Gurus back on the scene

Posted by · 1:55 pm · September 23rd, 2008

It looks like David Poland beat The Envelope to the punch again this year with his collective of Oscar prognosticators, the Gurus o’ Gold.  I’m back on the team again this year after missing the boat last time around.

Poland has done away with the Gurus 2.0 experiment, which was an interesting look at what the peripheral awards sites were thinking.  I guess he decided it better to whittle it down to a refined list of guessers, while The Envelope’s thing is having casting a huge net.  There are pros and cons of each approach, but at this point in the year, we’re all guessing anyway.

I was surprised to see “Slumdog Millionaire” make it into the Best Picture predicted five with so much authority.  And despite my recent change of tack on the major category hopes of “The Dark Knight,” I certainly wasn’t anticipating a tie for #6.

(The Gurus’ top 10 predicted Best Picture hopefuls with commentary after the jump.)

Gurus o\' Gold: September 23, 2008

And Poland’s mash-up of the Toronto films, with commentary.  More at Movie City News, with acting category rankings (and surprises) as well.

Points of interest:

I LOVE how Peter Howell has predicted Christian Bale in the supporting actor category for “The Dark Knight.”  Not gonna happen, obviously, but it’s a ballsy, interesting pick.  But he IS picking Ledger in the lead category, and we all know where that started.

To my surprise, the Gurus are in agreement with me on the Clint Eastwood lead actor nomination with little else for the film at this point.

I’m surprised Debra Winger even made the cut in supporting actress.  Her five or ten minutes amount to nothing beyond the film’s most embarassing scene, while the real gem, Rosemarie Dewitt made the top 5 cut (not so surprising there, though).

I think that Eugene Hernandez will get some company before long with the Michelle Williams pick in Best Actress.

The “pretty boys” — DiCaprio and Pitt — doomed to the sidelines despite considerable talent are just that, on the sidelines, in the Best Actor category.

Thoughts on the Gurus?

→ 10 Comments Tags: , , , | Filed in: Daily

10 responses so far

  • 1 9-23-2008 at 2:18 pm

    Leone said...

    What a bizarre line up for the end of September. I feel like because so many of the year-end releases didn’t go to the fall festivals, the films that did show there (RACHEL GETTING MARRIED, SLUMDOG MILLIONAIRE, THE WRESTLER) got a serious bump. Anne Hathaway in @2, tied with 5-time nominee Kate Winslet? Seems a little off base to me. And Sally Hawkins seems low on this list probably because it doesn’t feel new. Rourke at #1?!? No way, no how. The movie has a lot to overcome before he becomes the front runner when actors like Sean Penn, Frank Langella and Leonardo Dicaprio are in the mix. Me thinks it’s either Viola Davis or Amy Adams for DOUBT, not both. And putting Taraji P. Henson, Vera Farmiga and ELIZABETH BANKS for supporting actress without even mentioning Kathy Bates for REVOLUTIONARY ROAD seems way off.

  • 2 9-23-2008 at 2:24 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    Rourke is #1 right now, there’s really no question about that. No one has seen any of the movies you are talking about, so why place him any lower on the list than unproven commodities?

    Henson has a hell of a role n “Button” (and was the most lauded aspect of the footage shown at Telluride), while Vera Farmiga has received great notices for “Striped.” Banks is unseen, but based on the script, it’s a good bet, but why are those worth mentioning any less than Bates?

  • 3 9-23-2008 at 2:34 pm

    The Z said...

    Why no director poll?

    Although I suppose the vote would match up with picture this early on. Nonetheless…

  • 4 9-23-2008 at 2:39 pm

    Kristopher Tapley said...

    It’ll come soon. Probably next week, along with screenplays. That’s the usual progression I think.

  • 5 9-23-2008 at 2:45 pm

    M.Harris said...

    Really no surprises on the top 10 films,the minor surprise is how high”Slumdog Millionare” is on the list,but I think that it should be on the list.I have no problem with Mickey Rourke(imo) being the front-runner,I’m taking the word for what it is worth,it doesn’t mean that he can’t get caught from behind LOL.He’s sprinted out the fastest and you have to look at the Best Actor race over the last 3 to 4 years it seems that the early favorites(Foxx,Hoffman,Whitaker) have held on until the end,with the exception of Lewis last year who’s movie didn’t come out until later.But I say to myself there’s another considered “great” of our time staring in something later this year called “Milk” who could possible not only catch Rourke but pass him.

  • 6 9-23-2008 at 3:12 pm

    Jonathan Spuij said...

    Well like I said earlier there’s still very little confirmed on the Actor Cat placings, especially for the TDK crowd.
    BTW, another thought occuring to me. What if Ledger would be snubbed á la Nicholson in The Departed and a sneak from behind by Oldman would happen?

  • 7 9-23-2008 at 3:32 pm

    Bobby said...

    Wow, the Best Actor race is very crowded. I would have thought that Brad pitt would be higher considering the complexity of the role with the different ages, and Dicaprico always seems to get a nomination.

    Sad to say it but I dont think peter o toole or richard jenkins have a chance of breaking into the top five and Del toro and Brolin’s movies are surronded by too much controversy.

  • 8 9-23-2008 at 5:38 pm

    N8 said...

    I love Pete Howell, but WB would be nuts to put Ledger in lead. There’s just too much competition, and even if he snuck in, he could never win. He’s gotta be supporting. He’s assured a nom there, and stands a chance at winning.

  • 9 9-24-2008 at 2:05 am

    Guy Lodge said...

    Interesting that the top 5 in Best Actress lead by such a wide margin — I still suspect at least one of those (Hathaway or Jolie especially) isn’t going to make the cut in the end.

    And Anne Thompson hasn’t gone with Frank Langella… I’m in good company!

  • 10 9-24-2008 at 4:31 am

    Glenn said...

    The only thing one can get out of a list like this at this stage is, usually, to subtract at least two and replace them with something else because you’ll do just a good in the predicting stakes. If these five are the nominated five then I will punch myself.