admit that, for all their occasional goofiness, I harbour some affection for the NBR awards, if only because they sometimes throw some curveballs into the mix (“Quills” or Campbell Scott, anyone?) and were among the few to suitably reward “Moulin Rouge!” in 2001. Here’s hoping they’re similarly adventurous this around.

My predictions:

Best Picture: “Milk”
Best Director: David Fincher, “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
Best Actor: Mickey Rourke, “The Wrestler”
Best Actress: Kristin Scott Thomas, “I’ve Loved You So Long”
Best Supporting Actor: Ralph Fiennes, “The Duchess,” “The Reader” and “In Bruges”
Best Supporting Actress: Viola Davis, “Doubt”
Best Original Screenplay: Thomas McCarthy, “The Visitor”
Best Adapted Screenplay: Justin Haythe, “Revolutionary Road”
Best Foreign Language Film: “A Christmas Tale”
Best Animated Film: “WALL-E”
Best Documentary Feature: “Man on Wire”
Best Ensemble: “Rachel Getting Married”
Best Breakthrough Actor: Brandon Walters, “Australia”
Best Breakthrough Actress: Sally Hawkins, “Happy-Go-Lucky”
Best Debut Director: Courtney Hunt, “Frozen River”

“The Curious Case of Benjamin Button”
“Rachel Getting Married”
“The Reader”
“Revolutionary Road”
“Slumdog Millionaire”
“Vicky Cristina Barcelona”
“The Wrestler”

“Frozen River”
“In Search of a Midnight Kiss”
“Sita Sings the Blues”
“Synecdoche, New York”
“The Visitor”
“The Wackness”
“Wendy and Lucy”

“Captain Abu Raed”
“The Class”
“I’ve Loved You So Long”
“Tell No One”

“Encounters at the End of the World”
“Pray the Devil Back to Hell”
“Roman Polanski: Wanted and Desired”
“Trouble the Water”
“Waltz With Bashir”

→ 18 Comments Tags: | Filed in: Daily

18 responses so far

  • 1 12-04-2008 at 5:17 am

    John Foote said...

    Pretty reasonable predictions Guy, though who knows with these folks, as they are without question the wild card of the award season…they are however the only group aside from the DGA to honor Steven Spielberg’s “Empire of the Sun” which gives at the very least a smidgen of credibility with me. Their best picture is usually a best film nominee.

  • 2 12-04-2008 at 5:21 am

    Chris said...

    I think “Doubt” and “Defiance” will make the list, as well as “Changeling”. It’s just this feeling I have.

    “Vicky Cristina Barcelona” could very well be the coolest prediction of the year though. Well done, Guy. :)

  • 3 12-04-2008 at 5:21 am

    James said...

    Not bad actually, Guy =).

    I’m actually fearful of Milk winning BP, because of the NBR curse (although, yeah, NCFOM broke that last year). But I do see it as likely.

    I agree on Rourke and disagree on Scott Thomas (I’m imagining Winslet, or Leo, if they decide to be awesome).

    Fiennes could be the perennial random nod that never gets in. Davis, maybe, I can see that.

    Breakthrough Actor–What about James Franco? =P I think he’s far more likely to stand out to them. It’s usually someone more prominent than Walters. For Actress, it could be anyone….Hawkins, Rosemarie DeWitt, Davis herself even. Hmm.

    Any idea what time it’s at?

  • 4 12-04-2008 at 5:32 am

    Markku said...

    “Breakthrough Actor–What about James Franco? =P I think he’s far more likely to stand out to them. It’s usually someone more prominent than Walters. For Actress, it could be anyone….Hawkins, Rosemarie DeWitt, Davis herself even. Hmm.”

    Good point. Remember when they gave Charlize Theron their breakthrough award in 2003? Just how ridiculous was that? It would be like awarding Josh Brolin this year.

    “Any idea what time it’s at?”

    Somebody over at AwardsDaily said the announcement would be around noon PST.

  • 5 12-04-2008 at 5:36 am

    James said...

    They were too lazy to just give her the lead win, haha.

    Thanks, Marrku. Now I know I can take another snooze.

  • 6 12-04-2008 at 5:37 am

    KING351 said...

    Does Anne Hathaway qualify as breakthrough for Rachel Getting Married? If so, I think she’ll get it…one of the most impressive performances of the year in my opinion.

  • 7 12-04-2008 at 5:39 am

    KING351 said...

    Picture – Milk
    Actor – Frank Langella
    Actress – Melissa Leo!!!!
    Supporting Actor – Michael Shannon
    Supporitng Actress – Viola Davis
    Breakthrough Actor- could be James Franco…

  • 8 12-04-2008 at 5:40 am

    nyla said...

    How about Michael Shannon for ‘Breakthrough’?

  • 9 12-04-2008 at 5:40 am

    nyla said...

    Btw, what time are they announced?

  • 10 12-04-2008 at 5:44 am

    Rob Scheer said...

    I don’t know how likely it is, but I’m kind-of hoping we start seeing multiple groups giving mad props to “Rachel Getting Married” in the ‘Best Picture’ department, thus lending it the sort of transformative momentum afforded to “Sideways” and “Capote.”

    What I think is more likely, however — and I have no problem with it — is us seeing Best Picture honor after Best Picture honor heading “Milk’s” way.

  • 11 12-04-2008 at 6:32 am

    BurmaShave said...

    Those predictions are so credible for a second I thought it was an update to the article with the actual winners.

  • 12 12-04-2008 at 6:56 am

    josh said...

    nothing for the dark knight?

  • 13 12-04-2008 at 6:56 am

    NBR said...

    The NBR will be announcing around 2pm EST

  • 14 12-04-2008 at 7:25 am

    Mark Kratina said...

    You forgot TDK in 10 best films.

  • 15 12-04-2008 at 7:30 am

    James said...

    Thanks for the update, mysterious NBR representative.

  • 16 12-04-2008 at 7:51 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    I didn’t forget, Mark. I think they’ll leave it out, the same way they left out every one of the Lord of the Rings films.

    I could easily be wrong, of course.

  • 17 12-04-2008 at 7:56 am

    Ivan said...

    Best Actor: Robert Downey Jr. /Iron Man & Tropic Thunder or Benicio del Toro/Che

    Breakthrough Actor: Michael Fassbender/ Hunger

    Director: Jonathan Demme/Rachel GM

    Ensemble: The Dark Knight

    Actress: Melissa Leo/Frozen River

    Supporting Actress: Marisa Tomei/The Wrestler

    Foreign Language: Reprise

    Adapted Screenplay: The Reader

    Original Screenplay: Rachel GM

  • 18 12-04-2008 at 8:02 am

    Simone said...

    Breakthrough Actor: Michael Fassbender/ Hunger

    Ivan, great minds think alike. :)

    fingers crossed