You won’t find NBR predictions in this space

Posted by · 12:47 pm · December 1st, 2008

National Board of ReviewNot from me, anyway.  Other blogs might want to go there, but I can’t do it.

Yes, the National Board of Review is set to unveil its top 10 list and rundown of awards winners on Thursday, but I can’t muster the courage to offer a set of predictions.  Let alone the fact that the group has marginalized itself to the point that being the first precursor is nothing more than a trivial aside.  (Though I guess they’re really not first, but who cares about the Golden Satellites?).

Regardless of all of that, how do you wrestle with forecasting an organization that chalks up “The Bucket List” as one of the year’s best?  Plus, I don’t know who’s spending the most money on the NBR banquet this year, so it’s hard to know what studios will fare better.  What, you gonna tell me money doesn’t count with this crowd?

The year’s annual joke will hit in three days, then we can move on to the real precursor circuit, but in the meantime, Dave Karger has taken a stab (perhaps foolhardy in his exclusion of “The Dark Knight” — WB knows how to woo the NBR), while Sasha Stone has provided a space for your own predictions and a rundown of NBR stats and how they compare with Oscar through the years.  Ugh.  I just can’t bring myself to care.

But if you can, have at it and predict the NBR’s annual awards below.

→ 34 Comments Tags: , | Filed in: Daily

34 responses so far

  • 1 12-01-2008 at 12:50 pm

    Jonathan Spuij said...

    So true to the above. They’re the first out of the gate but become postal boys for the campaigns and theatrical posters and ads for the movies in their top tens.

  • 2 12-01-2008 at 1:43 pm

    sasha stone said...

    If you don’t care you should get out of the fucking business. It’s annoying to read about how little you care. And sorry, the NBRs, like them or not, are still one of the best predictors, precursors out there. Just get out of the business and find something more fulfilling to do with your time, seriously.

  • 3 12-01-2008 at 2:06 pm

    Robert Hamer said...

    I’ll take a stab at predicting the NBR:

    Milk *winner*
    The Dark Knight
    Gran Torino
    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    Rachel Getting Married
    The Reader
    Revolutionary Road
    Slumdog Millionaire
    Frozen River

  • 4 12-01-2008 at 2:08 pm

    nick said...

    Hey Sasha — here’s an idea — don’t read Kris’ site if you don’t like what he has to say. Get over yourself.

    Kris makes a great point. Any group that bestows a piece of fucking shit like The Bucket List with ANY type of award or mention deserves to be treated like the meaningless group that they are.

  • 5 12-01-2008 at 2:11 pm

    McGuff said...

    Wow. Um, unnecessary.

    I like the NBR if for no other reason than it recognized “The Painted Veil” when nobody else seemed to.

    Still, I think it’s unfair to call it a great precursor when you’re talking about a top 10 list. I wonder, really, how many movies get any amount of significant support for Best Picture from their studios? I would guess that number is between 15-18.

    In 10 years, 36 of the 50 Best Picture nominees were recognized on a NBR Top 10 list (data from Sasha’s Awards Daily). Is that really that impressive, given that we’re talking about nominating 10 movies … rather than just 5 or 6?

  • 6 12-01-2008 at 2:17 pm

    Rob said...

    Wow. Some people get so angry. Errm.

    Well I always find their choices interesting, and on plenty of occasions I’ve liked their picks. In all fairness the Academy have made a disimilar number of stupid decisons over the years. I’m not sure there is that much difference really.

    The globes have made stupid BP choices, so have BAFTA, the Academy most certainly have.

    In 2000 and 2002 I certainly agreed with their Best Film of the Year choices.

  • 7 12-01-2008 at 2:29 pm

    Jonathan Spuij said...

    I can’t imagine that really being Sasha. Right? Right? Please say it ain’t so!

  • 8 12-01-2008 at 2:30 pm

    Jared Rodrigues said...

    I definitely wouldn’t have taken it to the point that Sasha Stone took it, but I do think that you shouldn’t take it(the NBR being pointless) so seriously, Kris. What I love so much about critics awards lists is that their just fun to read(except of course when they get repetitive, but t’s still something to look forward to). Of course they dont mean shi t , but you can just have fun with them,and not look back if you dont want to

  • 9 12-01-2008 at 3:04 pm

    Ivan said...

    “how do you wrestle with forecasting an organization that chalks up “The Bucket List” as one of the year’s best? ”

    The same way you wrestle with forecasting an organization that chalks up “CHOCOLAT, SEABUSCUIT, CRASH” as one of the year´s best.

  • 10 12-01-2008 at 3:18 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Sasha: There was no offense meant to you here. Don’t get so personal. It’s the NBR that I don’t care about, the rest, I’m on board. But these guys are so bought and paid for it’s irritating.

  • 11 12-01-2008 at 3:19 pm

    Jordan Minnesota said...

    I highly doubt that was Sasha lashing out at Kris a few posts back.

    Kris used to write for Awards Daily (Oscarwatch, whatever), and in all the years I’ve been reading both of them, neither have ever needlessly chewed someone out. Especially over something as insignificant as NBR malaise. I smell a troll.

  • 12 12-01-2008 at 3:22 pm

    Brian Kinsley said...

    The Reader wins.

    Even though they are bought, their win to Iwo Jima certainly pushed that film into the race that otherwise it might have slipped by.

  • 13 12-01-2008 at 3:24 pm

    Jordan Minnesota said...

    Oops, sorry Kris. Missed you by a minute there. Who knows though, maybe it was Sasha. We all have bad days though I guess. A level headed response from you was no surprise though.

    Aaaaaaaaaaanyway, I think Milk takes the NBR and Defiance unexpectedly shows up in the Top 10.

  • 14 12-01-2008 at 4:29 pm

    Brian Kinsley said...

    NBR do love their Zwick.

    I bet Eastwood wins director, considering he’s directed two movies and NBR definitely love their winners to have multiple films.

  • 15 12-01-2008 at 4:43 pm

    sasha stone said...

    No, it’s no troll. I sensed in Kris’ post a nasty comment towards the sites that are hosting NBR predictions. If you think it’s too harsh, so be it. Perhaps it sounded more harshly than I was thinking while I typed it. The truth is, Kris does seem to really hate what he’s doing and if he hates it he shouldn’t do it. Usually I don’t bother posting here at all — if I have something to say to Kris I usually just email him but this post seemed particularly mean-spirited.

    Also, do you really want to call the group that awarded All the President’s Men over Rocky, Citizen Kane over How Green was My Valley, A Place in the Sun over An American in Paris “bought and paid for” or whatever else you are throwing around.

    I did take offense to what he wrote, sorry, but that’s just the way it is.

  • 16 12-01-2008 at 5:37 pm

    Scott Ward said...

    who crapped in your cornflakes?

  • 17 12-01-2008 at 7:16 pm

    Dan T. said...

    “Also, do you really want to call the group that awarded All the President’s Men over Rocky, Citizen Kane over How Green was My Valley, A Place in the Sun over An American in Paris “bought and paid for” or whatever else you are throwing around.”

    But that was the NBR back then, Kris hates the NBR now.

  • 18 12-01-2008 at 7:39 pm

    Andrew L. said...

    Heh. I love semantics.

    Anyway… my prediction:

    Slumdog Millionaire*winner*
    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    Rachel Getting Married
    The Reader
    Revolutionary Road
    The Wrestler

  • 19 12-01-2008 at 7:53 pm

    daveylow said...

    I know people like to dismiss the NBR but some of the voters do actually know a lot about films, I know a film professor who votes for the awards. But of course, there are others who are probably less qualified to choose what is the best of the year.

  • 20 12-01-2008 at 7:54 pm

    Andre said...

    the NBR is such a weird group sometimes, ‘cuz they give their Best Pic to the obvious choice (at the time), but their other awards are second only to the Golden Sattelites in terms of oddness. I have an awful time predicting them as well…

  • 21 12-01-2008 at 8:01 pm

    Ben said...

    I’ll stick very close to what Karger has, only taking out his predicted winner Benjamin Button (remember no LOTR film made their top ten so I think there may be a fantasy bias here) and replacing it with Defiance (since Zwick does so well with the group), with Frost/Nixon as the winner.

    Dark Knight showing up wouldn’t surprise me (after all Bourne made it last year) and it would be #11 in my predictions, but for now I’ll leave it off even if I’ll be kicking myself if it makes it in (at least I have Gran Torino in there, so Warner Bros. wouldn’t go home empty-handed).

    Frost/Nixon (winner)
    Gran Torino
    Rachel Getting Married
    The Reader
    Revolutionary Road
    Slumdog Millionaire
    The Visitor

  • 22 12-01-2008 at 8:14 pm

    Andrew L. said...

    I still don’t get the buzz for Gran Torino. You can make an argument for Eastwood, fine, but the film itself looks like a bad Karate Kid redux with torque. Not even Clint Eastwood could carry a movie that would, by any other means, be considered an SNL digital short.

    Then again… like mentioned previously, they did nominate The Bucket List.

  • 23 12-01-2008 at 8:16 pm

    Shawn said...

    Eh, Sasha’s right.

    I enjoy reading and visiting Kris’ site, but he does bitch and moan a lot.

  • 24 12-01-2008 at 8:25 pm

    Zac said...

    My predicted NBR Top 10:

    Che (My NGNG pick)
    The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    The Dark Knight
    Gran Torino
    Revolutionary Road
    Slumdog Millionaire
    The Visitor

  • 25 12-01-2008 at 8:32 pm

    Speaking English said...

    Andrew, the buzz for “Gran Torino” is short and simple:

    People have seen it. And praised it. No matter how it looks in the trailer it’s been seen and gotten good word. That’s all that matters.

  • 26 12-02-2008 at 3:01 am

    Jonathan Spuij said...

    When will people stop foulmouthing a film judging on its trailer. During the summer it’s okay because one knows what is coming. But not with Clint or anyone else up for award concideration. Geez.

  • 27 12-02-2008 at 7:06 am

    Jeff Cash said...

    For the record, I am a fan of both AwardsDaily and InContention who thinks that in this case Kris is completely right. Besides, attacking an organization is not nearly tantamount to leveling an attack against an actual person. Kris loves this business, but he loves the side of the business that threatens to be drowned out if the studios control everything (which is closer and closer to reality). There are good and evil forces in every industry; I’d only tell someone to get out of a certain business if they could not identify with anyone.

  • 28 12-02-2008 at 9:40 am

    Sawyer said...

    I like Revolutionary Road’s chances here. Milk is also a possiblity. They like heavy drama at the NBRs.

  • 29 12-02-2008 at 9:44 am

    Sawyer said...

    Revolutionary Road *winner*
    Gran Torino
    The Dark Knight
    Rachel Getting Married
    Curious Case of Benjamin Button
    The Wrestler
    Slumdog Millionare
    Synechdoche, New York

  • 30 12-02-2008 at 7:14 pm

    Zan said...

    Kris is right; the NBR is a waste of time. I’d rather Kris put his time and effort into a meaningful column.

    Basically, people are coming up with ten nominees to determine one winner, and that winner sometimes gets into the Best Picture five-way race. If that doesn’t make your mouth water, what will?!

  • 31 12-04-2008 at 12:05 am

    Garrett said...

    Zan said: “and that winner sometimes gets into the Best Picture five-way race.”

    For the past seven years (and the majority of years since the NBR was formed), the winner of Best Film named by the NBR has what I would call a “safe spot” among the five nominees. I look at it as a lock. It is this very reason that some people, including myself, find the NBR a crucial part of the Oscar season.