#9
Mel Gibson for “Apocalypto”

Mel Gibson’s latest dead language epic is set up at Disney just like Nolan’s “The Prestige,” but it also has the distinguishing characteristic of a December opening, and, likely, being the studio’s lead horse hopeful. Now, Gibson’s 2004 opus “The Passion of the Christ” found its way to a number of nominations despite a flood of controversy. “Apocalypto” looks to be just as daring in scale if somewhat less divisive in its subject matter. It seems like just the sort of sprawl that can be recognized by the directors if left flapping in the wind where Best Picture is concerned.

#8
Richard Linklater for “Fast Food Nation”

Richard Linklater has, yet again, been a busy bee this year. “A Scanner Darkly” is already in theaters, and eyes have already been set upon the upcoming “Fast Food Nation.” Some have compared it to “Traffic” in tone, and while Linklater’s effort as a writer might be the film’s best shot at Oscar recognition, the nature of this tale, the work that has to go into translating Eric Schlosser’s dense work of journalism onto the screen, it takes an assured and guided hand. Perhaps if it lands as a critical triumph this will be an arena Fox Searchlight can secure a notice.

#7
Darren Aronofsky for “The Fountain”

“The Fountain” is a project that really could go either way. I’ve read the script, and it has to be one of the most difficult films to visualize tangibly. The trailer has finally hit, and the project is one that Warner Bros. obviously believes in. “Requiem for a Dream” was well received, especially where Ellen Burstyn’s performance was concerned (a drastically overrated one, in my opinion). Some might relegate “The Fountain” to tech notices or nothing at all, but I feel support from the directors is not out of the question. Even still, it seems like we have to go back to the work of Kubrick to find such genre-bending antics held on high by the Academy at large.

#6
William Friedkin for “Bug”

While all the buzz for William Friedkin’s “Bug” seems to fall on performer Ashley Judd, most seem to be missing the notion that a return to form for someone like William Friedkin could be construed as a massive deal to the Academy. After a solid one-two punch in the early 1970s (1971’s “The French Connection” and 1973’s “The Exorcist”), Friedkin slipped far off the “player” radar following the lackluster “Sorcerer.” Word out of Cannes on “Bug” has been quite positive, and in a stable somewhat empty this year, Lionsgate might push for top tier recognition hard on this one.

#5
Francis Ford Coppola for “Youth Without Youth”

Francis Ford Coppola has been sadly M.I.A. for nine years. NINE YEARS. It’s not a Terrence Malick drought or anything, and “Jack” aside, I’m sure I’m not alone in saying the guy has been missed. “Youth Without Youth” is an extremely unconventional choice for this multi-lauded Oscar winner to jump back into the fire with, but it might just be challenging enough to do the trick. No distributor is lined up yet, and the likelihood that the film will be bumped to the 2007 slate increases daily, but should the respect come back in droves, a nomination for Best Director would not surprise.

#4
Sofia Coppola for “Marie Antoinette”

Isn’t that cute? Daddy’s right on her heels. It’s still to be seen what the Academy reaction to Sofia Coppola's “Marie Antoinette” will be, but it seems a bit fated we’ll see a gigantic schism amongst the critical reception. Some might think the comparison here would be “Moulin Rouge!” (a film that, to be fair, missed out on a Best Director nod). That might be solid ground to stand on, given the tonal clash “Marie Antoinette” is said to be. At the end of the day, Sony has a packed schedule. But if there is a solid amount of respect for the film, Coppola could capitalize and become the first woman to grab a second nomination for Best Director.

#3
Marc Forster for “Stranger Than Fiction”

Zach Helm’s screenplay for “Stranger Than Fiction” is one of the most audacious and creative pieces of writing to come along in some time. No stranger (no pun intended) to the Academy’s praises, Marc Forster has the opportunity to take a lot of credit for this story, one that is a difficult one to realize on screen and register with an audience. After getting snubbed for Best Picture nominee “Finding Neverland” in 2004, this might be the perfect opportunity for an “I’m sorry” from the directors’ branch, but I have a feeling this film will be recognized as unique and beautiful on its own terms, regardless of past slights.

#2
Alejandro González Iñárritu for “Babel”

The final two directors on this list are so interchangeable as potential lone director contenders (in my view) that it’s scary. Following the Oscar nominated successes “Amorres Perros” and “21 Grams,” Alejandro González Iñárritu unleashes a true masterwork in “Babel” later in the fall. Some think the film, his most accessible to date, could receive widespread Academy recognition. I’m not so sure about that, and in fact I expect the film to go the route of his 2003 effort with a few minor notices. However, barring a critical split that could become ugly, Best Director is a category Iñárritu could surely own when all is said and done.

#1
Paul Greengrass for “United 93”

“United 93” remains the most critically acclaimed film of the year, and while I have serious doubts about the film’s potential Best Picture success, Paul Greengrass is a filmmaker who showed a hell of a lot of fortitude with this effort. The two 9/11 films entering the marketplace this year (and there might be three at the end of the day) are drastically different but equally emotional in what they leave behind. That might be the final point of analysis, and as I write these words, I suddenly feel remiss in leaving Oliver Stone’s name off the list. Regardless, I think we will see “United 93” make a definite mark during the film awards season, and I expect the Academy to take notice and, against typicality, feel as if they have a responsibility to recognize the film. Greengrass as the “lone director” seems to fit like a glove.

(COMING NEXT WEEK: Updated predictions, full charts in every category, archived lists of acting contenders and the first full Oscar column since March's year-in-advance commentary!)